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Article 24 - 1939 Paul Revere Heritage Site Report FINAL 4 13 2017
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ConsultEcon, Inc. Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017 Paul Revere Heritage Site Feasibility Study and Business Plan FINAL REPORT Prepared by: ConsultEcon, Inc. Prepared for: Town of Canton April 2017
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ConsultEcon, Inc.
Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Section Page
TABLE OF CONTENTS i
LIST OF TABLES ii
LIST OF APPENDIX TABLES iv
LIST OF FIGURES v
LIST OF APPENDIX FIGURES vi
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1
Section I INTRODUCTION AND ASSUMPTIONS I-1
Section II PAUL REVERE HERITAGE LOCATION CONTEXT AND PROJECT
OVERVIEW II-1
Section III MARKET CONTEXT III-1
Section IV GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT OPTIONS IV-1
Section V VISITATION POTENTIAL AND PHYSICAL PLANNING PARAMETERS V-1
Section VI OPERATING POTENTIAL VI-1
APPENDIX A CASE STUDIES A-1
APPENDIX B FIVE-YEAR MID-RANGE VISITATION SCENARIO TABLES B-1
APPENDIX C ALTERNATIVE OPERATING SCENARIO C-1
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Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017
LIST OF TABLES
Table Page
Table II-1 Proposed Housing Profile - Maximum Bedroom Count Plymouth
Rubber Redevelopment II-8
Table II-2 Illustrative Pre-Design Program of Spaces for the Barn and the
Rolling Mill Paul Revere Heritage Site Subject to Further Refinement -
For Illustrative Purposes Only II-17
Table III-1 Population Trend in Resident Market Area – 2010, 2016, 2021
Paul Revere Heritage Site III-3
Table III-2 Age Profile in Resident Market Area – 2016 Paul Revere Heritage Site III-4
Table III-3 School Age Children in Resident Market Area – 2016 Paul Revere
Heritage Site III-5
Table III-4 Household Profile in Resident Market Area – 2016 Paul Revere
Heritage Site III-6
Table III-5 Income Profile in Resident Market Area – 2016 Paul Revere Heritage
Site III-7
Table III-6 Hotel Inventory, Canton Area III-11
Table III-7 Massachusetts NPS Historical Sites III-14
Table III-8 Types of Event Venues in Canton Area III-23
Table V-1 Visitation Potential in a Stable Year of Operations Paul Revere
Heritage Site V-6
Table V-2 Five-Year Facility Visitation Potential Paul Revere Heritage Site V-7
Table V-3 Estimated Monthly Visitation Distribution Paul Revere Heritage Site V-8
Table V-4 Facility Sizing Analysis based on Demand Parameters Paul Revere
Heritage Site V-9
Table VI-1 Visitation by Type and Ticket Price and Membership Assumptions in a
Mid-Range Visitation Scenario in a Stable Year in 2017 Dollars Museum
and Cultural Center at PRHS VI-5
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LIST OF TABLES (continued)
Table Page
Table VI-2 Operating Assumptions in Current Dollars under a Mid-Range
Scenario Museum and Cultural Center at PRHS VI-6
Table VI-3 Earned Revenue Potential Museum and Cultural Center
at PRHS VI-12
Table VI-4 Illustrative Personnel Positions and Personnel Costs by Department
Museum and Cultural Center at PRHS VI-15
Table VI-5 Operating Expense Estimates in a Stable Year in 2016 Value of the
Dollar Under a Mid-Range Scenario Museum and Cultural Center at
PRHS VI-19
Table VI-6 Summary of Revenues and Expenses in a Stable Year in 2016 Value of
the Dollar Under a Mid-Range Scenario Museum and Cultural Center at
PRHS VI-21
Table VI-7 5-Year Net Income Summary under a Mid-Range Scenario Museum
and Cultural Center at PRHS VI-22
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LIST OF APPENDIX TABLES
Table Page
Table A-1 Metropolitan Waterworks Museum Boston, MA A-7
Table A-2 Dedham Historical Society Dedham, MA A-10
Table A-2 Dedham Historical Society Dedham, MA A-11
Table A-3 Eleanor Cabot Bradley Estate Canton, MA A-13
Table A-4 Park City Museum Park City, UT A-17
Table A-5 Museum of Durham History Durham, NC A-20
Table B-1 Five-Year Visitation by Type and Ticket Price and Membership
Assumptions under a Mid-Range Visitation Scenario Museum and
Cultural Center at the Paul Revere Heritage Site B-2
Table B-2 Five-Year Earned Revenue Potential under a Mid Range Visitation
Scenario Museum and Cultural Center at the Paul Revere Heritage Site B-3
Table B-3 Five-Year Operating Expenses under a Mid-Range Visitation Scenario
Museum and Cultural Center at the Paul Revere Heritage Site B-4
Table C-1 Summary of Revenues and Expenses Under a Mid-Range Visitation
Scenario Museum and Cultural Center at the Paul Revere Heritage Site C-2
Table C-2 Pros and Cons of the Museum and Cultural Center Use in the Rolling Mill
and in the Barn C-3
Table C-3 Pros and Cons of the Restaurant Use in the Rolling Mill and in the Barn C-4
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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure Page
Figure II-1 Paul Revere Heritage Site – Regional Context II-2
Figure II-2 Town of Canton and Surrounding Towns II-3
Figure II-3 Town of Canton Regional Highway Context II-4
Figure II-4 Paul Revere Heritage Site – Town of Canton Suburban Context II-6
Figure II-5 Satellite View of Plymouth Rubber Site, Location of PRHS and
Canton Center II-7
Figure II-6 Site Plan for the Plymouth Rubber Property II-9
Figure II-7 Site Plan for PRHS II-10
Figure II-8 First Floor Plan for the Barn at the Plymouth Rubber Development
Property (aka Paul Revere Heritage Site) II-11
Figure II-9 Second Floor Plan for the Barn at the Plymouth Rubber Development
Property (aka Paul Revere Heritage Site) II-12
Figure II-10 Basement Floor Plan for the Barn at the Plymouth Rubber
Development Property (aka Paul Revere Heritage Site) II-13
Figure II-11 First Floor Plan for the Rolling Mill at the Plymouth Rubber
Development Property (aka Paul Revere Heritage Site) II-14
Figure II-12 Second Floor Plan for the Rolling Mill at the Plymouth Rubber
Development Property (aka Paul Revere Heritage Site) II-15
Figure III-1 Map of Resident Market Area – 10-, 20-, and 30-Minute Drive Times
Paul Revere Heritage Site III-2
Figure III-2 Visitor Origin of Domestic Visitors to Boston, 2013 III-8
Figure III-3 Seasonality of Boston Hotel Occupancy January 2015 – October 2016 III-9
