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Source page 1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
PLYMOUTH RUBBER IMPACT ANALYSES
Over the past few years, Canton Holdings, LLC, of Westmont, Illinois (the "Owner"), the owner
of the Plymouth Rubber site on Revere Street in Canton, has proposed zoning amendments for the
conversion of the now-defunct industrial use to a residential facility. These zoning amendments were
rejected by Town Meeting voters or withdrawn, generally because the impacts of the proposed change
— on traffic, drainage, school population, town finances, and town services were not sufficiently clear.
The Plymouth Rubber site consists of approximately 34 acres. It is bounded by Revere Street on
the east, the Canton River on the west and north, and Mill Pond on the south (the "Property"). The old
mill is currently in a state of disrepair. There are some environmental hot spots on the Property that will
require cleanup under the Department of Environmental Protection's Massachusetts Contingency Plan
("MCP") Program. Any reuse of the Property will also require expensive asbestos removal and the
demolition of some buildings.
In 2012, the Owner floated a new proposal. This residential complex would have a total of 348
dwelling units in the following components:
64 Townhouse (for sale) dwellings in 15 buildings (all 2 bedrooms)
204 Apartment Units (for rent) in 6 buildings (1 and 2 bedroom units)
80 Age Restricted Units (for sale or rent) in 2 buildings
In December of 2012, the Canton Board of Selectmen asked Attorney Mark Bobrowski, of Concord,
Massachusetts, to head a team of interdisciplinary professionals charged with investigating the impacts
of this 348 unit proposal (the 348 Unit Proposal).
Attorney Bobrowski, together with Canton officials including the Town Manager and a member
of the Board of Selectmen, Planning Board, and School Committee, identified several issues to be
included in this study, and consultants to perform the analyses. Thomas C. Houston, of Professional
Services Corporation, PC, Foxborough, was selected to perform an investigation of the traffic and civil
engineering impacts of the 348 Unit Proposal. Mr. Houston already serves as the consulting civil
engineer to the Zoning Board of Appeals and Planning Board. Michael H. Jacobs, of MHJ Associates,
Brookline, was chosen to perform a financial analysis of the 348 Unit Proposal. He was specifically asked
to review the Owner's financial projections and to verify that the Proposal was economically feasible.
Judi Barrett, the Director of Planning at Communities Opportunity Group, Inc., of Boston, was asked to
review the redevelopment of the Property for its potential impact on the Town's finances. She analyzed
projected tax revenue, municipal costs, the number of likely school aged children, and secondary effects
on the economy of the Canton downtown.
It is important to note that Attorney Bobrowski and the consultants worked for the Town, not
the Owner. They met extensively with the municipal staff. They reported to an ad hoc group of staff
members and officials. Their reports were intended to be analytical and unbiased. These reports,
attached hereto, should form the basis for making informed decisions about the fate of the 348 Unit
Proposal.
1Source page 2
To understand the impacts of the 348 Unit Proposal, these reports should be read in full. Here is
a summary of major findings:
Traffic and Pedestrian Safety
Traffic expected from the Project can be adequately addressed, if certain mitigation measures
are provided, which are outlined in the PSC Report.
PSC recommends that a pedestrian connection be established from the Property to the Canton
Junction Station. PSC also recommends a sidewalk connection to Washington Street.
Drainage and Flood Control
The Property has adequate space to accommodate the on-site mitigation of stormwater. The
redevelopment presents an opportunity to correct and maintain on-site water control mechanisms,
including the Canton River Dam and Diversion Channel, which are now the responsibility of the Town.
Water and Sewer
PSC recommends the installation of a new 12" water main on Revere Street from Washington
Street to Sherman Street (3700 feet) and the connection of existing users. PSC also recommends that
the Owner pay into a fund to remove inflow and infiltration (l&l) from the sewer system.
Affordable Dwelling Units
The Owner has committed to restricting 51 of the 204 apartment units (25%) to households
qualifying as moderate income under DHCD regulations. These units will be produced pursuant to G.L.
c. 40R, netting the Town a one-time payment of $962,000.00
Historic Buildings
The Owner has committed to saving the Revere Barn and the Rolling Mill.
