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Professional Services DSC Corporation, PC Memorandum Date March 25, 2013 To Canton Board of Selectmen From Thomas C. Houston Project Plymouth Rubber Rezoning Subject Site Planning, Affordable Housing, Traffic, and Mitigation At the request of Attorney Mark Bobrowski, Professional Services Corporation, PC (PSC) reviewed site planning, traffic, and impact mitigation issues related to a proposed Amendment to the Canton Zoning By-Laws that would create a new “overlay district.” The proposed Amendment would allow Canton Holdings, LLC to redevelop the Plymouth Rubber site for 348 units of townhouse and multifamily housing. PROJECT DESCRIPTION The site is owned by Canton Holdings, LLC, 1 East Oak Hill Drive, Suite 100, Westmont, IL 60559 (Canton Holdings). The main portion of the Project Site is located between Revere Street and the Neponset River. One parcel that will accommodate four townhouse units is located across the Neponset River and fronts on Neponset Street. The Proposed Project would involve demolition of the remaining industrial foundations and structures on the Plymouth Rubber site and construction of 348 new dwelling units consisting of 204 multifamily units 25 percent of which are Affordable Units (Buildings 1 through 6), 64 townhouse units (Buildings 1 through 15), and 80 age restricted multifamily units (Buildings 7 and 8). Four proposed townhouse units are located on the south side of the Neponset River. All other proposed housing units are located on the main portion of the Project Site between Revere Street and the Neponset River. The historic Revere Barn and Rolling Mill which are also located on the main portion of the Project Site would be rehabilitated and adapted for new use as community facilities and six additional residential units. Ten Lincoln Road Suite 201 Foxboro, MA 02035-1387 Tel. 508.543.4243 Fax 508.543.7711
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Pi Memorandum March 25, 2013 Page 2 A key component of adaptive reuse of the Plymouth Rubber site would be remediation of hazardous materials known to exist in specific locations on the site. In addition, Canton Holdings would assume responsibility for repair and maintenance of the Canton River flood control works, including the dam and diversion channel that were constructed by US Army Corps of Engineers. The Plymouth Rubber Redevelopment Project that would be authorized by the proposed zoning Amendment it is summarized as follows: 60 Townhouse Units, 4 Five Unit Buildings, 10 Four Unit Buildings 4 Townhouse Units, 1-Four Unit Building, on Neponset Street. 204 Multifamily Units including 25 percent affordable units (rents allowed for households with incomes not exceeding 80 percent of the “area median income” (AMD), 2-Forty Unit Buildings, 2-Thirty-Two Unit Buildings, and 2 Thirty Unit Buildings. 80 Age Restricted Units, 2 Forty Unit Buildings - Revere Barn Restoration - Rolling Mill Restoration 348 Total Units 26 Buildings Of the 64 townhouse units, there are 19 two-story two bedroom units with 2 driveway parking spaces and 2 driveway parking spaces. There are 31 two story two bedroom units with dens with 1 garage parking space and | driveway parking space. There are 14 one story two bedroom units with 2 garage parking spaces and 2 driveway parking spaces. There are 204 multifamily units proposed. There are 2 forty unit buildings with 4 residential floors and garage level parking beneath. There are 2 thirty-two unit buildings with three residential floors and garage level parking beneath. There are 2 thirty unit buildings with three residential floors and garage level parking beneath. The 80 age restricted units are located in 2 forty unit buildings. All parking is exterior at-grade parking. The Canton Holdings, LLC also owns a 2.4-acre parcel on the opposite side of Revere Street and identified as assessors Map 26, Lot 111 which served as the former Plymouth Rubber “parking lot.”. Ina separate project, that site will be developed in accordance with the General Residence District requirements of the Zoning By-Laws. A site plan for a 48 unit assisted-living facility was submitted for this site but has not been finalized because selection of a firm to operate the Assisted Living Project has
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P\( Memorandum March 25, 2013 Page 3 not been completed. Unlike the Plymouth Rubber main site, the “parking lot” is located within the General Residence Zoning District and does not require rezoning in order to develop the Assisted Living Project or other economically viable uses. In 2007, the current property owner proposed to redevelop the Plymouth Rubber site for 650 residential units plus 20,000 ft.? of commercial space. With respect to residential units, the current rezoning proposal for 348 residential units represents a 47% reduction in residential units versus the 2007 zoning proposal. BASIS OF REVIEW Our review is based upon the following 1. Review of the Project Manual for “Plymouth Rubber Redevelopment 104 Revere St., Canton, Massachusetts Prepared by Canton Holdings, LLC” and dated January 11, 2013. The contents include: Project Overview, Building and Site History, 2013 Building and Site Inventory, Site Information, 64 Townhouse Sales/Expense, 80 Age Restricted Sales/Expense, 204 Multifamily Rental Pro Forma, Rolling Mill Conversion, Financial Details, Engineering Studies, Proposed Site Plans, and Attachments (Traffic Impact and Access Study). Review of the "Conceptual Site Plans, Plymouth Rubber Redevelopment, Revere St., Canton, Massachusetts, Issued for Client Review" prepared by Vanasse Hangen Brustlin, Inc. (VHB) consisting of seven sheets. Sheets C-1 through C-6 are dated December 14, 2012 and Sheet C-7 is dated November 27, 2012. Review of the Conceptual Site Plan, Plymouth Rubber Redevelopment Revere St., Canton, MA prepared by Hawk Design, Inc., landscape architects, dated November 6, 2012 Review of the Traffic Impact and Access Study, Plymouth Rubber Redevelopment Canton, Massachusetts prepared by Vanasse Hangen Brustlin, Inc, dated January 2013. Review of conceptual architectural plans and elevations of proposed buildings prepared by JSA Architects, Portsmouth, NH. Review of “Canton, MA, Flow Monitoring Report, December 2012 — January 2013” prepared by Flow Assessment Services, LLC, dated January 8, 2013. A field reconnaissance of the Project Site A meeting on February 12, 2013 with Bernie Plante, Kenneth Staffier, and Patrick Duneford at the offices of Vanasse Hangen Brustlin, Inc.
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aie Memorandum March 25, 2013 Page 4 9. A meeting on February 27, 2013 in the Canton Town Hall Salah meeting room with Robert Burr, Chair, Canton Board of Selectmen, William T. Friel, Town Administrator, Edward Walsh, Building Commissioner, Paul Schneiders, Esq., Mark Bobrowski, Esq., Judy Barrett, Roberta Cameron, AICP, Michael Jacobs and Thomas Houston, PE. 10. Review of the Canton Zoning By-Laws as amended. 11. Review of the Zoning Map of the Town of Canton, Massachusetts as amended. 12. Review of the Rules and Regulations of the Canton Planning Board Governing the Subdivision of Land, revised November 10, 1998. SITE PLANNING SSS Ownership and Rental Units The Plymouth Rubber Redevelopment will include both rental and ownership units and they are broken down by building type. The proposed 204 multifamily units are all proposed to be rental units. The 64 townhouse units and the 80 age restricted units are all proposed to be ownership units. Layout The main portion of the Project Site includes three distinct areas. The northerly portion of the main Project Site.includes 2 forty unit buildings for age restricted housing with 132 at grade parking spaces. There is a single entrance driveway on Revere Street. The access drives for these residential buildings are not connected to the access drives for the remainder of the main portion of the Project Site. Once the banks of the Neponset River are cleaned, cleared, and landscaped and any necessary remediation to remove contaminants is complete the River will become a significant and valuable resource for the Project and for the Town as a whole. The building orientation is good with the buildings located between the parking field and the River provided unimpeded access to the rivers edge for future residents; however, the parking field is a preeminent site element. Final Site Plans that would follow adoption of the proposed Amendment of the Zoning By-Laws should be revised with respect to the parking field which tends to dominate the site. Efforts should be made through landscaping and layout to minimize the expanse of parking providing a better entrance experience for future residents The center portion of the main Project Site will include six multifamily residential buildings. Two of the buildings will contain 40 residential units; two of the buildings will contain 32 residential units and two of the buildings will contain 30 residential units. The 2 forty unit buildings will contain four residential
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Pi Memorandum March 25, 2013 Page 5 floors plus basement level parking. The 32 and 30 unit buildings will contain three residential floors plus basement level parking. A total of 208 garage parking spaces and 174 at-grade parking spaces will be provided for use by the multifamily dwellings. Buildings 1, 2, and 3 are aligned along the Revere Street frontage and the position of these buildings relates in a traditional manner to Revere Street. This serves to integrate these building and the Project into the surrounding neighborhood. However, these buildings tend to be dominated by paved vehicular facilities; with Revere Street in front of the buildings and surface parking lots behind the buildings. Final Site Plans that would follow adoption of the proposed Amendment of the Zoning By-Laws should be revised to provide more open space adjacent to these buildings thereby providing a more inviting residential environment for future residents. Upon cleanup of the Neponset River and provision of, walkways and landscaping along its banks the River will become a key site feature. Buildings 4, 5, and 6 do not relate well to the riverfront. Parking fields and access drives separate these buildings from the river’s edge providing a physical and visual deterrent for residents desiring to access the riverfront. Final Site Plans that would follow adoption of the proposed Amendment of the Zoning By-Laws should be revised to reorient buildings 4, 5, and 6 towards the river. The revised site plan would place the on-site access drives and the at grade parking lots to the east of the buildings to provide better physical and visual access to the riverfront. The southerly portion of the main Project Site includes 64 townhouse units including 3 five unit buildings and 11 four unit buildings. The layout of these buildings is attractive and well-designed. Many of these townhouse units are located along the banks of the Neponset River and provide unimpeded access to the river’s edge for future residents. The central portion of this townhouse area consists of an attractive open space area. The townhouse units have either 2 garage parking spaces plus 2 driveway parking spaces or 1 garage parking space and 1 driveway parking space. The Revere Barn and the Rolling Mill will be rehabilitated and adapted to serve as community buildings. A pubic open space will be constructed adjacent to these buildings. A parking lot with 21 at-grade parking spaces will be provided at these buildings for residents and visitors. The Revere Barn, the Rolling Mill, and the public open space are situated adjacent to the Mill Pond which provides an attractive setting for future residents. Four townhouse units will be located on a separate parcel on the South side of the Neponset River fronting on Neponset Street. The building relates in a traditional way to its frontage along the Neponset Street. The proposed building is generally compatible in scale and location with other buildings along
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Ps Memorandum March 25, 2013 Page 6 this segment of Neponset Street. However, rather than recognizing the Neponset River as a key site feature, the proposed site layout locates the access drive and garage entrances for the townhouse units between the building and the edge of the river. Final Site Plans that would follow adoption of the proposed Amendment of the Zoning By-Laws should be revised with respect to relocating the driveway and garage entrances to the front side of the building which will provide unimpeded visual and physical access to the river’s edge. We also recommend in increasing the proposed side yard setback to the existing residential properties to the south. Revere Barn The Revere Barn will be rehabilitated and reused as a community building. The Rolling Mill and the Revere Barn will be placed to frame an outdoor public space that will include a swimming pool and other amenities. This valuable public space will overlook the Mill Pond and its esplanade. However, in order to implement this design, relocation of the Revere Barn from its current location is required. We are concerned that the proposed relocation of the Revere Barn will degrade its significance by altering its original site context. Final Site Plans that would follow adoption of the proposed Amendment of the Zoning By-Laws should be revised to provide for rehabilitating and reusing the Revere Barn in its current location. Revere Street Building Entrances Multifamily buildings 1, 2, and 3 front on Revere Street and provide setbacks of approximately 20 feet from the Revere Street right-of-way. However a sidewalk paralleling Revere Street is located between the buildings and Revere Street, which is fully consistent with the compact residential scale of a traditional streetscape. Although we regard the close orientation of these buildings to Revere Street as a positive site design element, the buildings remain isolated from the street and focus their activity inward upon the site due to a lack of building entrances on Revere Street. The building entrances as currently proposed provide access to the on-site parking areas and cannot be easily accessed from Revere Street due to a significant change in grade and a lack of direct walkways. Final Site Plans that would follow adoption of the proposed Amendment of the Zoning By-Laws should be revised with respect to modifying the building design to provide entrances for Buildings 1, 2, and 3 that allow access directly from Revere Street. These Revere Street building entrances would be on the floor above the on-site building entrances.