Figure III-4 Hotel Inventory, Canton Area III-12
Figure III-5 Restaurants in Canton III-21
Figure III-6 Restaurants in South Canton III-22
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LIST OF APPENDIX FIGURES
Figure Page
Figure A-1 American Museum of Tort Law Winsted, CT A-2
Figure A-2 Charles River Museum of Industry & Innovation Waltham, MA A-2
Figure A-3 Edison and Ford Winter Estates Fort Myers, FL A-3
Figure A-4 Eli Whitney Museum and Workshop Hamden, CT A-4
Figure A-5 Garst Museum and National Annie Oakley Center Greenville, OH A-4
Figure A-6 Highfield Hall & Gardens Falmouth, MA A-5
Figure A-7 Slater Mill Pawtucket, RI A-6
Figure A-8 Metropolitan Waterworks Museum Boston, MA A-8
Figure A-9 Metropolitan Waterworks Museum Interior Boston, MA A-9
Figure A-10 Dedham Historical Society Dedham, MA A-11
Figure A-11 Dedham Historical Society, Program Attendees Dedham, MA A-12
Figure A-12 Eleanor Cabot Bradley Estate – Front of House Canton, MA A-15
Figure A-13 Eleanor Cabot Bradley Estate – Wedding Canton, MA A-15
Figure A-14 Eleanor Cabot Bradley Estate – Interior Canton, MA A-16
Figure A-15 Park City Museum Park City, UT A-18
Figure A-16 Park City Museum – Skier Subway Theater Exhibit Park City, UT A-19
Figure A-17 Park City Museum – Mega Mine and Days of Ore Exhibits Park City, UT A-19
Figure A-18 Museum of Durham History – Exterior Durham, NC A-22
Figure A-19 Museum of Durham History – Visitors to Museum Durham, NC A-22
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
ConsultEcon, Inc. was retained by the Town of Canton to evaluate the feasibility of and
prepare business and operating plans for the Paul Revere Heritage Site (PRHS). This report
evaluates the project’s potential market support, the proposed programming, and financial
analysis for the reuse and operation of existing buildings on PRHS as a museum and
community art center and a destination restaurant. It also lays out options for governance
and management structures and their implications for the operations of the Town, the
proposed museum and community art center, and restaurant on the PRHS.
Location and Context
The PRHS is in Canton, Massachusetts a suburb of Boston located in Norfolk County, about 20
miles south of Boston and 30 miles north of Providence, Rhode Island. Canton’s location is
characterized in part by is highway accessibility as well as its being served by two train
stations on the MBTA commuter rail’s Providence/Stoughton Line. PRHS is a segment of a
larger project called the Plymouth Rubber Redevelopment. The Plymouth Rubber
Redevelopment will include both new-build structures and existing structures that can be
leveraged for the interpretation of the site’s history. The historic structures and public open
space will make up the PRHS portion of the project. The site’s accessibility and unique
existing structures are favorable for the proposed historic interpretation and programming.
Project Concept for PRHS Building Use
The PRHS will be a heritage attraction, appealing to area residents as well as visitors to
Canton, encompassing new public open space, a Town Green for large scale community
events, an event lawn for smaller outdoor gatherings, and recreational and interpretive
walking trails. The two historic buildings would be a locus of community, cultural and
commercial activity onsite. The two uses of the onsite buildings are assumed to include a
history themed destination restaurant in the Barn and a heritage museum and cultural center
in the Rolling Mill. There is a total of 19,300 gross square feet of building area in the two
buildings, and approximately 13,000 square feet of net leasable space. The most available
space is in the Rolling Mill with over 8,200 net leasable space. The Barn contains 4,800 net
leasable space. The courtyards adjacent to the buildings are assumed to be designed and
operated to be advantageous to the both the museum and cultural center and the restaurant
for cultural, community and private events, onsite catering, and seasonal alfresco dining.
Market Context
The potential usage patterns for PRHS will depend on several market factors, including
Resident Market population and demographics, tourist market behaviors, regional attractions,
and other area facility needs.
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Resident Markets
The Resident Market Area for PRHS has been defined in terms of drive time rings from the
project’s site in Canton. These rings include the area within a 10-minute drive of the site, the
area between a 10- and 20-minute drive from the site, and the area between a 20- and 30-
minute drive from the site. This area within a 30-minute drive has a current population of
about 1.0 million that is growing at a rate similar to that of the Commonwealth as a whole.
The population is also on the older side, with a declining but still substantial population of
school-aged children. The area profile suggests that there are many families in the area, and
this area has a substantial portion of affluent households.
Tourist Markets
In 2014, Massachusetts welcomed 25.0 million domestic visitors, 2.5 million overseas visitors,
and 735,000 visitors from Canada. Norfolk County, where Canton is located, was the location
of $1.1 billion in tourism spending in 2014, which represented 6.2 percent of tourism
spending in the state. It is estimated that if spending is proportional to the number of visitors,
there were approximately 1.76 million visitors to Norfolk County in 2014. Some of the
tourists to the area, though, may be associated with business travel of some of the major
corporations with offices in Canton and nearby municipalities, including MEDITECH,
Computershare, and Dunkin’ Brands. Overall, large numbers of tourists to the area represent
a market opportunity; however, because Canton is located outside the core urban tourist
zone, it may be challenged in marketing to the main tourist segments in a very competitive
tourism environment. The key segments of potential visitors to PRHS would be overnight
leisure visitors to the region, especially those staying in hotels nearby, visitors staying with
friends and relatives in the area, and visitors on organized tours.