Financial Analysis
Mr. Jacobs of MHJ Associates concluded that any redevelopment of the Property must include
an apartment component because it is the easiest to finance and construct in today's market. The
townhouse component of 68 units is also feasible in today's market. The 80 units of age restricted
housing are not currently feasible, but may be viable in tomorrow's economy.
In general, Mr. Jacobs finds that the 348 Unit Proposal represents a reasonable amount of
density for the site given the standards governing economic return on investment.
Town Finances
Judi Barrett estimates that the 348 Unit Proposal will generate $840,000-$891,000 in property
taxes each year. She also estimates that between 48 and 65 children can be expected to enroll in
Canton public schools. If the number of school children is at the low end, the project will have a
positive fiscal effect. If the number of school children is at the high end, the fiscal impact will fall slightly
into the negative.
2Source page 3
Downtown Economy
Ms. Barrett estimates that, on an ongoing basis, the 348 Unit Proposal will generate 150 short
term and 178 long term jobs, and result in an estimated $10 million spent on goods and services from
Canton businesses.
Conclusion
The Town must decide whether the 348 Unit Proposal is a good option for the redevelopment of
the Property. If Town officials decide to tentatively endorse this proposal and proceed to a vote, a
zoning amendment and a development agreement still have to be drafted. The inclusion of a Chapter
40R component means that the most likely timetable will be a vote at the Fall 2013 Town Meeting.
3Source page 4
PLYMOUTH RUBBER REDEVELOPMENT
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
TOWN OF CANTON
March 25, 2013
Michael Jacobs
MHJ AssociatesSource page 5
Introduction
I have been asked by Attorney Mark Bobrowski to perform a peer review of the financial
projections prepared by Canton Holdings LLC and make a judgment as to the density needed to
make the project feasible. I have reviewed the three components of the project on the main site:
the 204-unit rental development, the 64-unit townhouse development and the 80-unit age restricted
condominium project. I have excluded the assisted living building across the street since it
requires specialized knowledge to evaluate a product which is an operating business rather than
traditional real estate.
The proponent has supplied a detailed breakdown of projected costs and revenues for the three
projects. Tom Houston has reviewed the projected site costs and I have reviewed the remaining
capital costs and revenues. While the proponent has supplied very detailed estimates that we don’t
typically see at this stage of the development process, I want to emphasize that they are based on
very preliminary plans and are best guesses at this point in time. Both Mr. Houston and I have thus
reviewed costs to make sure they fall into an acceptable range rather than validating pinpoint
accuracy.
While if approved, the redevelopment would not start for several years and would easily take five
years to complete and occupy, I have reviewed costs, sales and rents based on today’s prices.
Trying to predict the state of the local economy over the next several years is much too speculative
to be of value.
In order to evaluate the projections, one must both look at the individual components as well as
the total of all of the costs to make a reasonable judgment. This is particularly true of site-wide
costs such as site remediation, asbestos abatement and demolition which are proportionately
assigned to each project based on the percentage of total units that the component represents.
In speaking with the developer, he intends to phase the project in the following manner: (1) 204-
unit rental component; (2) 64-unit townhouse development; and (3) 80-unit age-restricted
condominium. I will follow that path in providing my analysis.
204-UNIT RENTAL DEVELOPMENT
The proposed rental project consists of six buildings containing 204 one and two bedrooms with a
1/3-2/3 split between them. There is parking for 184 garage spaces under the buildings as well as
surface parking. As part of the first phase of the project, the developer will also rehabilitate the
Revere Rolling Mill and Revere Barn for community use.
My analysis consists of two components: (1) A review of the capital costs; and (2) an analysis of
the proposed rent and operating expenses. Combining the two components enables me to project a
rate of return.
Capital Costs
Typically, the first component of a review is the acquisition cost. However, in the models
submitted, the proponent has omitted the line item because of his belief that it would impact a
1Source page 6
potential lender’s underwriting of the deal. A disbursement schedule supplied by the developer
documents a purchase price of $5,297,880. When applied against all of the units (including the
assisted living), the price per unit is $12,151. This is a more than reasonable price for a rental or
condominium project.
