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Route 138 Corridor Study (2020)
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CANTON, MA
ROUTE 138
CORRIDOR STUDY
Prepared by
RKG Associates
76 Canal street
Suite 401
Boston, MA 02114
617.847.8912
January 2020
Prepared for MassDevelopmentSource page 2
RKG Associates, Inc. is a multi-disciplinary consulting firm, founded in 1981. We
serve public, private and institutional clients and provide a comprehensive range of
advisory, planning, marketing, and management services throughout the US and
around the world.
We’re proud that the projects we’re involved in are projects that get built –
projects that happen – projects that work.
RKG is headquartered in Alexandria, VA, and has offices in Boston, Atlanta, Dallas,
and Durham, NH.
This report was led by:
Eric Halvorsen, AICP
Vice President and Principal
Ryan Kiracofe
Senior Urban Planner & Real Estate Market Analyst
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This project was funded by MassDevelopment’s Site Readiness Program.
WORKING GROUP
Charlie Aspinwall, Town Administrator
John Ciardi, FIS/ Canton Association of Business and Industry
Chris Connolly, Board of Selectmen
Sonja Grauds, Master Plan Steering Committee
Emilio Mauro, Master Plan Steering Committee, Finance Committee, Economic
Development Committee
David McCarthy, Planning Board and Master Plan Steering Committee
Patricia McDermott, Planning Board, Walk Bike and Hike Committee,
Sustainability Committee
Greg Pando, Zoning Board of Appeals
Laura Smead, Town Planner
Ed Walsh, Building Commissioner
MassDevelopment Project Manager: Christine Madore
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 3
Vision for the Future ............................................................................................................................. 9
Existing Conditions & Market Study ........................................................................................................ 10
Sociodemographics ............................................................................................................................. 15
Economic Indicators ........................................................................................................................... 22
Market & Development Activity ........................................................................................................ 32
Land Use Composition & Zoning Analysis ......................................................................................... 45
Fiscal Impact Analysis................................................................................................................................ 53
Recommendations .................................................................................................................................... 65
Land Use & Zoning..............................................................................................................................68
Transportation & Connectivity ........................................................................................................... 76
Identity & Business Recruitment ....................................................................................................... 83
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INTRODUCTION
PROJECT DESCRIPTION
RKG Associates (RKG) was retained by MassDevelopment, in cooperation with the Town of Canton,
to complete an economic development-focused corridor study for the section of Route 138 between
Randolph Street and the Stoughton town line. This segment of Route 138 is zoned predominantly for
industrial and commercial activity, forming a cluster that has supported thousands of jobs, numerous
retail and service businesses, several large age-restricted and assisted living communities, and other
housing types. While this Corridor plays a major role in supporting Canton’s commercial tax and jobs
base, there is consensus among residents that more could be done to strengthen its position in the
regional market and as an asset for the community.
Cities and towns in the Greater Boston region, in partnership with property owners and developers,
have begun to reexamine aging, single-use industrial, office, and retail assets in suburban locations,
and to consider actions that can make them more competitive with in-demand urban locations closer
to Boston. Local examples like the 3rd Avenue project in Burlington, the Natick Mall in Natick, Legacy
Place in Dedham, Westwood Station in Westwood, MarketStreet in Lynnfield, and Assembly Row in
Somerville offer potential strategies and ideas for how improvements in the Route 138 Corridor might
take root.
3rd Avenue redevelopment in Burlington, MA
Credit: Archer Hotel
Greater Boston’s mixed-use, walkable, and well-connected communities are frequently commanding
higher lease rates, rents, and sale prices compared to its more isolated suburban office, industrial, and
residential buildings. Research by Smart Growth America showed that buildings located in walkable
places with a mix of uses have up to a 150 percent higher valuation over edge suburb locations,
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demonstrating a high level of demand for these types of places. 1 The common thread among each of
the mentioned local examples is the inclusion of multiple real estate products near one another,
creating a place where residents, workers, and visitors can easily walk to accomplish multiple errands.
In determining a potential future pathway for this segment of Route 138, this Study examines the idea
of connected places and diversified real estate products to test the Corridor’s market viability, possible
regulatory changes, aesthetics and wayfinding, and transportation connectivity.