Local Attractions and Regional Heritage
There are myriad historical attractions in the greater Boston area, including several in Canton
and neighboring towns. Because Paul Revere is a widely-known historic figure, this site may
be included in the itineraries of some regional visitors. Unique programming and distinctive
interpretation would be necessary to warrant visits by most heritage tourists who are focused
on other areas. Paul Revere sites in Boston are mostly associated with the Freedom Trail and
the Boston National Historical Park, including several attractions that are free to visit, such as
the Granary Burying Ground. The Paul Revere House, a late-17th century house in the North
End, is the oldest remaining structure in downtown Boston and the Freedom Trail’s only
private residence, achieving about 300,000 visitors annually. The ticket price to the historic
house museum is $5.00 and includes admission to the new Lathrop Place, which includes
exhibits about Paul Revere’s “Midnight Ride” and early industrial history. Other historic sites
from the early 19th century around the Boston Area are managed by individual organizations,
such as local historical societies, the National Park Service, Historic New England, and the
Trustees of Reservations. Admission to these museums and attractions ranges in price from
free to $10.00. Most of these organizations serve a highly local audience and achieve only
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ConsultEcon, Inc. Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017 modest attendance annually, supplementing historical programming and interpretation with outdoor recreational activities and access to wooded hiking trails. Alternative Commercial Use of PRHS Buildings In general, if the PRHS buildings were to be reused as 100 percent commercial space, for either office or restaurant use or some combination thereof, it would generate market rate rents for commercial space in the area. Restaurant and retail space in Canton Center typically achieves rents of between $20 and $25 per square foot and is well occupied. Area shopping centers can achieve over $30 per SF. Office space achieves similar rent levels as retail and restaurant, although there is more affordable spaces available in Class B and C office and commercial buildings. Assuming the PRHS buildings were to achieve an average of $20 rent per square foot of net leasable space, the total project would be expected to bring in $261,000 on an annual basis at 100 percent building occupancy. (It is assumed in this illustrative example that the commercial tenants would pay all the building’s operations and maintenance costs under a “triple net” or NNN lease. Actual occupancy may be lower than 100 percent. Including an allowance for 5 percent vacancy yields $247,950 in commercial rent annually.) Visitation Potential The visitation potential of the proposed museum and cultural center at PRHS establishes the design, programming and operating parameters for the next phase of planning and development. The visitation potential analysis assumes that the museum and cultural center at PRHS will be aggressively marketed, competently operated, and will receive full community support in the public and private sectors. The stabilized annual visitation potential range for the project is estimated at 15,000 to 34,000, with a mid-range estimate rounded to 25,000 in a stable year of operation. Due to opening period excitement about a new visitor attraction, there will likely be a strong surge in visitation during the opening years, up to 15 percent or more. Visitation patterns at the site will be seasonal with peak visitation during summer months and following the school calendar. Under the mid-range visitation potential estimate, approximately 68 percent of visitation is estimated to be from the resident market and 32 percent from tourist market visitation. Residents, school and other tour groups will be an important audience in the non-peak periods and during shoulder seasons. Moreover, building resident market visitation, membership and volunteer activities will support visitation from visiting friends and relatives, who comprise a large proportion of the tourist market and are heavily influenced by resident recommendations of places to go. Earned Revenue Potential The stable year earned revenue potential for the PRHS museum and cultural center is estimated at $394,000, under a mid-range visitation scenario and in 2017 dollars. Earned revenue is based on PRHS visitation potential, ticket pricing, retail, memberships and other revenue assumptions, including rental income from the restaurant, which assumed to be passed through the Town to the non-profit tenant in this operations analysis. The initial years of operation will benefit from higher visitation levels than is expected in the stable year. The Paul Revere Heritage Site 3
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ConsultEcon, Inc. Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017 actual dollar amounts for Year 1 and subsequent years will depend on future rates of inflation, project performance, and the number of years the project takes to develop before opening. Staffing and Operating Expenses The staffing plan to operate PRHS includes 6.2 full time equivalent (FTE) positions. It is assumed that full and part time staff positions will be supplemented by hourly workers and volunteers who will have duties associated with education, collections care, special events, visitor services and other important functions. Personnel direct salary and fringe benefit costs are approximately 66 percent of total operating expenses, which is within the norms of the cultural industry. Estimated operating expenses are $670,000 in a stable year of operations in current dollar value, under a mid-range visitation scenario. The expense factors used in this analysis conform to cultural industry norms for facilities of this size and scale. As design, program, leasing and business plans advance, operating expense estimates and factor assumptions will need to be re-evaluated and updated accordingly. Non-Earned Revenue and the Need for Annual Public and Private Contributions PRHS has good capacity to generate earned revenue from a variety of sources, including admissions, retail, and facility rentals. At the same time, operating a complex and labor- intensive operation such as the PRHS museum and cultural center requires considerable operating expenses. As is typical of projects of this type, it is anticipated that the museum and cultural center will require substantial on-going annual non-earned or contributed revenue support for operations. Based on the earned revenue potential and operating expense estimates for the project, this analysis indicates the museum and cultural center will require $276,000 on an annual basis to sustain operations as earned revenues represent 59 percent of total needed revenues to support operations in a stable year. This ratio is also within museum industry norms. Contributed revenues should be targeted at levels higher than contained herein, as these will allow more robust levels of service provision, will create revenues to cover any shortfalls in earned revenue that may occur in certain time periods, and could contribute to increasing the financial reserves and endowment. With the efforts of a well-established board of directors and advisors, an active development and fundraising program, this should be an attainable goal. Establishing an endowment before project opening will contribute to the long-term sustainability of the project. Pre-Opening Operations This report evaluates the operating potential of the museum and cultural center at PRHS after project opening. In addition to funds for construction and development, the project’s museum operations will need to be ramped up over a period before occupancy. Before opening there will be operating costs such as program development, staff training, fundraising, marketing, Paul Revere Heritage Site 4
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cleaning, etc. The amount of these costs will depend on when various personnel are hired
and how the pre-opening period is organized and implemented. These operations are
typically capitalized as a part of the overall development plan. Detailed pre-opening costs
are not included in this analysis which focuses on ongoing operations of the museum and
cultural center at PRHS after project opening.