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Pi Memorandum March 25, 2013 Page 7 Riverfront There is a 200 foot wide jurisdictional riverfront area extending from the bank of the Neponset River landward for a distance of 200 feet that is subject to regulation by the Canton Conservation Commission under the Massachusetts “Wetlands Protection Act (MGL Ch 131 §40).” As a “Redevelopment Site” the Conservation Commission may allow alteration of the riverfront particularly for those portions of the site that were previously altered by development. In general previously altered areas of the site extend nearly to the river’s edge. Maintenance required by the Corps of Engineers for its flood control works will require removal of trees from the banks of the river. Although this type of clear cutting would not normally be allowed the Conservation Commission may find that it can condition this work because it supports prevention of flooding, which is one of the defined interests of the “Wetlands Protection Act.” Although the site plan shows extensive alteration of the riverfront, this work may be conditioned by the Conservation Commission given the property’s status as a “Redevelopment Project.” Access, Circulation, and Parking In the northerly portion of the site, a single point of access is provided to the parking facilities serving the 80 age restricted housing units. Although only one driveway is provided concerns about restricted access for emergency vehicles are alleviated due to the close proximity of the parking facility to the edge of Revere Street. Good circulation is provided for all parking spaces given that all access drives that have outlets. On-site access drive geometry is sufficient to accommodate emergency vehicle and service vehicle access. No on-site sidewalks or walkways are proposed in this location nor are the age restricted units in Buildings 7 and 8 connected by walkways to the remainder of the Project Site. Final Site Plans that would follow adoption of the proposed Amendment of the Zoning By-Laws should be revised by extending the Revere Street sidewalk to serve the age restricted units. Opportunities for constructing an on-site walkway that provides a connection to the remainder of the Project Site should also be evaluated. A total of 132 at-grade parking spaces are proposed to serve the 80 age restricted units in Buildings 7 and 8, which provides a ratio of 1.65 parking spaces per unit During Final Design that would follow adoption of the proposed Amendment of the Zoning By-Laws, the adequacy of parking should be further evaluated and potentially the number of parking spaces could be increased to provide a ratio of 1.8 parking spaces per unit.
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pi Memorandum March 25, 2013 Page 8 Integrated access and circulation is provided for the 64, townhouse units and the 204 multifamily units in the central and southerly portions of the main Project Site. Three points of access are provided that include 2 driveways on Revere Street and 1 driveway connecting to an un-named private way that formally served as a truck entrance for the Plymouth rubber facility. Multiple points of access disperse trips generated by the proposed housing and the diminish impacts on Revere Street. Multiple access points also help to ensure that adequate access is maintained for emergency vehicles. On site circulation is good with only one driveway serving Buildings 4, 5, and 6 having no outlet. On-site access drive geometry is sufficient to accommodate emergency vehicle and service vehicle access. A sidewalks is provided on-site adjacent to the segment on Revere Street that extends along the frontage adjacent to Buildings 1, 2, and 3. In addition a well developed walkway system is provided that serves Buildings 1, 2, and 3. A sidewalk is provide just to the East of Buildings 4 and 5. Walkways are also provided in the common open space central to Buildings 10, 11, 12, 13, and 14. Final Site Plans that would follow adoption of the proposed Amendment of the Zoning By-Laws should be revised with respect to connecting the walkway east of Buildings 4 and 5 to the sidewalk in front of the parking at Buildings 4, 5, and 6. Walkways along the on-site access drives should be extended to connect with the walkways in the common open space central to Buildings 10, 11, 12, 13, and 14. A total of 106 at grade parking spaces and 102 garage parking spaces are proposed to serve the 100 multifamily housing units in Buildings 1, 2, and 3, which provides a ratio of 2.1 parking spaces per unit which is considered as sufficient. A total of 96 at grade parking spaces and 78 garage parking spaces are proposed to serve the 104 multifamily housing units in Buildings 4, 5, and 6, which provides a ratio of 1.67 parking spaces per unit. During Final Design that would follow adoption of the proposed Amendment of the Zoning By-Laws, the adequacy of parking should be further evaluated. Potentially the number of parking spaces could be increased for Buildings 4, 5, and 6 to provide a ratio of 1.8 parking spaces per unit. Of the 64 townhouse units, 33 townhouse units have two garage parking spaces and two driveway parking spaces or 4 parking spaces per unit. The remaining 31 townhouse units have 1 garage parking space and 1 driveway parking space or 2 parking spaces per unit. Additionally, 7 visitor parking spaces are provided for the townhouses and 7 additional visitor parking spaces are provided which are shared with Buildings 4, 5, and 6. The townhouse parking is considered sufficient. Stormwater Management The Conceptual Site Plans indicate the location of the stormwater collection system. However, no recharge facilities or detention basins are shown based on the premise that the site is “entirely impervious.” This premise does not reflect the fact that there are remaining open areas on the site
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Ps Memorandum March 25, 2013 Page 9 although relatively modest scale. Additionally, several of the on-site impervious surfaces are disconnected from the street drainage system and the Neponset River; the net result which is to limit runoff under existing conditions. An additional concern limiting the location of potential stormwater recharge facilities is the presence of contaminants which had been identified in specific locations. Given the industrial character of the site, there is the possibility that additional presently undetected contamination could exist. Based upon these considerations, Canton Holdings has elected not to show stormwater recharge or retention facilities on the site. The aforesaid not withstanding, we recommend including provisions for stormwater recharge. Final Site Plans that would follow adoption of the proposed Amendment of the Zoning By-Laws should be revised to include stormwater retention facilities. Although it remains difficult to precisely quantify runoff under existing conditions, we recommend establishing a target recharge rate for the site. Although the target recharge rate may not have a specific quantitative basis, it can be established based in part upon groundwater and soil permeability data in addition to specific locations of soil contamination. The specific target recharge rate can best be established during final design when additional soil and groundwater data and information on contamination is available. An interim recommendation would be to provide recharge facilities capable of recharging 1 inch of runoff from paved surfaces. During Final Design that would follow adoption of the proposed Amendment of the Zoning By-Laws specific locations for recharge facilities should be identified where down gradient portions of the site are free from any contaminants. Stormwater recharge facilities could take the form of shallow lawn depressions and other low impact design measures or of more conventional basins and subsurface recharge structures. Additionally, the site plans indicate connections from the on-site stormwater collection system to Town of Canton drainlines. These connections should only be permitted provided that there is adequate capacity in the Town drainlines and further provided that permission is obtained from the Canton Department of Public Works. During Final Design that would follow adoption of the proposed Amendment of the Zoning By-Laws, information should be submitted identifying the use to capacity ratio at all points of connection to the existing Town of Canton stormdrain system. Sanitary Sewer System The building sewer services for the age restricted units in Buildings 7 and 8 connect at a new on-site sewer manhole and a new sanitary sewer line extends south from this manhole to an existing sanitary sewer line south of Building 8.
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Pi Memorandum March 25, 2013 Page 10 Building sewer services for Buildings 1 and 2 connect to the existing Town of Canton sanitary sewer on Revere Street where new sanitary sewer manholes are provided. The building sewer service for Building 3 connects to the existing Town of Canton sanitary sewer on Revere Street with a Wye connection. The sanitary sewage from the remaining multifamily and townhouse units is collected by an on-site sanitary sewer system which will make a direct connection to an MWRA (formerly MDC) trunk line sewer on the project site. A report summarizing gauging of sanitary sewer flows in these lines was submitted. The report indicates increases in sewer baseline flows following storm events. This indicates that these sewerlines are impacted by infiltration and inflow (I & I). It would therefore be appropriate to consider requiring I & I removal as a condition of allowing sewer connections. For the Proposed Project, I & I removal could be implemented either by a cash contribution allowing I & I remediation projects to be conducted by Town forces or by work being performed by contractors engaged by Canton Holdings in cooperation with the Canton Department Of Public Works. During Final Design that would follow adoption of the proposed Amendment of the Zoning By-Laws, the use to capacity ratio should be provided for all Town of Canton and MWRA sanitary sewers at all points of connection. However, the sewage generated by the Proposed Project will be small in comparison to the capacity provided by these existing sanitary sewers. Water Distribution System Currently there is a 6 inch water distribution main in Revere Street. Available fire flow test data indicates adequate pressure. However the volume of flow is limited and is considered insufficient for fire protection purposes. Canton Holdings proposes to install a new 8 inch diameter cement lined ductile iron (CLDIP) water main extending from Washington Street to the driveway north of multifamily Building 3 in the central portion of the main site. An alternative is recommended in this memorandum under Project mitigation involves installation of a new 12 inch diameter CLDIP water main extending from Washington Street to Sherman Street. The water service for the 80 units, age restricted building's in the northerly portion of the site is shown as an 8 inch diameter CLDI waterline tapping the existing 6 inch diameter water line in Revere Street which is not standard practice. Final Site Plans that would follow adoption of the proposed Amendment of the Zoning By-Laws should indicate a three valve connection to the recommended new 12 inch diameter CLDIP water main in Revere Street. Additionally, a hydrant assembly should be placed at the end of the on-site water service near Building 8 to facilitate flushing. The proposed on-site water distribution system for the multifamily and townhouse buildings in the central and southerly portions of the site connects with tapping sleeves and valves at two points on Revere Street. The on-site water distribution system is looped with no dead end watermain segments.
