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Article 24 - 1939 Paul Revere Heritage Site Report FINAL 4 13 2017
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Source page 121
ConsultEcon, Inc.
Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017
APPENDIX B
FIVE-YEAR MID-RANGE VISITATION SCENARIO TABLES
Paul Revere Heritage Site B-1Source page 122
ConsultEcon, Inc.
Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017
Appendix Table B-1
Five-Year Visitation by Type and Ticket Price and Membership Assumptions under a
Mid-Range Visitation Scenario
Museum and Cultural Center at the Paul Revere Heritage Site
Low-Range Scenario Stabilized
% to Total Visitation Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Regular General and Group Admissions
Adult 28.0% 25.0% 22.0% 22.0% 22.0%
Seniors (65+) 16.0% 13.5% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0%
Children (ages 3-17) / Student 12.0% 10.5% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0%
Student Groups 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%
Adult Group 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
Members / Corp Members 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
Free / Complimentary 1/ 6.2% 5.5% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Programs, Events and Rentals
Arts and Cultural Programs 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Special Events 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
Facility Rentals 18.8% 22.5% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Visitation By Type
Regular General and Group Admissions
Adult 8,050 6,875 5,500 5,555 5,610
Seniors (65+) 4,600 3,713 3,000 3,030 3,060
Children (ages 3-17) / Student 3,450 2,888 2,250 2,273 2,295
Student Groups 1,150 1,375 1,500 1,515 1,530
Adult Group 575 825 1,000 1,010 1,020
Members / Corp Members 2,875 2,750 2,500 2,525 2,550
Free / Complimentary 1/ 1,783 1,513 1,250 1,263 1,275
Programs, Events and Rentals
Arts and Cultural Programs 288 550 750 758 765
Special Events 575 825 1,000 1,010 1,020
Facility Rentals 5,405 6,188 6,250 6,313 6,375
Total 28,750 27,500 25,000 25,250 25,500
Achieved Per Capita Ticket Revenue 2/
Regular General and Group Admissions
Adult $7.50 $7.50 $7.90 $7.90 $8.30
Seniors (65+) $6.50 $6.50 $6.80 $6.80 $7.10
Children (ages 3-17) / Student $4.00 $4.00 $4.20 $4.20 $4.40
Student Groups $4.00 $4.00 $4.20 $4.20 $4.40
Adult Group $5.50 $5.50 $5.80 $5.80 $6.10
Members / Corp Members $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Free / Complimentary 1/ $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Programs, Events and Rentals
Arts and Cultural Programs $15.00 $15.00 $15.80 $15.80 $16.60
Special Events $25.00 $25.00 $26.30 $26.30 $27.60
Facility Rentals $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Per Capita Admissions Revenue, before
Coupons and Discounts $4.54 $4.59 $4.94 $4.94 $5.18
Less Coupons & Discounts ($0.23) ($0.23) ($0.25) ($0.25) ($0.26)
Per Capita Admissions Revenue, After
Coupons and Discounts $4.31 $4.36 $4.69 $4.69 $4.92
Memberships
Number of Memberships 360 340 310 320 320
2/
Average Regular Membership Revenue $113 $113 $119 $119 $125
Average Corporate Membership Revenue 2/ $1,000 $1,000 $1,050 $1,050 $1,103
Per Capita Retail/Food Sales 3/
Gross Retail Sales Per Capita $2.00 $2.04 $2.08 $2.12 $2.16
Vending Sales Per Capita $0.25 $0.26 $0.27 $0.28 $0.29
Note: Year 1 shown in 2017 dollars.
1/ Includes children under 3, VIPs, business visitors, and other non-cultural program attendees given free admission.
2/ Ticket prices and membership fees are assumed to increase at a rate of 4.5% every other year.
3/ Assumed to increase each year by the rate of inflation.
Source: ConsultEcon, Inc.
Paul Revere Heritage Site B-2Source page 123
ConsultEcon, Inc.
Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017
Appendix Table B-2
Five-Year Earned Revenue Potential under a Mid Range Visitation Scenario
Museum and Cultural Center at the Paul Revere Heritage Site
Stabilized
Low Range Scenario YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 YEAR 4 YEAR 5
TOTAL ATTENDANCE 28,750 27,500 25,000 25,250 25,500
Regular and Supportive Memberships 360 340 310 320 320
Corporate Memberships 8 9 10 10 10
EARNED REVENUE
Museum/Community Arts
Admissions / Program Fees $123,999 $119,848 $117,373 $118,546 $125,582
Retail, Net 30,360 29,621 27,456 28,264 29,082
Memberships 40,680 38,420 36,890 38,080 40,000
Corporate Memberships / Sponsorship 8,000 9,000 10,500 10,500 11,030
Facility Rental
Real Estate Rent 96,000 97,920 99,878 101,876 103,913
Facility Rentals, Room Revenue 1/ 60,000 61,200 62,424 63,672 64,946
Catering, Net 40,000 40,800 41,616 42,448 43,297
Vending 10,000 10,200 10,404 10,612 10,824
TOTAL EARNED REVENUE $409,039 $407,009 $406,541 $413,999 $428,676
Rounded to nearest $1,000 $409,000 $407,000 $407,000 $414,000 $429,000
NOTE: Year 1 is in 2017 dollars with future years at rate of annual inflation. Revenue categories are rounded to the nearest $1,000.
1/ Facility rentals and catering would ramp up in early years, unlike admission which is an initial surge of attendance, requiring the museum to grow the facility
rental business over time. For the purposes of this analysis, facility rental room revenue and catering are assumed at 75% of a stable year in Year 1 and 90% of a
stable year in Year 2.
Source: ConsultEcon, Inc.
Paul Revere Heritage Site B-3Source page 124
ConsultEcon, Inc.
Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017
Appendix Table B-3
Five-Year Operating Expenses under a Mid-Range Visitation Scenario
Museum and Cultural Center at the Paul Revere Heritage Site
Low Range Scenario Stabilized
Operating Expenses YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 YEAR 4 YEAR 5
Salaries (FTE, PTE) $342,250 $352,518 $363,093 $373,986 $385,205
Overhead and Benefits 85,015 87,565 90,192 92,898 95,685
Telecommunications (Phone and Internet) 6,000 6,120 6,242 6,367 6,495
Equipment Rental/ Lease 4,000 4,080 4,162 4,245 4,330
Travel/Professional Development/Entertainment 4,920 5,018 5,119 5,221 5,326
Dues & Subscriptions & Prof. Affiliations 2,153 2,196 2,239 2,284 2,330
Professional Services 9,600 9,792 9,988 10,188 10,391
Supplies & Materials 2,400 2,448 2,497 2,547 2,598
Rent 1 1 1 1 1
Insurance 12,694 12,948 13,207 13,471 13,740
Utilities (Water/sewer, gas, electric) 25,388 25,896 26,414 26,942 27,481
Repairs and Maintenance 25,388 25,896 26,414 26,942 27,481
Advertising and Promotion 28,750 28,050 26,010 26,796 27,602
Printing, Publications and Postage 7,188 7,013 6,503 6,699 6,901
School Programs 2,300 2,805 3,121 3,215 3,312
Changing Exhibits 20,000 20,400 20,808 21,224 21,649
Exhibit Reinvestment 10,063 9,818 9,104 9,378 9,661
Other Operating Expenses 12,310 12,556 12,807 13,064 13,325
1/
Early Year Expenses 18,013 9,227
Subtotal Operating Expenses $618,431 $624,345 $627,920 $645,468 $663,511
Capital Reserves $30,922 $31,217 $31,396 $32,273 $33,176
Total Operating Costs $649,353 $655,563 $659,316 $677,741 $696,687
Rounded to nearest $1,000 $649,000 $656,000 $659,000 $678,000 $697,000
Note: Year 1 shown in 2017 dollars.
1/ Early Year expenses assumed at 3% in Year 1 and 1.5% in Year 2.
Source: ConsultEcon, Inc.
Paul Revere Heritage Site B-4Source page 125
ConsultEcon, Inc.
Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017
APPENDIX C
ALTERNATIVE OPERATING SCENARIO
This section presents the net operating income summary table if the museum and cultural
center is in the Barn rather than the Rolling Mill. Key operating assumptions that impact the
net operating income include:
♦ Reduction of stable year, mid-range attendance by 10% from 25,000 to 22,500,
which in turn yields a reduction in earned revenue due to the museum and cultural
center from $177,000 to $160,500.