Recommendations and Next Steps
Based on the findings of the feasibility, governance and operations analyses, the following are
recommendations and next steps for the Town, its partners, and other project stakeholders to
pursue.
♦ Town Governance and Operations – It is recommended that the Town of Canton
explore more thoroughly the option to operate the museum and visitor center
components of the project through existing Town operations in Parks and
Recreation. If the Town is to operate PRHS through it Parks and Recreation
Department, operating the museum too will create further operating efficiencies for
the Town and streamline the visitor experience in both the museum and cultural
center and throughout the site. Many municipalities across country, in the
Commonwealth and in the Boston region operate historic sites and museums
through their parks and recreation departments. Museums and community art
centers provide important recreational and cultural services to support artistic
expression and promote community quality of life that make communities
distinctive. The Town should consider carefully its financial participation in a) the
Barn and Rolling Mill “tenant” costs to complete interior construction and exhibits
and b) support of the proposed museum and cultural center operations on an
annual basis. The financial feasibility analysis already includes the assumption that
the Town offers the museum and community arts space for an annual rent of $1.
The Town could provide in addition, either through direct financial support or in-
kind services, the building occupancy costs. Removing some or all the estimated
$76,000 in occupancy costs for the museum and cultural center can potentially fill
some of the $276,000 annual non-earned revenue requirement for breakeven
museum and cultural center operations in a mid-range visitation scenario.
♦ Private Operating Partner - The Museum and Cultural Center is recommended to
be operated in cooperation with a private partner in collections, interpretation and
exhibits, the Canton Historical Society. Often municipally operated museums are
supported by a private, non-profit, a “friends of the museum” group. “Friends”
groups typically raise funds and coordinates volunteers and sometimes delivers
educational programs and special events. Existing and other community groups
have the potential to fill a supportive roll.
♦ Other Partners and Advisors – The Town needs to build relationships with private
project partners to generate sufficient funds for implementation of a sustainable
museum and cultural center. In addition to the operating partner, other potential
promotional and programming partners and advisors could include the Paul Revere
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House, the Massachusetts Historical Society, the National Park Service, Greater
Boston Convention and Visitors Bureau, the Trustees of the Reservations, and
Museum of Bird Art at Mass Audubon in Canton, MA, among others that have yet to
be determined. Defining further the community arts space and how that would be
configured and operated will impact its ability to be used by Town Parks and
Recreation and its partners.
♦ Develop Design Plan, Cost Estimates and Update Operating Plan for Public
Components – The Town is recommended to advance integrated planning and
design for the public site components. An integrated design team of site, building,
interpretive planners, and exhibition designers need to be engaged to develop
schematic plans, cost estimates, and construction documentation of the full project.
This may include multi-media production companies and other specialized sub-
consultants for creating the optimal visitor experience plan. As design plans change,
the operating plan for the public components of the project must be updated to
reflect physical changes and updated governance, management and operating
assumptions based on public-private partnership between the Town and the private
partners. Ideally, the Town would establish a relationship with a non-profit partner
to help complete the fit out of the museum and cultural center. There are
advantages to the Town identifying a private partner to complete the fit out of the
proposed museum and cultural center. A non-profit partner will have access to
different sources of capital and operating funds than the Town. With public and
private partners the museum and cultural center will have access to the widest
array of capital and operations funding sources than either would have on their
own. In the cultural industry, capital sources are typically easier to obtain than
operating funds from government and philanthropic sources. Contributed funds for
operations are most often directed towards cultural programs and events rather
than general operating support for administrative or occupancy costs. Therefore,
the museum and cultural center will need to tailor its development and fundraising
activities towards finding donors that will provide direct financial support of
programs after project opening and for long-term operations.
♦ Commercial Components – The proposed restaurant onsite will be available for
rent to generate revenue for the site and museum operations run by the Town. The
Town needs to identify the tenants that will complete the design and interior
construction and operate the proposed restaurant. It is not recommended that the
Town complete the interior construction of the restaurant without operators in
place. These commercial operations will be negotiated by the Town with a
leaseholder that will generate additional private investment in tenant
improvements to support sustainable operation and the community’s goals for
historic preservation and themed historical experience to develop within a well-
designed, constructed and operated restaurant. The restaurant would also be
encouraged to offer catering for events at PRHS public buildings and open spaces.
Developing a lease marketing strategy, plan and request for proposals (RFP) for the
project are important next steps for the Town to take towards recruiting a
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commercial operator. For the restaurant, the Town should establish a roster of
restaurant operators that may have the capacity to invest in a restaurant at the
PRHS as well as understand the Town’s vision for the site. The Neponset Valley
Chamber of Commerce and real estate brokers in the region are important
promotional partners that may generate new business leads for restaurant location
at PRHS. An RFP should be prepared to secure a tenant for the restaurant that will
complete the fit out of the restaurant space and operate it. The proposals should
include both design plans and financial plans for the restaurant.
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Section I
INTRODUCTION AND ASSUMPTIONS
ConsultEcon, Inc. was retained by the Town of Canton to evaluate the feasibility and prepare
business and operating plans for the Paul Revere Heritage Site (PRHS) in Canton,
Massachusetts. This report evaluates the project’s market support, the proposed
programming, and financial analysis for the reuse and operation of existing buildings at PRHS
as a museum and cultural center and a destination restaurant.