The problem is the high site premiums that must be added to the acquisition cost when evaluating
feasibility. First is the cost of demolition, asbestos abatement and site remediation. Estimates
supplied by consultants to the developer project a cost of $14,192 per unit. While a land value of
$26,000+ would not be an impediment to a project of this magnitude in a strong rental market, the
$23,000 per unit site estimate (confirmed as reasonable by Mr. Houston) is higher than many
larger rental projects than I’ve reviewed.
Most suburban rental developments try to avoid the cost of underground parking since it can add
$20-$25,000 per space. Since the only approach to meet reasonable parking ratios is to include this
amenity, one would expect to find a higher priced building than other comparable projects. While
a $126 per square foot excluding overhead, profit and general conditions seems high, most
projections would typically include a 5% construction contingency. When that is backed out of the
building cost, the base price per square foot drops to a shade under $120 per square foot. This
appears reasonable.
Soft costs of $22,113 appear more than reasonable. While there are some line items that appear
low (design fees, legal), other line items appear cushioned (a combination of construction loan
interest and rent-up losses). On 40B rental projects, state agencies typically look at a standard of
28% of construction cost as reasonable. Soft costs come in at slightly over 10% on this project.
The developer fee and overhead of $1.38 million is very reasonable, representing less than 3% of
total development costs. This is much lower than most projects I review.
Total development costs of $49.8 million or slightly over $244,000 per unit are reasonable. The
developer is assuming $42.5 million of financing which is equivalent to 85% of the total
development cost or approximately a 77% loan to value. The developer is expecting financing
from a life insurance company. While they provide very competitive interest rates, they typically
require loan to values of 70%. With the projected rents and operating expenses contained in the
pro forma, approximately $38.6 million could only be supported.
Operations
The proposed rents fall within the range of comparable projects. The projected one bedroom rent
falls within the achieved rents at the Windsor Woods project. The projected two bedroom rents
range between $1.80 and $1.90 per square foot. The equivalent units at Windsor Woods rent
between $1.56 and $1.97 per square foot. A breakdown of comparables reviewed can be found on
the next page.
2Source page 7
River Windsor Waterfall Norwest Norwood
Village Woods Hills Woods Gardens
1 Bedroom
$1675- $1495- $1460- $1495- $1275-
Rents 1735 1825 1590 1595 1565
Liv Area (Sq. Ft.) 860-894 731-759 682-900 805-849 725-850
2 Bedroom
$2150- $1915- $1845- $1525- $1495-
Rents 2300 2090 3300 1775 1810
Liv Area (Sq. Ft.) 1270-1370 1,171 1,225 1000-1150 1050-1300
W/D in unit x x Some x x
Fitness Ctr x x x x
Pool x x x x
H & HW x
Elevator x
Baths 2 1-2 1-2 1.5 2
The proposed operating expenses appear to be higher than needed in two areas. Property taxes,
which are projected at $1,876 per unit appear to be overestimated by approximately $300 per unit
per year. Replacement reserves that are used to fund capital needs over time are budgeted at
$1,980 per unit per year. This is more typically underwritten in the $250-$325 per unit range.
Based on the developer’s projections, the cash on cash return (cash flow over equity) would be
nearly 11%. The other two measures, Return on Total Cost and Internal Rate of Return are
respectively 6.7% and 16.8%1. Two of the three measures would more than satisfy any developer
taking on this project. When adjustments are made to the operating budget, the returns increase to
16% for the cash on cash return, nearly 7.5% for the return on cost and a 20.6% internal rate of
return. In addition, the project could now support the $42.5 million loan projected in the
developer’s pro forma.
Given the discussion on affordability and the developer’s willingness to include affordable units, I
have reviewed the projections assuming 25% of the apartments are reserved for households
earning no more than 80% of area median income.2 The reduced rents would require an additional
$3.8 million of equity and result in returns of; (1) 9.1% cash on cash, (20) 6.6% ROTC, and (3)
15.8% IRR. While the latter is slightly below the return that many investors would ideally expect,
a 9% cash on cash return would still be attractive to lenders and most investors.