This report is broken down into four primary sections to describe the process, research, findings, and
recommendations for Route 138 in Canton. The first section covers the introduction, vision for the
Corridor, and public process. The second section describes real estate and market conditions in the
Corridor, town, and region. The third section describes the potential fiscal impacts of land use choices
in Canton, and the final section provides a broad set of recommendations for strengthening this
Corridor for the future.
CORRIDOR LOCATION AND STUDY AREA
Route 138 is a two-lane state highway that connects southern Massachusetts from the Rhode Island
border at Tiverton north to the town of Milton, Massachusetts. The portion of Route 138 in Canton
traverses the town’s eastern edge from its border with the town of Milton in the north to its border
with the town of Stoughton in the south. This study examines only the portion of Route 138 from
Randolph Street south to the Stoughton line (Figures 1 and 2), but the context of the larger corridor
and its importance as a regional travel route should not be understated. The Corridor is home to many
of Canton’s largest employers, a variety of retail and service outlets, and hundreds of residential units
that include condominiums, apartments, senior living facilities, and single-family homes.
The Corridor is generally defined by large setbacks, an auto-oriented streetscape, and a variety of
retail, service, office, and flex/industrial spaces fronting the road. There is no true commercial/mixed-
use node or center of gravity along the Corridor; the closest “center” of activity is in Stoughton, just
over the town’s southern border. Many of the Corridor’s largest employers are in single-use office
park-style developments connected to Route 138 by a series of internal roadways.
The portion of Route 138 in this study area is comprised of a variety of zoning districts, although
roughly 76 percent of its land is classified as either Limited Industrial or Limited Industrial B. Twelve
percent of the Study Corridor’s land is dedicated for Single Residence B uses, and a combination of
Business, Industrial, Park/Open Space, and a small amount Single Residence AA makes up the
remaining 12 percent.
1 The WalkUP Wake-Up Call. GW University School of Business, LOCUS, Smart Growth America. 2015
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Figure 1: Route 138 Study Corridor in Canton
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Figure 1: Route 138 Study Corridor in Canton
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Figure 2: Route 138 Study Corridor in Canton
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PUBLIC PROCESS AND FEEDBACK
A multi-faceted engagement process was used throughout the Study to inform the analysis, develop
a vision, and guide recommendations. During the study, residents, business owners and employees,
and Town staff and officials provided their own unique perspectives on the Corridor. The following
engagement methods were utilized to solicit input along the way:
Route 138 Working Group – a Working Group was established by the Town to engage with
RKG over the six-month planning process to provide feedback and insight. The Working
Group was comprised of residents, Town staff, business leaders, and MassDevelopment staff.
The group met six times to review materials provided by RKG and assist with public meeting
design, facilitation, and preparation.
Stakeholder Interviews – to gain additional insight on the local market, regulatory conditions,
business conditions, and employee/employer needs, RKG conducted a series of in-person and
phone interviews with local brokers, business owners, boards and committees, and Town
staff.
Public Meetings – two public meetings were held to offer the general public opportunities to
engage directly with the consultants and Town staff. The first meeting in July 2019 shared the
results of the market and zoning analysis and solicited feedback on residents’ vision for the
Corridor and where they would like to see different types of development in the future. The
second meeting, held in October 2019, presented the refined Corridor vision,
recommendations, and fiscal impact analysis.
Online Surveys – two surveys were prepared and distributed, one following each public
meeting. These provided opportunities for input for those unable to attend in person. The
surveys mimicked the questions and activities from each public meeting. Surveys provided
close to 200 additional responses throughout the process.
Project Website and Social Media – all materials from the Working Group sessions and public
meetings were posted by Town staff to the Route 138 Corridor Study Website. Posts were also
made to the Town’s social media outlets to notify residents of upcoming public meetings and
surveys.
PUBLIC PRIORITIES
In addition to providing the basis for the vision statement, there were several clear priorities which
were derived from the two public meetings and informed the recommendations in this study. These
priorities included:
Diversify Uses – Residents, employees, and business owners in the Corridor noted the
important role restaurants, retail, and housing play in making Route 138 an attractive
place to live, work, open a business, and attract talent. Currently, there are few sit-down
dining options or locations where employers can hold business lunches or take clients to
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dinner. Employers also noted affordable housing is important to their employees as many
workers are traveling increasing distances to find affordable housing, creating higher
transportation costs and squeezing their budgets. Strategic locations for new commercial
and residential development could bring more spending power to the Corridor, increase
tax receipts, and create a more regionally-competitive location for business attraction.