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Pi Memorandum March 25, 2013 Page 11 Final Site Plans that would follow adoption of the proposed Amendment of the Zoning By-Laws should be revised to show additional hydrant locations. The Final Site Plans should indicate three valve connections at the two points of connection on the recommended new 12 inch diameter CLDIP water main in Revere Street. On-site gate valves should be indicated on each waterline at tees and crosses, Line valves should be indicated at intervals not to exceed 1,000 feet. General Site Design Elements The Conceptual Site Plans indicate the overall nature of the development that would be authorized by adoption of the proposed Amendment of the Zoning By-Laws. The Final Site Plans that would follow adoption of the proposed Amendment of the Zoning By-Laws should be revised to indicate the following: ¢ Dumpster locations or other provisions for trash and recycling including appropriate dumpster enclosures and screening. ¢ Common mailbox facilities with parking. e Site furnishings including benches and other amenities ® Playgrounds in the central and southern portions of the main site with separate facilities for each age group. Site lighting including parking lot lighting, pedestrian area and walkway lighting, and building lighting. Light fixtures should be incorporate dark skies principals and should preclude point sources of light that are visible from off-site locations. [lumination levels should be range from 4 to 5 foot-candles and should limit light trespass to % foot-candles at property lines. TRAFFIC eS General In general, we find that the “Traffic Impact Study and Access Study, Plymouth Rubber Redevelopment, Canton, Massachusetts” (Traffic Impact Study) prepared for Canton Holdings, LLC by Vanasse Hangen Brustlin, Inc. was prepared in accord with standard engineering practice and properly identifies and evaluates the overall traffic impacts of the Plymouth Rubber Redevelopment Project.
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Ps Memorandum March 25, 2013 Page 12 The Traffic Impact Study evaluates the impacts of the trips generated by the Plymouth Rubber Redevelopment Project that includes 348 residential units. The trips generated by the independent Assisted Living Project on the east side of Revere Street are included under the No-Build Case. Traffic Study Area The Traffic Study Area includes locations as follows: e The Chapman Street and Neponset Street Intersection — Signalized e Washington Street and Bolivar Street Intersection — Signalized e Washington Street and Revere Street Intersection — Signalized e Washington Street and Sherman Street Intersection — Signalized e Revere Street arid Age Restricted Drive Intersection — Unsignalized e Revere Street and North Site Drive Intersection — Unsignalized © Revere Street, South Site Drive, and Assisted Living Drive Intersection — Unsignalized e Revere Street and Lincoln Street Intersection — Unsignalized e Revere Street and North Assisted Living Drive Intersection — Unsignalized e Revere Street and Paul Revere Village Drive Intersection — Unsignalized © Revere Street, Sherman Street, and Beaumont Street Intersection — Unsignalized e Revere Street and Paul Revere Village Drive Intersection — Unsignalized e The Sherman, Beaumont Street, and Revere Street Intersection — Unsignalized e The Spaulding Street and Jackson Street Intersection — Unsignalized e The Chapman Street, Spaulding Street, and Everett Street Intersection — Unsignalized We consider the Traffic Study Area to be appropriate for identification and evaluation of traffic impacts of Plymouth Rubber Redevelopment Project.
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Pi Memorandum March 25, 2013 Page 13 Existing Traffic Volumes Existing traffic volumes were developed based upon manual turning movement counts taken in November 2012 from 7:00 AM to 9:00 AM and 4:00 PM to 7:00 PM. The Average Daily Traffic Volume on Neponset Street (east of Walpole Street) was 15,950 vehicles per day and on Revere Street (south of Sherman Street) was 2,170 vehicles per day. The traffic counting program complies with standard engineering practice. Crash History During the three year period from 2008 through 2010, the Washington Street and Sherman Street Intersection experienced 14 reported vehicle crashes while the other intersection in the Traffic Study Area experienced 9 or less vehicle crashes which is below the MassDOT District and statewide averages. The evaluation of crash data complies with standard engineering practice. No-Build Traffic Volumes The 2017 No-Build Traffic Volumes were developed by applying a %% annual growth rate over the five- year study horizon and adding the traffic volumes generated by Canton Holdings LLC’s Assisted Living Project. Given common ownership of both projects, it is questionable whether the traffic volumes generated by the Assisted Living Project should be included in the No-Build Case or the Build Case. We believe inclusion of the trips generated by the Assisted Living Project in the No-Build Case can be justified because the Assisted Living Project can proceed under existing zoning. Given that the trips generated by the Assisted Living Project are relatively small, inclusion of these volumes under the No- Build Case does not serve to significantly understate project impacts. Filings under the Massachusetts Environmental Policy Act (MEPA) (MGL Ch. 30, Sections 61-62H) will be required for this Project. It is likely that traffic impact analysis submitted under MEPA will be required to include trips generated by the Assisted Living Project under the Build Case due to the segmentation provisions of MEPA (301 CMR. 11.01 (2)(c)). Trip Generation The trip generation forecast for the Proposed Project was developed using the Institute of Transportation Engineers “Trip Generation” Ninth Edition for 204 multifamily units (TE LUC 220), 80 age restricted units (ITE LUC 230), and 64 townhouse units (ITE LUC 252). The 348 dwelling units proposed for the Plymouth Rubber Redevelopment Project will generate 2,080 vehicle trips per day of which 155 are generated in the weekday morning peak hour and 195 vehicle trips are generated during the weekday evening peak hour. The trip generation methodology used complies with standard engineering practice.
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WAC Memorandum March 25, 2013 Page 14 Trip Distribution Trip distribution for the Proposed Project was developed based upon US Census J oumey to Work data. The largest component of trip origins and destinations by future residents is expected to be Neponset Street west (44%) and Washington Street north (28%). The trip generation methodology used has a quantitative basis and complies with standard engineering practice. Build Traffic Volumes The 2017 Build Traffic Volumes were developed by adding the trips generated by the Plymouth Rubber Redevelopment Project to the No-Build Traffic Volumes. Development of the 2017 Build Traffic Volumes complies with standard engineering practice. Signalized Intersection Operations There are four signalized intersections in the Traffic Study Area and all four signalized intersections operate at acceptable levels-of-service (LOS D or better) during the Existing 2012 Weekday Morning Peak Hour, the No-Build 2017 Weekday Morning Peak Hour, and The Build 2017 Weekday Morning Peak Hour as well as during the Existing 2012 Weekday Evening Peak Hour, the No-Build 2017 Weekday Evening Peak Hour, and the Build 2017 Weekday Evening Peak Hour. The Neponset Street and Chapman Street Intersection, the Washington Street and Bolivar Street Intersection, and the Washington Street and Sherman Street Intersection are not significantly impacted by traffic generated by the Proposed Project. The increase in delay for the Weekday Morning Peak Hour at the Neponset Street and Chapman Street Intersection (No-Build 2017 vs. Build 2017) caused by Project generated trips is 1.3 seconds. The increase in delay for the Weekday Evening Peak Hour (No-Build 2017 vs. Build 2017) is 0.8 seconds. There is no increase in delay for the Weekday Morning Peak Hour at the Washington Street and Bolivar Street Intersection (No-Build 2017 vs. Build 2017) caused by Project generated trips. The increase in delay for the Weekday Evening Peak Hour (No-Build 2017 vs. Build 2017) is 0.8 seconds. The increase in delay for the Weekday Morning Peak Hour at the Washington Street and Sherman Street Intersection (No-Build 2017 vs. Build 2017) caused by Project generated trips is 5.6 seconds. The increase in delay for the Weekday Evening Peak Hour (No-Build 2017 vs. Build 2017) is 0.6 seconds. The Washington Street and Revere Street Intersection is impacted by trips generated by the Proposed Project during the Weekday Morning Peak Hour but is not significantly impacted during the Weekday Evening Peak Hour. During the Morning Peak Hour, the intersection operates at LOS B (Existing 2012) and changes to LOS C (No-Build 2017) and changes to LOS D (Build 2017). The increase in delay for the Weekday Morning Peak Hour (No-Build 2017 vs. Build 2017) caused by Project generated trips is 15.4 seconds. During the Evening Peak Hour, the Washington Street and Revere Street Intersection
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Pi Memorandum March 25, 2013 Page 15 operates at LOS A (Existing 2012) and remains at LOS A (No-Build 2017) and changes to LOS B (Build 2017). The increase in delay for the Weekday Evening Peak Hour (No-Build 2017 vs. Build 2017) caused by Project generated trips is 1.9 seconds. Delay for Revere Street traffic at the Washington Street and Revere Street Intersection could be mitigated by increasing green time for this approach; however, this would decrease green time for Washington Street which has a significant northbound volume. Unsignalized Intersection Operations There are six existing unsignalized intersections in the Traffic Study Area and four of these existing unsignalized intersections operate at good levels-of-service (LOS C or better) during the Weekday Morning Peak Hour (Existing 2012, No-Build 2017, and Build 2017) as well as during the Weekday Evening Peak Hour (Existing 2012, No-Build 2017, and Build 2017). Four new unsignalized intersections will be added in the Traffic Study Area and all four new intersections will operate at good levels-of-service (LOS B or better) during the 2017 Build Weekday Morning Peak Hour as well as during the 2017 Build Weekday Evening Peak Hour. The Revere Street and South Site Drive Intersection and the Revere Street and Assisted Living Drive Intersection will operate at LOS A during the 2017 Build Weekday Morning Peak Hour and will operate at LOS A during the 2017 Build Weekday Evening Peak Hour. The Revere Street and Age Restricted Drive Intersection and the Revere Street and North Site Drive Intersection will operate at LOS B during the 2017 Build Weekday Morning Peak Hour and will operate at LOS B during the 2017 Build Weekday Evening Peak Hour. The Sherman Street, Beaumont Street, and Revere Street Intersection is impacted by trips generated by the Proposed Project during the Weekday Morning and the Weekday Evening Peak Hours. During the Morning Peak Hour, the intersection operates at LOS C (Existing 2012) and LOS C (No-Build 2017) and changes to LOS E (Build 2017). The increase in delay for the Weekday Moming Peak Hour (No-Build 2017 vs. Build 2017) caused by Project generated trips is 26.5 seconds. During the Evening Peak Hour, the intersection operates at LOS C (Existing 2012) and LOS C (No-Build 2017) and changes to LOS D (Build 2017). The increase in delay for the Weekday Evening Peak Hour (No-Build 2017 vs. Build 2017) caused by Project generated trips is 7.3 seconds. The Chapman Street, Spaulding Street, and Everett Street Intersection currently operates at unacceptable levels-of-service and it will be impacted by trips generated by the Plymouth Rubber Redevelopment Project. The intersection operates at LOS F during the Weekday Morning Peak Hour (Existing 2012/No- Build 2017/Build 2017) and also operates at LOS F during the Weekday Evening Peak Hour (Existing 2012/No-Build 2017/Build 2017).