1
Return on Total Cost compares the Net Operating Income (income after vacancies & operating expenses in the first
stabilized year to the total project cost. The Internal Rate of Return examines a series of cash inflows and outflows
over the life of an investment. Like the ROTC, this metric utilizes net operating income in its calculation to exclude
the impact of debt. It assumes the project is sold one year after achieving stabilization.
2
$45,500 for 1 person and $52,000 for two people.
3Source page 8
64-UNIT TOWNHOUSE DEVELOPMENT
The developer is proposing 64 two-bedroom units ranging in size from 1,347 square feet to 1,688
square feet. Suggested prices range from $343,485 ($255 per square foot) to $405,120 for the
largest unit ($240 per square foot).
Capital Costs
Like the rental development, the financial projection excludes the apportioned per unit cost of
$12,151 (slightly less than $778,000). The inclusion of this acquisition cost into the pro forma
would put the project at the minimum level that a construction lender would consider in this
climate.
The construction cost of $115 per square foot is very comparable to other townhouse projects I
have reviewed ($117 per square foot with general conditions included). The site costs are
apportioned based on the percentage of units in the entire project (excluding the assisted living)
and have been deemed reasonable. The common area amenities, like the site costs, are similarly
apportioned. Like the rental project, there does not appear to be a construction contingency
(typically 5% for new construction). If this was incorporated into the pro forma, it would have a
significant impact on the profitability.
On the whole, soft costs seem reasonable with two exceptions. Design fees represent less than 2%
of construction cost, which seems low. On the other hand, developer overhead of $960,000 seems
quite high for a 64 unit project. However, I consider this a result of the developer’s apportionment
process and not something I would necessarily adjust in determining the feasibility of the project.
For example, a significant portion of the overhead could be reallocated to the rental project which
has a very low fee given the size of the proposed development.
Sales
The pricing proposed in the pro forma will place these condominiums at the top of the market.
Over the last year, 19 two-bedroom townhouse condominiums constructed from 1995 to 2012
were sold in Canton. Prices ranged from a low of $230,000 for a 10-year old, 1,215 square foot
unit on Wall Street ($189 per square foot) to $380,000 for a 15-year old 1,933 square foot unit at
the 58-unit Paul Revere Village across from the site ($197 per square foot).
The average sales price for the townhouses was $309,192 and the average living area was 1,715
square feet. This translates into an average price per square foot of $183. This is compared to the
three unit types below:
No. of Price/Sq. Garage
Unit Type Units Living Area Sales Price
Ft. Spaces
2 BR/2.5BA 14 1,347 $343,485 $255 2
2 BR/2.5BA 31 1,606 $393,470 $245 1
2 BR/2.5BA 19 1,688 $405,120 $240 2
4Source page 9
While one would expect a boost in price because this is new construction, that 33 of the 64 units
will have two-car garages, and a unique amenity such as an indoor pool, the proposed standard
level of finishes included in the project description are at a lower level than many of the
comparables. Vinyl flooring and laminate countertops in kitchens and baths are below the finishes
provided in most of the reviewed sales. There is an allowance for kitchen appliances which
appears to indicate the absence of stainless steel appliances which are found in many of the
comparables (see appendix for a breakdown of comparables).
Given a significant increase in pricing for the proposed project over current sales, it appears that
the developer is using prices that he expects to receive when the townhouses are complete (which
will be after the first phase rental development). While the pricing will increase if the economy
continues to improve, construction costs will also rise. In order to compare “apples to apples,” the
snapshot must be taken today to avoid comparing the accuracy of different crystal balls. Looking
at today’s sales prices, I would thus discount the proposed pricing by between 5% and 10%.
How does this modification impact the project? Using the developer’s projections, sales would
exceed costs by nearly 33%. This is substantially above any minimum underwriting criteria a
lender would utilize. Making 5%-6% reductions would decrease the profit to slightly below 26%,
still above the minimum 20% that a construction lender would require. Lowering projected prices
by 10% would allow the project to meet the minimum underwriting profit threshold. At $216-$220
per square foot, these prices would still be higher than virtually any comparably sized
condominium sold in the last year.