Report Assumptions
In preparing this report, the following assumptions were made. This study is qualified in its
entirety by these assumptions.
1. The size and design of the Paul Revere Heritage Site development will be
appropriate to its market potential, and will serve the community as a high-quality,
stimulating educational attraction with broad-based audience appeal and a
distinctive image. The proposed project will be a unique education and recreational
resource for the area.
2. The Paul Revere Heritage Site under the Master Plan will be competently and
effectively managed to provide outstanding guest experiences. Programming and
admission prices will be consistent with the entertainment and educational value
offered, and with other comparable institutions in the area.
3. There will be no physical constraints to impede visitors to the facility, such as major
construction activity. Changes in economic and social conditions due to events
including, but not limited to, major recessions, major environmental problems or
disasters that would negatively affect operations and visitation may impact on the
results of the findings in this study, including visitor projections.
4. Every reasonable effort has been made in order that the data contained in this study
reflect the most accurate and timely information possible, and it is believed to be
reliable. This study is based on estimates, assumptions and other information
developed by ConsultEcon, Inc. from its independent research efforts, general
knowledge of the industry, and consultations with the client. No responsibility is
assumed for inaccuracies in reporting by the client, its agents and representatives,
or any other data source used in the preparation of this study. No warranty or
representation is made that any of the projected values or results contained in this
study will actually be achieved. There will usually be differences between
forecasted or projected results and actual results because events and circumstances
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Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017
usually do not occur as expected. Other factors not considered in the study may
influence actual results.
5. Possession of this report does not carry with it the right of publication. This report
will be presented to third parties in its entirety and no abstracting of the report will
be made without first obtaining permission of ConsultEcon, Inc., which consent will
not be unreasonably withheld. This report may not be used for any purpose other
than that for which it was prepared.
6. Outputs of computer models used in this report are rounded. These outputs may
therefore slightly affect totals and summaries. All amounts are expressed in current
2017 value of the dollar.
7. This report was prepared based on a study period from November 2016 through
February 2017. It represents data available at that time.
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Section II
PAUL REVERE HERITAGE LOCATION CONTEXT AND PROJECT OVERVIEW
This section summarizes the location context of the Paul Revere Heritage Site (PRHS) in
Canton, Massachusetts.
Regional Context
Canton is a suburb of Boston located in Norfolk County, about 20 miles south of Boston and 30
miles north of Providence, Rhode Island. Figure II-1 is a map showing the location of the site
in its regional context.
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Figure II-1
Paul Revere Heritage Site - Regional Context
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Paul Revere Heritage Site
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Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017
Figure II-1
Paul Revere Heritage Site – Regional Context
Source: Google Maps; ConsultEcon, Inc.
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Local Context
Canton is bordered by the towns of Dedham, Milton, Norwood, Randolph, Sharon, Stoughton,
Westwood and the Hyde Park neighborhood of the City of Boston. Figure II-2 is a map
showing Canton and the site in relation to its surrounding towns.
Figure II-2
Town of Canton and Surrounding Towns
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Source: ESRI; ConsultEcon, Inc.
Paul Revere Heritage Site
II-3
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ConsultEcon, Inc.
Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017
Local Context
Canton is bordered by the towns of Dedham, Milton, Norwood, Randolph, Sharon, Stoughton,
Westwood and the Hyde Park neighborhood of the City of Boston. Figure II-2 is a map
showing Canton and the site in relation to its surrounding towns.
Figure II-2
Town of Canton and Surrounding Towns
Source: ESRI; ConsultEcon, Inc.
Paul Revere Heritage Site II-3Source page 20
ConsultEcon, Inc.
Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017
Highway Context
Canton’s location is characterized in part by its excellent highway accessibility. Within the
boundaries of the Town of Canton are portions of US Highway 1, Interstate 93, Interstate 95,
Massachusetts Route 24, and Massachusetts Route 128. Importantly, this includes the
interchange between Interstates 93 and 95, US Highway 1, and Massachusetts Route 128.
Figure II-3 is a map showing the borders of the Town of Canton, as well as the highways
passing through the town’s borders. Through Town, Route 138 and Washington Street are
primary arterial streets.
Figure II-3
Town of Canton Regional Highway Context
Milton 4°)
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425]
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3]
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ig L95 Randolph
Canton
£95] “4 S Avon
Sharon Stoughton
Source: Google Maps; ConsultEcon, Inc.
Paul Revere Heritage Site Il-4
[Original embedded text, retained for comparison]
ConsultEcon, Inc.
Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017
Highway Context
Canton’s location is characterized in part by its excellent highway accessibility. Within the
boundaries of the Town of Canton are portions of US Highway 1, Interstate 93, Interstate 95,
Massachusetts Route 24, and Massachusetts Route 128. Importantly, this includes the
interchange between Interstates 93 and 95, US Highway 1, and Massachusetts Route 128.
Figure II-3 is a map showing the borders of the Town of Canton, as well as the highways
passing through the town’s borders. Through Town, Route 138 and Washington Street are
primary arterial streets.
Figure II-3
Town of Canton Regional Highway Context
Source: Google Maps; ConsultEcon, Inc.
Paul Revere Heritage Site II-4Source page 21
ConsultEcon, Inc. Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017 Public Transit In addition to being regionally accessible by highway, Canton is served by two train stations on the MBTA commuter rail’s Providence/Stoughton Line. These stations are Canton Junction and Canton Center. Trains departing from Boston’s South Station split at Canton Junction to reach either Providence or Stoughton. Trains run throughout the day, seven days per week. There are typically about 20 trains per day to Providence and 15 per day to Stoughton. During morning and evening rush hours, the frequency of service is 3-4 trains per hour through Canton Junction, with two going to each Providence and Stoughton. During non-peak periods, on weekends and middays midweek, the frequency of service is lower than during peak periods at about one train per hour to each Providence and Stoughton. Given the route of the train, the site would be accessible to visitors originating from both Boston and Providence. The Canton Center Station has 215 parking spaces, while the Canton Junction Station has 764 parking spaces. Both lots offer parking at a rate of $4.00. Figure II-4 shows a map of PRHS in relation to the MBTA Stations and the context of Canton Center. Paul Revere Heritage Site II-5
Source page 22
ConsultEcon, Inc.
Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017
Figure II-4
Paul Revere Heritage Site – Town of Canton Suburban Context
Source: Google Maps; ConsultEcon, Inc.
Nearby Context
PRHS is proximate to Canton’s historic downtown center, which contains a mix of civic and
commercial uses. It is contained within the redevelopment of the Plymouth Rubber factory.
Figure II-5 is a satellite view of Canton Center and an outline of the Plymouth Rubber Factory
property. PRHS is approximately 40 acres with 9 to 10 acres of public spaces and
conveniently located near downtown businesses, visitor services, public amenities and Town
facilities, such as Town Hall and the Canton Public Library.
Paul Revere Heritage Site II-6Source page 23
ConsultEcon, Inc.
Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017
Figure II-5
Satellite View of Plymouth Rubber Site, Location of PRHS and Canton Center
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Source: Google Maps 2016; ConsultEcon, Inc.
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Paul Revere Heritage Site II-7
[Original embedded text, retained for comparison]
ConsultEcon, Inc.
Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017
Figure II-5
Satellite View of Plymouth Rubber Site, Location of PRHS and Canton Center
Note: Yellow outline shows approximate boundaries of Plymouth Rubber property.
Source: Google Maps 2016; ConsultEcon, Inc.
Paul Revere Heritage Site II-7Source page 24
ConsultEcon, Inc.
Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017
Plymouth Rubber Redevelopment Site Plans
PRHS is a segment of a larger project called the Plymouth Rubber Redevelopment. The
Plymouth Rubber Redevelopment will encompass PRHS, with adaptive use of two historic
buildings onsite and new residential construction, including 272 new housing units. The
distribution of the housing units by type of unit is shown by data in Table II-1. It should be
noted that this is the maximum bedroom count and the actual bedroom counts may vary
based on the site plans and market conditions.
Table II-1
Proposed Housing Profile - Maximum Bedroom Count
Plymouth Rubber Redevelopment
Units
For Sale Flat Garden Style Units
One Bedroom 34
Two Bedroom 152
Total 186
Age Restricted Apartments
One Bedroom 6
Two Bedroom 54
Total 60
Town Houses
Two Bedroom 16
Three Bedroom 10
Total 26
Grand Total 272
Source: Canton Holdings, LLC and Town of
Canton, MA.
Site and Building Plans
The historic buildings—the rolling mill and the barn—will be leveraged for the interpretation
of the site’s history as part of PRHS. These historic structures and related open space will be
owned by the Town of Canton and comprise the PRHS portion of the Plymouth Rubber
Paul Revere Heritage Site II-8Source page 25
ConsultEcon, Inc.
Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017
Redevelopment. Figure II-6 is the proposed Plymouth Rubber Redevelopment site plan from
the development agreement.
Figure II-6
Site Plan for the Plymouth Rubber Property
Source: VHB.
PRHS Site Plan
Figure II-7 is the PRHS site plan that is currently under construction.
Paul Revere Heritage Site II-9Source page 26
ConsultEcon, Inc.
Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017
Figure II-7
Site Plan for PRHS
STORIC LOCATION OF REVERE HOUSE
ISTORIC LOCATION OF REVERE BARN
[Ei revere BARN RELOCATED 2016
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5. OPEN SPACE
[Bll town Green
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8. CONSERVATION SEED MIX
[Bi historic WATERWAY LOCATION /
BIOSWALE
(0) wack
[HB courrvarp
REFLECTING THE CANTON RIVER
Seale 19 20"
cee REVERE HERITAGE SITE
Source: Jones Leblanc Landscape Architects.
Building Plans
The developer of the Plymouth Rubber site will be delivering to the Town complete buildings,
with mechanical HVAC installed, utilities hooked up and plumbed with bathrooms, elevators
and stairways. Figure II-8 through Figure I-10 show proposed building plans for the
existing barn. Figure I-11 and II-12 are building plans for the rolling mill. It is anticipated
that the Town will work with the future tenants to complete fit out and furnishing of
buildings.
Paul Revere Heritage Site II-10
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ConsultEcon, Inc.
Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017
Figure II-7
Site Plan for PRHS
Source: Jones Leblanc Landscape Architects.
Building Plans
The developer of the Plymouth Rubber site will be delivering to the Town complete buildings,
with mechanical HVAC installed, utilities hooked up and plumbed with bathrooms, elevators
and stairways. Figure II-8 through Figure II-10 show proposed building plans for the
existing barn. Figure II-11 and II-12 are building plans for the rolling mill. It is anticipated
that the Town will work with the future tenants to complete fit out and furnishing of
buildings.
Paul Revere Heritage Site II-10Source page 27
ConsultEcon, Inc.
Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017
Figure II-8
First Floor Plan for the Barn at the Plymouth Rubber Development Property
(aka Paul Revere Heritage Site)
Source: VHB.
Paul Revere Heritage Site II-11Source page 28
ConsultEcon, Inc.
Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017
Figure II-9
Second Floor Plan for the Barn at the Plymouth Rubber Development Property
(aka Paul Revere Heritage Site)
+
3500 LB
BARN PROPOSED SECOND FLOOR PLAN
EXHIBIT U DRAWING _ 2221 sF. Gross area
Source: VHB.
Paul Revere Heritage Site I-12
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ConsultEcon, Inc.
Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017
Figure II-9
Second Floor Plan for the Barn at the Plymouth Rubber Development Property
(aka Paul Revere Heritage Site)
Source: VHB.
Paul Revere Heritage Site II-12Source page 29
ConsultEcon, Inc.
Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017
Figure II-10
Basement Floor Plan for the Barn at the Plymouth Rubber Development Property
(aka Paul Revere Heritage Site)
NEW FOUNDATION WALLS AND CONCRETE SLAB
O O O
Oo
NEW FOUNDATION AND SLAB
gO
I 3500 LB ELEV. EQUIP MECH'L
|
O O / Oo
uP
BARN PROPOSED BASEMENT FLOOR PLAN
EXHIBIT U DRAWING __218755.cR08s area
Source: VHB.
Paul Revere Heritage Site II-13
[Original embedded text, retained for comparison]
ConsultEcon, Inc.
Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017
Figure II-10
Basement Floor Plan for the Barn at the Plymouth Rubber Development Property
(aka Paul Revere Heritage Site)
Source: VHB.
Paul Revere Heritage Site II-13Source page 30
ConsultEcon, Inc.
Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017
Figure II-11
First Floor Plan for the Rolling Mill at the Plymouth Rubber Development Property
(aka Paul Revere Heritage Site)
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L PLAN- CANTON SCHOOL DISTRICT OFFICES
FT, (eXTER|OR PERPAETER
ENTRY L
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EXHIBIT V DRAWING
Source: VHB.
Paul Revere Heritage Site I-14
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ConsultEcon, Inc.
Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017
Figure II-11
First Floor Plan for the Rolling Mill at the Plymouth Rubber Development Property
(aka Paul Revere Heritage Site)
Source: VHB.
Paul Revere Heritage Site II-14Source page 31
ConsultEcon, Inc.
Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017
Figure II-12
Second Floor Plan for the Rolling Mill at the Plymouth Rubber Development Property
(aka Paul Revere Heritage Site)
Source: VHB.
Paul Revere Heritage Site II-15Source page 32
ConsultEcon, Inc. Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017 PRHS Concept PRHS, as proposed, will be a heritage attraction, appealing to area residents as well as visitors to Canton, encompassing new public open space, a Town Green for large scale community events and an event lawn for smaller outdoor gatherings, recreational and interpretive walking trails. The two buildings onsite would be a locus of community, cultural and commercial activity onsite. For the purposes of this analysis, the two uses of the buildings onsite are assumed to include a destination restaurant in the Barn and a museum and cultural center in the Rolling Mill. Data in Table II-2 show the amount of gross building area and net leasable space in the buildings. Net leasable area includes reductions to gross area for wall widths, vertical circulation, entry foyers and restrooms on building plans for the Rolling Mill and the Barn. The percentage of gross floor area that is assumed to be leasable, based on ConsultEcon measurements of the building plans. The courtyards adjacent to the buildings are assumed to be designed and operated to be advantageous to the both the museum and cultural center and the restaurant for cultural, community and private events, onsite catering, and seasonal alfresco dining. Paul Revere Heritage Site II-16
Source page 33
ConsultEcon, Inc.
Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017
Table II-2
Illustrative Pre-Design Program of Spaces for the Barn and the Rolling Mill
Paul Revere Heritage Site
Subject to Further Refinement - For Illustrative Purposes Only
Area in Square Feet
Estimated Estimated
Gross % Net Net
1/ 2/
Program Spaces Area Leasable Leasable
Rolling Mill (Museum and Cultural Center)
First Floor 6,347 84.8% 5,383
Second Floor 6,347 45.1% 2,862
Total 12,694 65.0% 8,245
Barn (Restaurant)
First Level 2,197 68.8% 1,511
Second Level 2,221 68.7% 1,526
Third Level 2,221 79.2% 1,758
Total 6,639 72.2% 4,796
Grand Total 19,333 67.5% 13,041
in 2 buildings
Low Range High Range
Distribution of Parking
Restaurant Spaces 33 50
Museum Spaces 27 31
Total Parking Spaces 60 81
1/
Gross area is measured to the perimeter of the exterior walls.
2/
The percentage of gross floor area that is assumed to be leasable, based on
ConusultEcon measurements of the building plans. Net leasable area includes
reductions to gross area for wall widths, vertical circulation, entry foyers and
restrooms on building plans for the Rolling Mill and the Barn.
Source: Exhibits U and V of Plymouth Rubber Site Development Agreement;
ConsultEcon, Inc.
Paul Revere Heritage Site II-17Source page 34
ConsultEcon, Inc. Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017 Location Context and Project Overview Summary PRHS is located in Canton, a suburb of Boston in Norfolk County, about 20 miles south of Boston and 30 miles north of Providence, Rhode Island. Canton’s location is characterized in part by is highway accessibility as well as its being served by two train stations on the MBTA commuter rail’s Providence/Stoughton Line. PRHS is a segment of a larger project called the Plymouth Rubber Redevelopment. The Plymouth Rubber Redevelopment will include both new-build structures and existing structures that can be leveraged for the interpretation of the historical significance of the site. The historic structures and public open space will make up the PRHS portion of the project. The accessibility and unique existing structures make the location are favorable with regard to potential historic interpretation and programming. Paul Revere Heritage Site II-18
Source page 35
ConsultEcon, Inc.
Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017
Section III
MARKET CONTEXT
The following section summarizes the market context for the Paul Revere Heritage Site
(PRHS). The market segments include both residents of the area and visitors to Canton or
other towns south of Boston. This section also includes an overview of relevant regional and
comparable attractions that may inform the competitive context for the proposed interpretive
elements at PRHS.
Resident Market
The Resident Market Area for PRHS has been defined in terms of drive time rings from the
project’s site in Canton. These rings include the area within a 10-minute drive of the site, the
area between a 10- and 20-minute drive from the site, and the area between a 20- and 30-
minute drive from the site. This area has been compared to the populations of Canton,
Norfolk County, the Boston Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), the Boston Designated
Market Area (DMA), the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, and the United States as a whole.
Figure III-1 is a map showing the extent of the Resident Market Area.
Paul Revere Heritage Site III-1Source page 36
ConsultEcon, Inc.
Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017
Figure III-1
Map of Resident Market Area – 10-, 20-, and 30-Minute Drive Times
Paul Revere Heritage Site
Source: ESRI; ConsultEcon, Inc.