♦ Increase in restaurant rent from $96,000 to $165,000 due to the overall increase in
net leasable area. This increase in restaurant rent accounts for most of the increase
in revenue due to facility rentals.
♦ Reduction in operating expenses from $670,000 to $625,000 due to lower
operating costs associated with the smaller square footage.
♦ Overall, non-earned revenue required for breakeven operation decreases from
$276,000 to $181,500.
Data in Table C-1 shows the net operating income summary of museum and cultural center
operations in the Barn as opposed to the Rolling Mill.
Suitability of the Barn and the Rolling Mill for Museum Use and Restaurant Use
Because of the adaptive reuse context, the proposed museum and cultural center and
restaurant uses have pros and cons about how they would fit into the available building space.
Data in Table C-2 show the pros and cons of the museum and cultural center use in the
Rolling Mill and in the Barn. Data in Table C-3 show the pros and cons of the restaurant use
in the Rolling Mill and in the Barn.
Paul Revere Heritage Site C-1Source page 126
ConsultEcon, Inc.
Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017
Appendix Table C-1
Summary of Revenues and Expenses Under a Mid-Range Visitation Scenario
Museum and Cultural Center at the Paul Revere Heritage Site
Percent to
Stable Year of Total
Operations, Operating
2017 Dollars Expenses
Mid-Range Visitation 22,500
Earned Revenue
Museum / Community Art Center $160,500 25.7%
Facility Rentals 282,000 45.1%
Total Earned Revenue $442,500 70.8%
Operating Expenses $625,000 100.0%
Net Income Before Non-Earned Revenues ($182,500) -29.2%
1/
Non-Earned Revenue Requirement $182,500 29.2%
Net Income After Non-Earned Revenue
Requirement $0 0.0%
Earned Revenue as a Percent of Operating Expenses 71%
1/ The difference between the estimated operating expenses and the earned revenue potential.
Potential sources of contributed, non-earned revenue include government and private gifts, grants, in-
kind and other donations, and proceeds from investments and interest.
Source: ConsultEcon, Inc.
Paul Revere Heritage Site C-2Source page 127
ConsultEcon, Inc.
Management & Economic Insight
April 13, 2017
Appendix Table C-2
Pros and Cons of the Museum and Cultural Center Use
in the Rolling Mill and in the Barn
Museum / Rolling Mill Museum / Barn
Pros
Pros
- Historic building context
- Single floor for ease of visitor
navigation
- Sufficient space for identified
market potential
- Community support for museum in
Rolling Mill
Cons
- Loading access poor
- Second floor has limited usable
space
- Higher operating costs than in
Barn
Loading access through basement
Lower operating costs than in the
Rolling Mill
Cons
Smaller amount of space may
constrain market potential of
museum and eliminate arts and
cultural programming
Reduced donor interest, appeal and
community support
Limited space for facility rentals
Paul Revere Heritage Site
C-3
[Original embedded text, retained for comparison]
ConsultEcon, Inc.
Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017
Appendix Table C-2
Pros and Cons of the Museum and Cultural Center Use
in the Rolling Mill and in the Barn
Paul Revere Heritage Site C-3Source page 128
ConsultEcon, Inc.
Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017
Appendix Table C-3
Pros and Cons of the Restaurant Use in the Rolling Mill and in the Barn
Restaurant / Rolling Mill Restaurant / Barn
Pros Pros
- Single floor, flat floor - Loading access through basement
- Historic Building Ambiance - Floors offer opportunity for
- More space for destination appeal differentiated program areas
- More commercial rent potential - Size potentially more manageable
for a restaurant than in Rolling Mill
Cons
- Second floor has limited usable Cons
space - Multiple floors may present
- May be too large for market challenge for service
potential
Paul Revere Heritage Site
C-4
[Original embedded text, retained for comparison]
ConsultEcon, Inc.
Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017
Appendix Table C-3
Pros and Cons of the Restaurant Use in the Rolling Mill and in the Barn
Paul Revere Heritage Site C-4