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Ps Memorandum March 25, 2013 Page 16 MITIGATION Canton Holdings, LLC proposes several measures to mitigate project impacts. In our review of the Plymouth Rubber Redevelopment Project, PSC has developed recommendations for impact mitigation that incorporate and in certain instances expand Canton Holdings’ proposed mitigating measures. We also developed recommendations for additional mitigating measures. We recognize that the Plymouth Rubber Redevelopment Project is burdened by substantial costs relating to site and building demolition, remediation of hazardous materials, and maintenance and repair of the Neponset River flood control works. Resources available for impact mitigation are finite and the Town may be forced to prioritize desired mitigation. Water Distribution and Fire Protection There is an existing 6 inch diameter water distribution main in Revere Street that will serve the Proposed Project. Fire flow test data indicates that the volume of water available for fire protection for the Proposed Project is insufficient. Accordingly, Canton Holdings proposes to install 2,600 linear feet of 8 inch diameter CLDI watermain in Revere Street extending from Washington Street to the driveway north of multifamily Building 3. Although installation of this water main could benefit existing properties along Revere Street, it is primarily a required project improvement rather than off-site mitigation. PSC recommends that 3,700 feet of 12 inch diameter CLDI water main be installed in Revere Street from Washington Street to Sherman Street including reconnecting existing building services and provision of hydrant assemblies. Installation of a 12 inch diameter CLDI watermain along the entire length of Revere Street would benefit the Proposed Project and would also represent a significant improvement to the overall water distribution system. Revere Street Resurfacing Canton Holdings proposes to resurface Revere Street from Washington Street to the access drive way serving the 80 age restricted units in the northerly portion of the Project Site. PSC recommends resurfacing the entire length of Revere Street from Washington Street to Sherman Street a distance of approximately 3,700 linear feet. COE Dam and Diversion Channel Canton Holdings proposes to repair and maintain the Canton River dam and diversion Channel in accordance with the requirements of the US army corps of engineers in order to restore this flood control system to full functionality.
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Pi Memorandum March 25, 2013 Page 17 On-Site Water Control Mechanisms Canton Holdings proposes to upgrade certain on-site water control mechanisms. Access for Passive Recreation Canton Holdings proposes to provide access to the on-site walking trails and pack passive recreation areas including wetlands to residents of the Town of Canton as a whole. Wetlands Protection Canton Holdings proposes to convey certain on-site wetland and buffer areas to the Canton Conservation Commission which will facilitate their preservation. Providing the Conservation Commission with control over these valuable wetland resources is a significant environmental protection measure. Revere Street Sidewalk Canton Holdings proposes to construct a sidewalk on their property extending from the driveway South of Building 1 to the driveway North of Building 3. Although the sidewalk would be on the Plymouth Rubber site, it is located immediately adjacent to the Revere Street right-of-way and would be accessible to the general public. This would benefit project residents, but would be of limited benefit to Town of Canton residents due to its limited extent, and lack of continuity. PSC recommends extending the sidewalk along Revere Street from Washington Street to the walkways serving the age restricted units. Except along the Plymouth Rubber site’s frontage, the new sidewalk would have to be located within the Revere Street right-of-way. Canton Junction Access It is anticipated that future residents may choose to reside at the Plymouth Rubber site in part because train service is available within walking distance. Accordingly, we anticipate that future residents will walk along Revere Street and Sherman Street to reach Canton Junction. Residents may also choose to utilize the Canton Center stop but there is more frequent service available at Canton Junction. Walking along Revere Street which has no sidewalk may place pedestrians at risk, particularly where a narrow bridge with limited sight distance carries Revere Street beneath the MBTA Stoughton branch. If no sidewalk is available, some residents may be deterred from walking and may drive and park at Canton Junction instead. This will surcharge the parking lots with additional patrons and may deny parking places to residents with fewer options with respect to driving and parking.
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Ps Memorandum March 25, 2013 Page 18 We recommend that pedestrian access to Canton Junction be provided by extending the sidewalk northerly along Revere Street from the Project Site to a point near the existing railroad bridge and then extending the walkway easterly across the Project Site to connect to the center platform at the Canton Junction Railroad station. The construction of the portion of the walkway on MBTA property would require formal review and execution of an agreement by the MBTA. From the center platform at the Canton Junction Railroad station, the other two platforms and station building can be accessed using the existing pedestrian overpass structure. If it proves infeasible to extend the sidewalk to Canton Junction, the sidewalk should stop at the age restricted housing site. Infiltration and Inflow Removal The Plymouth Rubber Redevelopment Project if anticipated to generate approximately 67,000 gallons of sanitary sewage per day. Submitted gauging data for existing sanitary sewers indicates increases in normal sewer flows following storm events. This indicates that these existing major sewers lines are impacted by infiltration and inflow (I & J). It would therefore be appropriate to require I & I removal as a condition of allowing sewer connections for the Proposed Project. 1 & I removal could involve a cash contribution from Canton Holdings allowing I & I removal to be conducted by the Town as part of an area wide I & I removal program. Alternatively, the work could be performed by contractors engaged directly by Hansen Holdings in cooperation with the Canton Department of Public Works for pubic sewers or private parties for private sewers. Fire Station Access Chief Doody has expressed concerns regarding the ability of fire apparatus to exit the fire station in an emergency. Given the current and future traffic volumes on Revere Street, Chief Doody has requested the installation of a flashing signal he is with emergency preemption capabilities at the fire station driveway. The Chapman Street, Spaulding Street, and Everett Street Intersection The Chapman Street, Spaulding Street, and Everett Street Intersection operates at LOS F during the Weekday Morning Peak Hour (Existing 2012/No-Build 2017/Build 2017) and the intersection also operates at LOS F during the Weekday Evening Peak Hour (Existing 2012/No-Build 2017/Build 2017). Of the trips generated by the Plymouth Rubber Redevelopment Project, 46 percent will pass though this intersection. The westbound approach from Spaulding Street is the “critical” approach. For the morning peak hour under the No-Build Case, the westbound approach operates at LOS F with an approach delay of 335 seconds. Under the Build Case, the westbound approach delay increases to 577 seconds, a 72 percent increase. For the evening peak hour under the No-Build Case, the westbound approach operates at LOS F
Source page 59
pi Memorandum March 25, 2013 Page 19 with an approach delay of 101 seconds. Under the Build Case, the westbound approach delay increases to 188 seconds, or an 86 percent increase. Signalization could be considered if the intersection meets one or more of the Warrants set forth in the Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices (MUTCD). Signalization will be complex due to the intersection geometry and the concentration of trips during peak hours based upon trips associated with operation of Canton Junction. Due to the proximity of Jackson Street, turn restrictions or other traffic control measures may be required at the Jackson Street and Spaulding Street Intersection. Canton Holdings should submit 25 Percent and Final Design Submissions for these intersection improvements and if approved by the Towa, install the required improvements.