Paul Revere Heritage Site III-2Source page 37
ConsultEcon, Inc.
Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017
Population
Data in Table III-1 show the population trend for the Resident Market Area for the years
2010, 2016 and 2021. The data show that the population of Canton and the area around
PRHS is growing at a rate similar to that of the Commonwealth as a whole.
Table III-1
Population Trend in Resident Market Area – 2010, 2016, 2021
Paul Revere Heritage Site
% Change % Change
2010 2016 2021 2010-2016 2016-2021
0-10 Minute Drive 47,384 49,129 50,768 3.7% 3.3%
10-20 Minute Drive 224,800 233,083 240,820 3.7% 3.3%
20-30 Minute Drive 706,627 732,470 757,355 3.7% 3.4%
Total 0-30 Minute Drive 978,811 1,014,682 1,048,943 3.7% 3.4%
Town of Canton 21,561 22,774 23,788 5.6% 4.5%
Norfolk County 670,850 693,976 715,313 3.4% 3.1%
Boston MSA 4,552,402 4,739,348 4,929,486 4.1% 4.0%
Boston DMA 6,322,433 6,570,080 6,813,644 3.9% 3.7%
Commonwealth of
Massachusetts 6,547,629 6,780,933 7,009,033 3.6% 3.4%
United States 308,745,538 323,580,626 337,326,118 4.8% 4.2%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Census; ESRI Population Projections, 2016-2021; ConsultEcon, Inc.
Age Profile
Data in Table III-2 summarize the age profile for the Resident Market Area in the year 2016.
The data show that, with a median age of 43.4, the population of Canton is moderately older
than the population of the Commonwealth as a whole with a median age of 39.8.
Paul Revere Heritage Site III-3Source page 38
ConsultEcon, Inc.
Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017
Table III-2
Age Profile in Resident Market Area – 2016
Paul Revere Heritage Site
Median
Age 0-17 18-24 25-34 35-54 55-64 65+
0-10 Minute Drive NC 21.0% 7.7% 10.6% 27.2% 14.4% 19.1%
10-20 Minute Drive NC 21.9% 8.8% 11.0% 27.1% 14.1% 17.1%
20-30 Minute Drive NC 22.4% 8.9% 12.4% 27.5% 13.5% 15.3%
Total 0-30 Minute Drive NC 22.2% 8.8% 12.0% 27.4% 13.7% 15.9%
Town of Canton 43.4 21.7% 7.8% 10.4% 27.2% 14.2% 18.6%
Norfolk County 41.5 21.6% 8.5% 12.0% 27.5% 13.9% 16.5%
Boston MSA 39.2 20.9% 10.0% 13.9% 26.8% 13.2% 15.2%
Boston DMA 40.0 20.9% 9.8% 13.3% 26.8% 13.6% 15.7%
Commonwealth of Massachusetts 39.8 20.9% 10.1% 13.3% 26.5% 13.5% 15.9%
United States 38.0 22.9% 9.7% 13.6% 25.9% 12.8% 15.0%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Census; ESRI Population Projections, 2016-2021; ConsultEcon, Inc.
Data in Table III-3 summarize the population of school age children (ages 5 to 17) in the
Resident Market Area in 2016. The data show that there are an estimated 170,000 school age
children residing within a 30-minute drive of PRHS, a number that is projected to decline
nearly 4 percent by 2021 – but is still above the percentage of school age children for the
Commonwealth as a whole.
Paul Revere Heritage Site III-4Source page 39
ConsultEcon, Inc.
Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017
Table III-3
School Age Children in Resident Market Area – 2016
Paul Revere Heritage Site
% Change 2016-
2016 2021 2021
0-10 Minute Drive 7,831 7,478 -4.5%
10-20 Minute Drive 39,020 36,906 -5.4%
20-30 Minute Drive 122,815 118,957 -3.1%
Total 0-30 Minute Drive 169,666 163,341 -3.7%
Town of Canton 3,795 3,613 -4.8%
Norfolk County 114,378 108,366 -5.3%
Boston MSA 745,185 724,345 -2.8%
Boston DMA 1,031,776 1,003,579 -2.7%
Commonwealth of Massachusetts 1,062,945 1,032,877 -2.8%
United States 54,101,834 54,840,778 1.4%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Census; ESRI Population Projections, 2016-2021; ConsultEcon, Inc.
Household Profile
Data in Table III-4 summarize the household profile in the Resident Market Area in 2016.
The data show that there are a larger proportion of families in Canton and in close-in drive
time areas compared to in the Boston MSA and Commonwealth as a whole.
Paul Revere Heritage Site III-5Source page 40
ConsultEcon, Inc.
Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017
Table III-4
Household Profile in Resident Market Area – 2016
Paul Revere Heritage Site
Percent
Families to
Number of Number of Total Average
Households Families Households Household Size
0-10 Minute Drive 19,524 13,019 66.7% NC
10-20 Minute Drive 87,281 59,357 68.0% NC
20-30 Minute Drive 274,628 179,406 65.3% NC
Total 0-30 Minute Drive 381,433 251,782 66.0% NC
Town of Canton 8,772 5,969 68.0% 2.56
Norfolk County 264,977 172,856 65.2% 2.55
Boston MSA 1,825,779 1,137,380 62.3% 2.51
Boston DMA 2,546,954 1,663,189 65.3% 2.49
Commonwealth of Massachusetts 2,625,978 1,646,226 62.7% 2.49
United States 121,786,233 80,307,260 65.9% 2.59
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Census; ESRI Population Projections, 2016-2021; ConsultEcon, Inc.
Income Profile
Data in Table III-5 summarize the income profile in the Resident Market area in 2016. The
data show that, based on Median Household Income, Canton is more affluent than many other
areas of the Boston MSA and Commonwealth. Nearly 50 percent of Canton households earn
over $100,000 annually.
Paul Revere Heritage Site III-6