If the town wanted to include 10% affordability into this component, the project would only be
clearly feasible if the developer could achieve the pricing that is proposed. A 5% sales adjustment
and 10% affordability on top of that would drop the projected profit slightly below 20%.
80 Active Adult Condominium Flats
The developer is proposing that 80 condominium flats in two buildings would be constructed in
the last phase of the project. 30% or 24 units would be 795 square foot one bedrooms and the
remaining 56 units would have two bedrooms and range in size from 1,191 to 1,330 square feet.
68 parking spaces would be available within the building plus surface parking.
The specific distribution of units is as follows:
Unit Type No. of Living Sales Price Price/Sq.
Units Area Ft.
1BR 1BA 24 795 $222,600 $280
2BR 2BA 8 1,191 $315,615 $265
2BR 2BA 16 1,237 $321,620 $260
2BR 2BA 32 1,330 $332,500 $250
Accepting the developer’s projections, the last component of this redevelopment appears to be
significantly infeasible. Sales are only 9.6% above cost which is well below any cushion that
would be acceptable to a construction lender. There are two other significant problems with the
plan: (1) the age restriction; and (2) the size of the units.
5Source page 10
Many municipal boards that granted permits to 55 and older projects over the last 5 years have
seen developers return with requests to eliminate the age restriction. When one looks at sales of
this product, it is easy to understand why this request is being made.
Over the last year, in Canton and six surrounding communities,3 there were five adult community
sales out of 392 condominium closings. Out 1,959 condominium sales in Norfolk County over that
same period, only 23 were sold in 55 and over communities. None of them were one bedroom
units.
Out of the 23 sales, there were two in elevator buildings: a 798 square foot two bedroom in
Dedham that sold for $310,000 ($263 per square foot) and a 1,258 square foot unit in Wellesley
that sold for $432,000 ($343 per square foot). Those two units plus an 854 square foot Stoughton
unit that sold for $160,000 were the only age-restricted condominiums under 1,759 square feet.
With the exception of the Dedham and Wellesley units, none of the remaining condominiums that
sold for $300,000 or above were less than 1,800 square feet.
While the two-bedroom Dedham sale provides a small glimmer of potential, it is hard to take
comfort with one comparable given the proposed unit sizes and pricing.
CONCLUSION
As you have seen from this report, the first two phases are financially feasible while the age-
restricted component will probably have trouble attracting construction lenders unless the current
trend away from age-restricted ownership housing is reversed. While there will most likely be
different market dynamics five years from now, it is difficult to draw any different conclusions
about the potential success of the 80-unit component.
I believe that the number of units proposed in the rental and townhouse developments are
reasonable to provide a potentially feasible project. If a 30-unit rental building or a 4-unit
townhouse building (assuming a 10% reduction in sales prices) were eliminated from the site plan,
the projects would be difficult to finance.
The strongest component of the planned redevelopment is the rental development. There has been
a large demand for apartments in eastern Massachusetts and there is ample financing available.
While the market has not fully returned for ownership projects, there is a strong indication that it
is going in the right direction as evidenced by a reduction in the Commonwealth’s condominium
inventory. While in September of 2008, there was nearly a ten month supply of condominiums
(9.8), there has been a steady decrease through 2012 and into 2013 that has reduced the inventory
to 4.7 months.
There is still no indication that the market for over 55 housing has returned. While there have been
age-targeted developments geared towards this population that have been successful, age-
restricted housing has not rebounded. If there is no development on this parcel, it is likely that the
estimated $700,000 of Army Corps of Engineer work that is part of the Neponset River Flood
3
Dedham, Milton, Norwood, Randolph, Sharon, Stoughton, Walpole
6Source page 11
Damage Reduction System will not be part of the redevelopment. The town will need to take this
into account as it considers how to address the last phase of the project.
I will be happy to respond to specific questions concerning my analysis and conclusions at the
next public hearing.
7Source page 12
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