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Fiscal Impact Analysis: Redevelopment of Plymouth Rubber Site Canton, Massachusetts The Town of Canton has retained Mark Bobrowski, Esq., and a team of consultants to analyze the impacts and feasibility of a proposal from Canton Holdings, LLC, to redevelop the “Plymouth Rubber” site for mixed residential uses. As one of the Town’s consultants, Community Opportunities Group, Inc. (COG) is pleased to submit the following fiscal impact analysis. Project Description Canton Holdings, LLC (“Proponent”), proposes to construct 348 housing units with the mix of styles and ownership types shown in Table 1. 1 Table 1. Summary of Housing Units in Plymouth Rubber Redevelopment Plan Unit Type 1 Bedroom 2 Bedrooms Total Units Age restricted for-sale units in two 40-unit structures 24 56 80 Townhouse style for-sale units in 15 structures 64 64 Multifamily rental units in 6 structures 66 138 204 Total 90 258 348 In addition, the Proponent wants to develop an assisted living facility as a separate phase of the redevelopment project. This analysis assumes 48 units accommodating up to 58 residents. A facility of approximately 33,000 square feet might provide services to residents who need support with daily tasks and/or memory care facilities for those with Alzheimer’s or dementia. Summary of Findings Each year, the Proponent’s project will generate approximately $840,000 in real estate taxes and $69,000 in other local revenues, for a combined total of $909,000. The community service costs attributable to this development include $259,000 for municipal services and a range of $528,000 to $715,000 for education, for a total of $787,000 to $974,000. On average, the multifamily and townhouse units will house 48 school‐age children per year. The maximum estimate is 65 school‐age children. By contrast, there will be no school‐ age children in the age‐restricted units. Although Canton’s school buildings are currently at capacity, the Plymouth Rubber redevelopment project alone will not require the Town to expand its school facilities. 1 Plymouth Rubber Redevelopment, January 11, 2013
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Fiscal Impact Analysis: Proposed Redevelopment of Plymouth Rubber Site / 2 Some Town departments may not have enough capacity to absorb the additional service demands from residents of the Proponent’s development and other developments that are already in the pipeline or expected in the near future. In particular, the Canton Police Department and Canton Fire Department are expected to need as many as four additional police officers and four additional firefighters in order to maintain current levels of service as the population continues to grow, i.e., a total of eight additional public safety personnel. Available data indicate that the Proponent’s 348‐unit project accounts for about one‐half of Canton’s total anticipated housing growth over the next five years. Accordingly, this FIA attributes one‐half of the cost to maintain current service levels to the Plymouth Rubber site. Assuming the Proponent’s project generates an average enrollment of 48 students per year, the Town can expect a favorable fiscal impact, with positive net revenue of $122,000. If the number of school children reaches the high end of the projected range, the project’s fiscal impact will fall slightly into the negative, costing the Town $65,000 annually. A 58‐bed assisted living facility (not included in estimates above), will generate $55,000 annually in property taxes. Attributing a further portion of needed public safety personnel for emergency response to this development, the assisted living facility will cost the Town about $34,000 for municipal services, thus generating positive net revenue of $21,000. The construction cost for the proposed redevelopment, including the assisted living facility, will create approximately 150 jobs in the short term (including construction and induced employment), totaling nearly $10 million in aggregate wages. On an ongoing basis, the proposed development will generate economic benefits, as residents spend an estimated $10 million on goods and services from Canton businesses, inducing the creation of up to 178 jobs, including those employed at the assisted living facility. Overview: Fiscal Impact Studies A fiscal impact analysis (FIA) examines both the local government revenue and local government service costs associated with a particular land use. The relationship is expressed as a ratio of costs to revenue, known simply as a “cost‐revenue ratio.” A land use is “revenue positive” if it generates more revenue than it costs in public services. A “revenue neutral” land use represents the break‐even point, and a “revenue negative” land use costs more in community services than the amount of revenue it produces. A fiscal impact analyst estimates new costs and revenues based on known trends and foreseeable future conditions. Fiscal impact studies have several limitations and they should be used with caution because: Analysts frequently disagree about the fiscal impact of new development, particularly housing development.
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Fiscal Impact Analysis: Proposed Redevelopment of Plymouth Rubber Site / 3 No fiscal impact model adequately accounts for a municipality’s fiscal condition, yet the real impacts of a project are largely determined by context: the demographic, economic and fiscal characteristics of the receiving community. Revenue ratio studies rely on present costs and revenues to describe the fiscal outcome of a development that is not yet built. However, changes in the economy, public policy, population demographics, and technology result in a fluctuating fiscal position for most land uses. The history of fiscal impact literature is replete with “advocacy” studies: modeling that supports a particular conclusion. In fact, fiscal impact studies were originally used in the United States to advocate for urban renewal and new housing development. In the past 20 years, they have been used to promote economic growth, open space protection, high‐end or luxury housing, and compact development. In short, proponents of all types of projects have found room in fiscal impact methodologies to defend what they hope to accomplish. In isolation, cost‐revenue ratios convey an incomplete picture of a development’s fiscal outcome. A land use may seem advantageous because it produces a positive cost‐to‐ revenue ratio, but the amount surplus revenue it generates (in dollars) may be strikingly low. In our experience, this kind of outcome is usually associated with low‐intensity land use. Fiscal impact analysis assigns a dollar value to the estimated change in demand for a given government service. However, there is no guarantee that the community will use the revenue from new development to offset the impact of that development on local government services. Many communities that have absorbed growth in demands for police, fire, public works, and other town services have not increased the capacity of these departments, preferring instead to allocate new revenues to public schools. The result is increasingly stressed (if not eroded) levels of service and an impact akin to an opportunity cost. The recurring cost and revenue assumptions discussed in our review are based in part on Canton’s Fiscal Year (FY) 2012 General Fund appropriations and revenue as reported by the Town’s Finance Department and the Massachusetts Department of Revenue (DOR). Tax revenue projections reflect our understanding of the estimated sale prices for market‐rate and affordable units. Population Impacts Presently Canton has an average household size of 2.57 persons per household, with 0.44 school‐age children per unit.2 The majority of residents live in single‐family homes with 3‐4 bedrooms, which comprise over 60 percent of the Town’s housing stock.3 Canton has slightly 2 U.S. Census, 2010, SF‐1. 3 ACS 2006‐2010.
Source page 63
Fiscal Impact Analysis: Proposed Redevelopment of Plymouth Rubber Site / 4 smaller households compared with most of its neighboring communities, and above‐average median income and median home value (see Appendix Table 1). The proposed housing will attract a different mix of households than the town‐wide average, as it consists entirely of 1‐2 bedroom units in multifamily or townhouse structures, and a portion of these will be age‐restricted. The range of projected school‐age children per unit, shown in Table 2, is based on data from numerous sources on the number of children living in comparable existing developments in Canton and the region. This range reflects potential fluctuation, as the resident population and composition of households – particularly of rental housing – is prone to change from year to year. The projection of the number of children who will enroll in school from this development is based on observations of enrollment from comparable residential developments in Canton and the suburban eastern Massachusetts region reported by school administrations and the U.S. Census. The lower end of the projected range is consistent with experience from local apartment and condominium developments, while the upper end of the range reflects state‐wide or regional trends. A sample of five townhouse developments with a combined total of 390 units (all two bedroom units, mostly in townhouse‐style buildings) have an average of 0.09 children per unit enrolled in the Canton Public Schools.4 Currently there are 208 children enrolled in the school district from a sample of six multifamily rental developments in Canton (totaling 753 1‐3 bedroom units) averaging 0.28 children per unit.5 A similar sample of 15 developments (totaling 752 1‐3 bedroom units) had an average enrollment of 0.24 children per unit in 2007.6 These observations are consistent with observations of enrollment data collected from comparable developments throughout the region over the past decade, shown in Appendix Table 2. The projected range assumes that the units will all be sold or rented at market rates; affordable units would likely have slightly higher ratios of children per unit. 4 Connery Associates, “Fiscal Impact Analysis for Paul Revere Commons” (2008), which includes Evergreen Circle, Forge Pond, and 115‐125 Revere Street; and Kenneth Leon (Finance Director, Canton School Department), February 2013, which includes Indian Woods and Oak Knoll. 5 Kenneth Leon (Finance Director, Canton School Department), February 2013. 6 Connery Associates (2008).
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Fiscal Impact Analysis: Proposed Redevelopment of Plymouth Rubber Site / 5
Table 2. High/Low Estimate of School-Age Children
School-Age School-Age Units Projected Projected
Children/Unit Children/Unit Children Children
(Average) (Maximum) Average Maximum
Scenario Scenario
Townhouse Condo 2 BR 0.15 0.25 64 10 17
Total Townhouse Condo 64 10 17
Age-Restricted 1 BR 0.00 0.00 24 0 0
Age-Restricted 2 BR 0.00 0.00 56 0 0
Total Age-Restricted 80 0 0
Multifamily Rental 1 BR 0.05 0.10 66 3 7
Multifamily Rental 2 BR 0.25 0.30 138 35 41
Total Multifamily Rental 204 38 48
Total All Units 348 48 65
This projected range, based largely on actual enrollment counts from comparable
developments, reflects the number of children that can be expected to enroll in the public
school, and does not include those who may be unenrolled or attend private schools. Still, it
should be noted that 17 percent of the school‐age children reported by the Census Bureau
attend private schools or homeschool, and they are not enrolled in the public schools.7
Moreover, the projection conservatively assumes that all of the children may be new to the
school district, yet many students residing in multifamily developments are likely to move from
elsewhere in the same town.8
In a similar fashion, a projection of the number of people who will live at the proposed
development is based upon federal census data for comparable types of development.9
Including all the unit types and sizes for the condominium and rental portion of the
development, the average projected household size is 1.84 persons per household, or a total of
640 people. In addition, the assisted living facility will house an estimated 58 residents.
GROWTH CONTEXT
New development has been slow in recent years because of the recession. Over the past five
years, about 30 new homes have been constructed in Canton each year, primarily single family
homes.10 Two previously permitted projects which have been on hold, including a 196‐unit
multifamily rental project by AvalonBay Communities and a 53‐unit age‐restricted townhouse
development by Pulte Homes, are expected to resume construction this year, which will result
in an additional 249 units of townhouse and multifamily development. Assuming a comparable
rate of single and 2‐4 family construction as has taken place in recent years, the proposal from
7 ACS 2006‐2010, School enrollment by type of school by age
8 Newton Public Schools, Enrollment Analysis Report 2004‐2005 to 2009‐2010.
9 2010 Census for eastern MA excluding Suffolk County
10 Annual Reports of the Canton Building Department, 2003‐2012. New residential construction permits excluding
large multifamily developments in 2006 and 2008.Source page 65
Fiscal Impact Analysis: Proposed Redevelopment of Plymouth Rubber Site / 6 Canton Holdings represents about half of the growth that will likely occur over the next five years. Municipal Service Costs The Town of Canton will absorb costs to provide school and municipal services to the residents of this development. Cost projections refer to a recent year’s actual budgeted expenditures to establish the cost of services per capita for existing Town residents. The cost per capita, multiplied by the projected number of future residents, provides the basis for the estimated cost of services for the proposed development. As a substantial portion of the Town’s operating budget covers fixed costs (such as administration and facilities) which are not affected in the short term by changes in population. An estimated marginal (or variable) cost ratio for each department is based upon a detailed analysis of municipal budget data provided by the Town of Canton Finance Department, as well as interviews with Town Department heads to evaluate how growth affects departmental operations. The following sections explain in detail how cost projections relate to anticipated impacts on each department. SCHOOL COSTS According to the Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (DESE), the per pupil cost of education in Canton is $13,414 (FY11). This includes administration, teachers, materials and equipment, guidance counseling, operations and maintenance, benefits, payments to out‐of‐district schools, and other expenses and services. As of October 1, 2012, PK‐ 12 enrollment in the Canton Public Schools is 3,312 students, district‐wide. Based upon a close analysis of the School Department budget, an estimated 18 percent of the education budget is considered to be fixed cost, which primarily includes school administration and facilities maintenance, while 82 percent of expenses correlate with the size of enrollment, such as instructional staff and supplies. Therefore, the marginal cost is approximately $11,000 per pupil. The projected range of 48 to 65 pupils from the proposed development will generate an additional $528,000‐$715,000 annually to school‐related costs. The projection of education costs assumes that children from the proposed development will have a similar profile to the current population, in terms of the proportion who require special education services or who attend out‐of‐district schools. The projection assumes that new students will be accommodated in the existing schools, and that there will be no additional school construction.11 11 An additional school would increase marginal annual cost per pupil due to added administration, maintenance, and other expenses, in addition to the one‐time cost of construction. See Capital Cost section of this analysis for further discussion of school capacity.
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Fiscal Impact Analysis: Proposed Redevelopment of Plymouth Rubber Site / 7
Table 3. High/Low Estimate of Education Cost
DOE Per Pupil Variable % Variable Per Projected Projected
Cost (FY11) Pupil cost low cost high
Education Costs $13,414 82% $11,000 $528,000 $715,000
OTHER MUNICIPAL SERVICES
In FY2012, Canton spent a total of $30.7 million on non‐school related services and expenses.
Some municipal departments address demands for municipal services generated by commercial
activity as well as residents, in particular General Government, Public Safety, and Public Works.
An estimated 22 percent of the budget for these categories of departments is allocated to
commercial uses, based upon the commercial share of Canton’s total assessed valuation.12 While
there is no direct correlation between valuation and cost of services, this ratio provides a
reasonable indication of the scale of commercial activity relative to residential uses.13 Spending
for and Culture & Recreation, on the other hand, is attributed entirely to residents, while the
Health and Human Services category has a mix of departments which serve only residents and
both residents and businesses. The estimated per capita spending for municipal services to
residents was $1,300. A large proportion of this spending is for overhead costs which will not be
impacted by new development.
Variable portions of the budgets for each category of spending were determined through
discussions with Town department heads, as well as analysis of detailed budgets provided by
Canton’s Department of Finance. Following is a discussion of how the proportion of variable
cost was derived for each category of spending, and how the findings relate to anticipated
impacts on department operations. The proposed development will generate an estimated
$229,000 in municipal service costs for the condominium and apartment portion of the
development. The assisted living facility will generate an additional $28,000 in municipal
service costs at a higher rate of $479 per capita for the estimated 58 residents, due to higher
Public Safety costs (described below).
General Government: This category includes a broad range of departments that support the
function of the Town government. Of the departments that comprise General Government,
some departments are directly impacted by growth in population, such as the Executive Office,
Town Clerk, Treasurer/Collector, while other departments, including Finance Department,
Human Resources, Information Technology, Facilities Maintenance, and expenses supporting
various boards and committees, are not. Those departments that will be impacted include some
12Massachusetts Department of Revenue Division of Local Services Municipal Databank, Assessed Value by Class
2003‐2013.
13 Proportional valuation is a well‐known and widely used theory of nonresidential fiscal impact. This estimate was
confirmed by Chief Doody, Town of Canton Fire Department, by telephone to Community Opportunities Group,
Inc..Source page 67
Fiscal Impact Analysis: Proposed Redevelopment of Plymouth Rubber Site / 8
fixed, as well as variable costs.14 A projected $8,000 in cost attributed to the proposed
development reflects additional hours of administrative staff that might respond to resident
inquiries or support record‐keeping, assessment, or tax collection for residents of the proposed
development.
Public Safety: The Police and Fire Departments will respond to emergency calls at the
proposed development. In addition, the Fire Department performs annual inspections of
multifamily rental buildings. (Inspections are also required for multifamily condo units upon
sale of unit, but these are compensated through fees.) Current staffing of the Fire Department is
strained in terms of providing adequate coverage for emergency calls. The need to increase the
capacity for emergency response will become more pressing given anticipated growth in the
community, including this and other developments in the pipeline.15 In particular, assisted
living facilities generate a disproportionate volume of emergency medical calls. Furthermore,
emergency medical calls in multi‐unit buildings (with or without age restrictions) involve more
personnel time than calls in one‐family dwellings, and the same is true with fire suppression
incidents even in multi‐unit buildings with sprinkler systems. As a result, the impact of multi‐
family development on fire and police services is not the same as that associated with one‐ or
two‐family development, measured on a per‐unit basis.
The Fire Department anticipates the need to add a full‐time position to each shift in order to
accommodate the increased calls generated by all of the anticipated growth, and comparable
staffing increases are required for the Police Department, i.e., a total of eight full‐time public
safety personnel.16 The starting salary for firefighters and police officers in Canton is $45,000,
plus 30 percent for benefits. An estimated $10,000 per person provides for additional costs such
as training, uniforms, and miscellaneous equipment, and a proportional share of an additional
cruiser. Attributing approximately half of the needed expansion in services to the Plymouth
Rubber redevelopment project, the public safety impact is equivalent to the cost of four full‐
time positions (one additional person per shift) and related non‐personnel expenses.
Public Works: The Public Works Department anticipates little, if any impact from the proposed
development. There may be some additional hourly labor if the DPW is called on to provide
additional snow clearance, road maintenance, lighting, or other maintenance tasks, although all
of the infrastructure maintenance and trash removal services on site are to be assumed by the
developer. The proposed development will not impact the cost of maintaining existing assets.17
Estimated 70% fixed/30% variable. James Murgia, Finance Director, Town of Canton, by telephone to Community
14
Opportunities Group, Inc. (February 1, 2013).
15 Chief Doody, Townof Canton Fire Department, by telephone to Community Opportunities Group, Inc. (February 4,
2013 and February 13, 2013).
16 Chief Doody Town of Canton Fire Department and Chief Berkowitz , Town of Canton Police Department, by
telephone to Community Opportunities Group, Inc. (February 8, 2013 and February 14, 2013).
Michael Trotta, Director, Town of Canton Department of Public Works, by telephone to Community Opportunities
17
Group, Inc. (February 1/13).Source page 68
Fiscal Impact Analysis: Proposed Redevelopment of Plymouth Rubber Site / 9
Nevertheless, a minimal marginal cost for Public Works, $2,000, accounts for any expenses that
might occur as a result of infrastructure maintenance that might be incurred by the Town from
this development.
Health & Human Services: The Health Department, Council on Aging, and Veterans Services
Department all provide services which are directly affected by growth in population, in
particular, seniors and elderly. Expenses related to Veteran’s Services are largely reimbursed (75
percent) through State funding. While there is some capacity to adjust the level of services and
programming to accommodate residents’ needs, future growth – including this development
and other projects in the pipeline – is likely to necessitate increases in staff time and department
resources, particularly for the Board of Health.18 The Council on Aging reports that with their
current facilities and level of staffing new market rate housing will generate little increase in
demand for services, but if they are successful in petitioning for a new Senior Center (with
associated parking) and increased staffing, then they can anticipate a higher rate of participation
in programs they provide among seniors of all income levels.19
Given the complexity of the operations of these departments, and their flexibility in matching
available resources to the needs of the public, it is difficult to establish a correlation between an
increase in population and expenses for these departments. Nevertheless, a reasonable estimate
of the scale of impact from this development, reflecting nonsupervisory staff time, as well as a
portion of expenses and equipment for these departments, which results in a total marginal cost
estimate of $11,000.
Culture & Recreation: This category includes the Library and the Recreation Department, both
of which are somewhat sensitive to growth in population. The Recreation Department
programs are funded through user fees, so there will be no net increase in cost, other than for
increased maintenance of outdoor fields.20 The Library has adjusted to changes in demand over
the past several years through automating technology and increases in volunteer support,
minimizing changes in staffing. Additional population, particularly seniors, will increase
demand for materials. The library does not currently have outreach services to shut‐in
populations, but if there was demand for such a program this could down the road necessitate
staffing to supplement volunteer support.21
An estimate of $5,000 for Culture & Recreation reflects the cost of increased field maintenance
by the Recreation Department, and Library costs primarily for books and periodicals to meet
increased demand.
18 John Ciccotelli, Director, Town of Canton Board of Health Director, by telephone to Community Opportunities
Group, Inc. (February 1, 2013), Tony Andreotti, Director, Town of Canton Veterans Services, by telephone to
Community Opportunities Group, Inc. (February 4, 2013).
19 Council on Aging, by telephone to Community Opportunities Group, Inc. (February 21, 2013)
20 Janet Maguire, Recreation Department, by telephone to Community Opportunities Group, Inc. (February 4, 2013).
21 Mark Lague, Recreation Department, by telephone to Community Opportunities Group, Inc. (February 11, 2013).Source page 69
Fiscal Impact Analysis: Proposed Redevelopment of Plymouth Rubber Site / 10 Debt Service, Intergovernmental Assessments, Employee Benefits: No variable cost is associated with Debt Service, Intergovernmental Assessments (with the exception of regional schools, discussed earlier), or other miscellaneous expenditures, because these expenditures will not be impacted by future growth.22 Employee benefits will increase where additional staffing is required, more or less in proportion to the variable budgets for each department. A cost estimate of $52,000 represents 30 percent of the estimated cost to all of the municipal departments listed above. MUNICIPAL REVENUES PROPERTY TAX The largest source of revenue that the proposed development will generate for the Town is from property taxes. The assessed value of the ownership units will be closely linked to their market price. The Plymouth Rubber Development document indicates that the applicant expects to sell the two bedroom townhouse units for $343,000‐$405,000, and the one and two bedroom age‐ restricted condos for $223,000‐$333,000. If the applicant’s assumptions are a reliable basis for forecasting new property tax revenue, Canton would receive approximately $576,000 per year in tax revenue for the ownership units when they are built and sold, at the FY2012 residential tax rate of $11.91/$1,000. A look at comparable townhouse developments in Canton, Norwood, and Dedham indicate that that this value estimate somewhat overstates what is realistic under current real estate market conditions. While there are not as many comparable age‐restricted developments in the vicinity that resemble the proposed multifamily condos, listings in the eastern Massachusetts region also suggest a lower price range. Using several recently built townhouse condo developments in Canton as a guide (including Turtle Brook, Indian Woods Way, Forge Pond, 21 Rockland Street, and Canton Point), the projected revenue was based on a value of $230 per square foot, which falls within the range of assessed value per square foot for comparable properties. This results in a more conservative projection of $320,000 ‐$380,000 assessed value per unit for the Townhouse units and $200,000‐$295,000 per unit for the age‐restricted condos. The ownership units can thus be expected to generate $525,000 per year in property taxes, as a more conservative projection. A review of on‐line rental listings indicates that, the rents anticipated by the proponent, $1,700‐ $2,400,23 are within the range of current rents at comparable multifamily communities in Canton and similar towns. Observations of a sample of major multifamily developments in Canton, range from $73‐$116 assessed valuation per square foot. Value per square foot is directly correlated with the age of the development, the most recent development being New River Village at 59 Walpole Street, built in 2009, which is valued at $116 per square foot. Assuming that the proposed development will be valued on a similar scale, a slightly conservative per 22James Murgia, Finance Director, Town of Canton, by telephone to Community Opportunities Group, Inc. (February 1, 2013). 23 Plymouth Rubber Redevelopment, 1/11/2013.
Source page 70
Fiscal Impact Analysis: Proposed Redevelopment of Plymouth Rubber Site / 11 square foot value of $115 is applied, resulting in a projected assessed valuation of $26.5M, generating $315,000 annually in property tax revenue. A sample of assisted living facilities considered in Canton and around the region have a wide range of assessed valuation, reflecting a range in the style and quality of living spaces and services that the facilities provide for. Assisted living facilities in comparable communities throughout the region were used as a basis for projecting the assessed valuation for the proposed facility. Facilities of similar size in Quincy (Atrium at Faxon Woods) and Danvers (Atrium at Veronica Drive), both built in 2000, are valued at around $125 per square foot, while other developments range as high as $200 per square foot or higher. A value of $140 per square foot was estimated for the proposed development, given its size and location, and the age of the comparable units that were included in the sample. This results in a total projected value of $4.63M, generating $55,000 annually in tax revenues. OTHER REVENUES In addition to Property Taxes, the Town receives revenue from a number of other sources, including state aid, local receipts, and miscellaneous “other” sources Most of these revenues will be minimally affected by the proposed development (or, as in the Veteran’s Benefits, their impacts have already been taken into account in calculating marginal costs). Nevertheless the development will generate some growth to the Town’s local receipts, primarily through excise taxes and meals tax. Currently the Town receives an estimated $140 per vehicle registered to Town residents.24 As currently conceived, the Plymouth Rubber Redevelopment provides parking spaces for 465 vehicles (a ratio of 1.33 vehicles per unit). If the residents of the proposed development own this many vehicles, then the Town will receive $65,000 annually in excise tax revenues. In addition, Canton has adopted the local option meals tax of 0.75 percent, which generates $250,000 annually to the town.25 It is estimated that residents of the proposed development will contribute an additional $500,000 in local restaurant sales, which will generate $4,000 in meals tax revenues for the Town.26 A significant source of funding for Canton’s School District comes from the state. In FY 2012, the Town received $3.8M in Chapter 70 funding, about 12 percent of the total school spending. The formula for Chapter 70 funding takes into account the number of students enrolled in the district, as well as numerous factors including property valuation and residents’ income. This 24James Murgia, Finance Director, Town of Canton, by telephone to Community Opportunities Group, Inc. (February 20, 2013). 25James Murgia, Finance Director, Town of Canton, by telephone to Community Opportunities Group, Inc. (February 20, 2013). 26 2% of resident incomes spent in local restaurants, based on Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Data for 2011, and Canton’s current per capita meals tax revenues, assuming half of restaurant meals are consumed locally.
Source page 71
Fiscal Impact Analysis: Proposed Redevelopment of Plymouth Rubber Site / 12
analysis assumes that the town will not receive any change in Chapter 70 funding as a result of
enrollment from this development, and that the Town will absorb all increased cost resulting
from this development, although there could in fact be some increased revenue.
Net Fiscal Impact
As currently conceived, the Proponent’s development will generate service demands equivalent
to $787,000 to 974,000 in annual operating expenditures, including school and non‐school
services, and will generate a projected $909,000 in revenues when fully built out and occupied.
Table 5 provides a summary of the net impacts given the projected range of school children. The
average estimate generates a positive fiscal impact, with net revenues of $122,000, annually and
a cost/revenue ratio of 0.87. At the maximum estimate, the proposed development generates a
slight deficit: $.07 for every dollar of revenue generated (or a deficit of $65,000 annually).
Table 5. Estimate of Fiscal Impacts from Plymouth Rubber Development
Impact Estimate Students/ Total School Non- Total Net Cost
Population Revenue Costs School Service Revenue /Revenue
Costs Costs Ratio
Average Scenario 48/640 $909,000 $528,000 $259,000 $787,000 $122,000 0.87
Maximum Scenario 65/640 $909,000 $715,000 $259,000 $974,000 ($65,000) 1.07
Assisted Living NA/58 $55,000 0 $34,000 $34,000 $21,000 0.62
Facility
The assisted living portion of the development is expected to generate a net revenue of $21,000
annually, with a cost/revenue ratio of 0.62.
There will also be one‐time costs and revenues over the permitting and construction phase.
Building Department fees will more than cover the cost to Town departments directly involved
in this process, including the Building Department, Planning Department, Engineering, and Fire
Safety, as well as overhead costs for these departments reflected in other department budgets.27
Nevertheless, it is difficult, if not impossible, to relate a share of the full cost of maintaining the
departments involved in permitting and inspections to an individual development project in
order to quantify net benefits.
CAPITAL COSTS
School Capacity: Canton is currently at full capacity in all of its elementary schools and Galvin
Middle School, while the High School has limited capacity to expand classroom space.28 This
assessment takes into consideration the recent addition of four classrooms at the Kennedy
Elementary School. Enrollment projections for the next 5 years and beyond suggest that
enrollment in the elementary schools is currently at peak levels, and can be expected to edge
27Ed Walsh, Building Official, Town of Canton, by telephone to Community Opportunities Group, Inc. (February 13,
2013).
28 Ken Leon, Business Administrator, Canton Public Schools, by telephone to Community Opportunities Group, Inc.
(February 21, 2013).Source page 72
Fiscal Impact Analysis: Proposed Redevelopment of Plymouth Rubber Site / 13
downward. Peak enrollment of 815 students is projected for Grades 6‐8 in 2015/2016, while the
high school level peaks in 2018/2019 at 1,005 students (see Appendix).29 These projections do not
account for the impact of major development proposals such as the Plymouth Rubber site,
although they do take into consideration historic development and migration trends as well as
births.
The projection of how many students will be enrolled from this development at each level
assumes a similar distribution as current town‐wide enrollment. Enrollment data from
comparable multifamily developments is consistent with the distribution of students town‐
wide. It is to be determined which of the elementary schools the projected students would be
assigned to.
By the time this development is completed and fully occupied, the elementary schools will have
a comparable number of students to current enrollment, while the middle and high schools will
be stretched beyond the capacity of existing facilities. The proposed development contributes
to, but does not entirely generate anticipated capacity constraints for these schools. The School
Department does not currently have a plan for managing projected capacity issues for district
schools.30
Table 6. Current and Projected School Enrollment
Current Proportion Projected Projected Existing Projected Projected
Enrollment Average Maximum Capacity 2017/2018 Enrollment
Enrollment Enrollment Enrollment w/ this
Development
Hansen 477 Full
Luce 455 Full
Kennedy 564 Full
Subtotal 1,496 45% 22 29 1,445 1,467-1,474
Elementary
Galvin 769 23% 11 15 Full 780 791-795
Middle
High School 898 27% 13 18 Some 1,004 1,017-1,022
Other 149 4% 2 3
Total 3,312 48 65
Other Facilities: The Recreation Department lacks the space needed to increase recreational
programming to match growing demand.31 The Council on Aging is also tightly constrained.32
29 NESDEC, “Canton MA Projected Enrollment”, 2/5/2013
30 Ken Leon, Business Administrator, Canton Public Schools, by telephone to Community Opportunities Group, Inc.
(February 21, 2013).
31 Janet Maguire, Recreation Department, by telephone to Community Opportunities Group, Inc. (February 4, 2013).
32 Council on Aging, by telephone to Community Opportunities Group, Inc. (February 22, 2013).Source page 73
Fiscal Impact Analysis: Proposed Redevelopment of Plymouth Rubber Site / 14 While new growth will exacerbate crowded conditions, the proposed development does not, itself, put the town over the capacity threshold, as the departments are already coping with these constraints through prioritizing programming. ECONOMIC IMPACT The proposed development will generate economic benefit to the Town in the form of temporary construction jobs, as well as permanent employees of the assisted living facility, increased sales in local businesses, and jobs providing retail, real estate management, personal service, and other support services to residents of the new development. The projected construction cost of the 348‐unit apartment/condominium development is $8.9M, which will providing an estimated 51 construction jobs, and generating $3.7M in construction wages. The assisted living facility, with construction cost of $5.7M, will provide an additional 33 jobs, generating $2.3M in construction wages. In addition, this activity will induce further economic benefit for Canton, as a variety of local services support the construction and sales of units, and construction employees spend a portion of their income locally as well. The total impact including induced employment and wages is 91 jobs / $5.9M wages for the condos and apartments, while the assisted living facility generates a total 59 jobs / $3.8M wages. On an ongoing basis, the assisted living development could be expected to have 47 employees, with total payroll of $2.9M.33 As these employees will also induce further economic activity, the total impact of the assisted living facility is 69 employees and $4.8M total wages. Residents of the apartments and condos will also shop and consume services in town. Based on the anticipated sales prices and rents, household incomes in the range of $50,000‐$85,000 are projected, totaling $27M. According to data collected by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, households spend an estimated 40 percent of their income on locally‐obtained goods and services. Thus the residents of the proposed development may contribute $11M in sales to businesses in Canton. This projection does not include residents of the assisted living facility, as their needs will be supported within the facility, itself. Another method of estimating economic impact is provided by the National Homebuilders Association, which conducted a national study of economic impacts from housing development, and found that 100 units of market rate apartment or condominium housing induces 32 jobs in the local economy, which translates to 108 jobs to support the residents of this development. At an average wage of $60,000, the development generates a total of $7M in aggregate wages. 33 Bernie Plante, email to Community Opportunities Group, Inc. (February 15, 2013).
Source page 74
Fiscal Impact Analysis: Proposed Redevelopment of Plymouth Rubber Site / 15 Commuter Rail Impact The proposed redevelopment site is located almost exactly one half mile from both Canton Junction and Canton Center train stations. MAPC bases projections of commuter rail users on ACS data, which indicates an average of 1.2 members of the workforce per household, of whom 12 percent who live within a half mile of a train station.34 Utilizing a slightly smaller workforce participation rate for the age‐restricted households of 0.75, the total number of working residents at the Plymouth Rubber redevelopment site is estimated at 382. Of these, an estimated 48 residents would use the commuter rail to ride to work. Affordable Housing Impact The above analysis assumes all market‐rate units, as originally proposed. The inclusion of affordable units will change the fiscal outcome, as it will affect property tax revenues and change the projected ratio of school children per unit. Following is an analysis of two scenarios: providing 35 affordable units divided proportionally among the townhouse and rental units (10 percent development‐wide), or providing 51 affordable units within the rental portion of the development only (25 percent of rental). To be eligible for Canton’s Chapter 40B Subsidized Housing Inventory, units must be affordable to households within income limits established by HUD, earning below at or below 80 percent of the Area Median Income (AMI) for the Boston Metro Area. Assuming a value of a $174,000 per unit, the affordable ownership units would generate about $2,100 per unit annually in property tax revenue, compared with the projected $4,300‐$4,600 per unit for market rate condos. The projected value of the apartment complex does not change, as several of the comparable developments that were evaluated in establishing the projected value include affordable units. Windsor Woods, for example, built in 2007 with 25 percent affordable units, is assessed at $113/square foot.35 School enrollment in affordable units is typically higher than enrollment in market rate units. Observations from developments in Canton and other communities in the region suggest that the number of enrolled children may be 2‐3 times as high in affordable units as market rate. Under the first scenario, with 35 affordable units, the total number of school children will be 5‐ 14 higher than if the development were all market rate. At an estimated $11,000 per pupil, the inclusion of affordable units under this scenario increases the projected municipal cost by approximately $55,000‐$154,000. Under the second scenario, the inclusion of 51 affordable rental units will add 11‐22 children to the enrollment projections, increasing projected municipal cost by $121,000‐$242,000. 34 Estimate based on 2006‐10 American Community Survey data, via email from Meghna Dutta of MAPC, 2/22/2013. 35 Town of Canton Assessor’s Database, FY2013
Source page 75
Fiscal Impact Analysis: Proposed Redevelopment of Plymouth Rubber Site / 16
Table 7. Summary of Fiscal Impact of Affordable Housing Scenarios
Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Affordable Units 35 (8 townhouse + 27 rental) 51 (rental)
Additional School Children 5-14 11-22
Change in Revenue ($18,000-$20,000) $0
Change in Municipal Costs $55,000-$154,000 $121,000-$242,000
Table8. Impact Estimate with Affordable Housing Scenario 1
Students Total School Non- Total Net Cost
Revenue Costs School Service Revenue /Revenue
Costs Costs Ratio
Average Scenario 53 891,000 $583,000 $229,000 $812,000 79,000 0.91
Comparison 79 891,000 $869,000 $229,000 $1,098,000 1.23
Scenario (207,000)
Table 9. Impact Estimate with Affordable Housing Scenario 2
Students Total School Non- Total Net Cost
Revenue Costs School Service Revenue /Revenue
Costs Costs Ratio
Average Scenario 59 $909,000 $649,000 $229,000 $878,000 31,000 0.97
Comparison
87 $909,000 $957,000 $229,000 $1,186,000 (277,000) 1.30
ScenarioSource page 76
Fiscal Impact Analysis: Proposed Redevelopment of Plymouth Rubber Site / 17 APPENDIX
Source page 77
Fiscal Impact Analysis: Proposed Redevelopment of Plymouth Rubber Site / 18
Appendix Table 1. Comparative Regional Data (Neighboring Towns excluding Boston
School % Avg % HH Median %
Aged School Median House- HH % % HH w/ w/ HH Housing % Renter Single Median
Population Pop. Aged Age Holds Size Families Children Seniors Income Units Occupied Family Value
Canton 21,561 3,874 18% 42.3 8,378 2.57 68% 33% 30% $89,705 8,762 25% 61.4 $457,400
Randolph 32,112 5,103 16% 39.9 11,551 2.78 70% 34% 28% $64,607 12,008 28% 59.8 $321,600
Stoughton 26,962 4,284 16% 42.9 10,295 2.62 69% 31% 30% $67,175 10,787 24% 62.3 $335,900
Sharon 17,612 3,981 23% 43.3 6,219 2.83 81% 42% 25% $115,172 6,456 13% 83.7 $478,300
Norwood 28,602 4,096 14% 41.1 11,917 2.40 61% 28% 29% $72,472 12,479 41% 45.9 $387,200
Westwood 14,618 3,499 24% 43.9 5,249 2.78 75% 40% 37% $114,250 5,431 12% 83 $629,700
Dedham 24,729 3,816 15% 43.4 9,651 2.56 65% 30% 32% $80,865 10,191 26% 72.1 $388,100
Average/
Total 166,196 28,653 17% 63,260 2.63 $86,321 66,114 26% 63.9 $428,314
Source: U.S. Census, 2000, 2010, SF-1, ACS 2006-2010.Source page 78
Fiscal Impact Analysis: Proposed Redevelopment of Plymouth Rubber Site / 19
Appendix Table 2. Summary of Data on School Children Generation
Multifamily Rental Townhouse
Data Source 1 2 2 Bedroom
All Sizes All Sizes
Bedroom Bedroom Aff.
Public User Microdata Sample
(PUMS), Canton Region, 2011
0.035 0.285 0.281 0.135 0.352
(1), school age children (age 5-
18)
Enrollment from sample of
0.280
comparable developments in 0.090
0.240
Canton (2)
Enrollment from sample of
comparable developments in 0.190 0.160
Eastern MA suburban region (3)
Estimated for Plymouth Rubber
0.050 0.250 0.150
Development (Average)
Estimated for Plymouth Rubber
0.100 0.300 0.250
Development (Maximum)
(1) 2011 American Community Survey (ACS) Five-Year Estimates, cross-tabulated PUMS records: school-age
children (age 5-18) per unit by number of bedrooms by number of units in structure by rent levels. Analysis
includes three PUMAS: 03700 (Canton, Randolph, Holbrook, Randolph, Stoughton, part Braintree); 03500
(Medfield, Norfolk, Norwood, Sharon, part Walpole, Westwood); and 02600 (Dover, Dedham, Needham).
(2) Town of Canton School Department, 2013; Connery Associates, “Fiscal Impact Analysis for Paul Revere
Commons”, 2008.
(3) Includes a mixture of 1, 2, and 3 bedroom units in various building types reflective of the housing stock in
the region.Source page 79
Fiscal Impact Analysis: Proposed Redevelopment of Plymouth Rubber Site / 20
Appendix Table 3. Estimate of Fiscal Impacts from Plymouth Rubber Development
Site/Address Year Number Unit Mix Total Children
of Units Children per Unit
Rental
Arboretum 2007 156 2 br (88%), 3br (12%) / Aff 54 0.35
20%
Arboretum 2013 “ “ 67 0.43
16-20 Bailey Court - Canton 2007 35 1 br (17%), 2 br (83%) / 1 0.03
Estates Market
32 Neponset Street- Canton 2007 29 1 br (59%), 2 br (41%) / 5 0.17
Estates Market
735 Randolph – Blue Hills Village 2007 98 1 br (55%), 2 br (35%) / Aff. 34 0.35
25%
735 Randolph – Blue Hills Village 2013 98 “ 27 0.28
315-317 Revere Street 2007 24 1 br (50%), 2 br (50%) 2 0.08
59 Walpole St - River Village 2013 56 1 br (7%), 2 br (93%) / Market 10 0.18
502-510 Sherman Street 2007 80 1 br (43%), 2 br (58%) 3 0.04
502-510 Sherman Street 2013 80 “ 18 0.23
25 Wall Street 2007 10 2 br (100%) 0 0.00
Bolivar Street – Waterfall Hills 2007 243 1 br (28%), 2 br (12%), 3br 48 0.20
(60%) / Market
Waterfall Drive 2013 “ “ 49 0.20
1-33 Will Drive - Canton Village 2007 56 2 br (100%) / Aff 100% 2 0.04
Windsor Woods 2013 160 1 br (28%), 2 br (72%) / Aff 41 0.26
25%
Plymouth Rubber PROJECTED 204 1 br (32%), 2 br (68%) / 38-48 0.19-0.24
Redevelopment Market
Condominium/Townhouse
Evergreen Circle 2007 66 2 br (100%) 6 0.09
Forge Pond 2007 35 2 br (100%) / Market 0 0.00
Indian Woods 2013 56 2 br (100%) / Aff 25% 19 0.34
Oak Knoll (84 Walpole Street) 2013 66 2 br (100%) / Market 4 0.06
Revere Estates 2007 58 2 br (100%) / Market 4 0.07
104 Revere Street - PROJECTED PROJECTED 64 2 br (100%) / Market 10-17 0.15-0.25Source page 80
Fiscalimpact Analysis: Proposed Redievelooment af Pymaouwtm Rubher Site / 21 School District: Canton, MA 2/5/2013 WP 4f f Iara e eas a eee i a [sass rs] S353 | toes | is emer t cet oe [sees 1 cet eet oe 1 eer eet eet [sovr-se | teas _| seas] —tese_| 225 | ive | reo_| S27] 1531] 008 Pssst est par] tee} see ae] ee oe ef Projections” 7 Projections are more reiiabie for Years 1-5 in the future than for Years 6 and beyond. © New England School Development Council - 508.481-9444 - www.nesdec.org [Original embedded text, retained for comparison] Fiscal Impact Analysis: Proposed Redevelopment of Plymouth Rubber Site / 21