Improve Traffic Flow and Safety – The Route 138 Corridor processes a high volume of
vehicular traffic, serving as a major north-south connector to I-93/95 and up to the City of
Boston. Shifts from two to four lanes, elevation changes, lack of access management, and
general traffic volumes make morning and evening commutes long. Participants stated
that traffic on Route 138 presents a major risk to the Corridor’s businesses and ability to
attract new jobs to the area.
Connect the Corridor – Recognizing that more than just vehicles traverse the Corridor,
residents expressed a desire to improve walking, cycling, and transit connections both
within the study area and from surrounding areas. This should include sidewalks along
Route 138 and along secondary roadways, a mix of on- and off-street bicycle facilities, and
transit or shuttle connections to help workers access jobs and amenities in the area.
Enhanced bicycle and pedestrian infrastructure present opportunities to address the
Corridor’s lack of east-west connectivity.
Improve Aesthetics along the Corridor – The auto-oriented zoning that guided
development along the Corridor has created single-use buildings with parking in the
front, deep setbacks from Route 138 and secondary roadways, large highway-oriented
signage, and a relative lack of design standards and landscaping. Residents discussed each
of these issues and are interested in ways that these characteristics could be addressed
over time.
Ensure the Ongoing Attraction and Retention of Businesses – The Route 138 Corridor
provides 57 percent of the town’s overall commercial and industrial tax base, directly
tying the Corridor’s long-term viability to the Town’s long-term financial position.
Residents expressed a desire to continue supporting the businesses that are here today
and continuing to improve the Corridor in ways that would make it more attractive to
new businesses in the future.
An input summary from Public Meeting 1 is included in the Appendix of this report.
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VISION FOR THE FUTURE
Based upon feedback from the public meetings and online surveys, a vision statement was developed
to help guide the future direction of this segment of Route 138. The focus of the vision was to recognize
the importance of this Corridor both locally and regionally, and to briefly describe ways in which it
should be enhanced over time.
The Route 138 Corridor in Canton will continue to thrive and grow
as a significant contributor to the town’s commercial and industrial
tax base, serving as a regional employment hub.
Strategic partnerships in transportation, open space, zoning
changes, and a variety of development types will ensure that the
Corridor offers a safe, vibrant, and appealing environment for all
users.
Town staff worked closely with the Master Plan Steering Committee for the ongoing town-wide
Master Plan to create synergies between these two plans and avoid any conflicting statements.
The following chapters describe in detail the real estate and market analysis, fiscal impact analysis,
and recommendations for how the Corridor could be changed and improved over time.
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EXISTING CONDITIONS &
MARKET ANALYSIS
INTRODUCTION & PURPOSE
This first written deliverable consists of an analysis of existing demographic and economic conditions
for Canton and adjacent cities and towns, and the market conditions for a variety of uses in the town
and specifically within the Corridor. It includes an analysis of broad demographic and economic
trends, a review of real estate development trends in Canton, and summaries of the potential markets
for different types of residential and commercial in the Corridor.
KEY FINDINGS
Canton’s population, while still smaller than most of its neighbors, is growing faster than the
state’s or the county’s. Between 2010 and 2017, Canton’s population grew by 5.9 percent to an
estimated 22,829 residents. Norfolk County and the state of Massachusetts grew by 3.5 percent and
3.7 percent, respectively.
Small households are driving Canton’s growth – especially young professionals and post-
retirement, over-65-year-olds. The number of one-person households grew by 17 percent from 2010
to 2017, accounting for well over half of Canton’s net gain in households during that period. The
town’s strong growth in 25- to 34-year-old residents (+33 percent) is unique among Boston suburbs;
less unique is its growth in over-65 residents (+21 percent).
Canton’s strong housing market is being driven in part by homebuyers choosing its relative
affordability versus higher-priced neighbors. Despite five-year price appreciation of nearly 19
percent for single-family homes, Canton’s housing looks increasingly affordable versus neighbors like
Milton, whose median single-family sale price has reached $686,000. Small households seeking
homeownership opportunities are viewing Canton as a “cheapest, closest” alternative that provides
high quality of life and strong access to Boston and Cambridge.
Nine in ten working Canton residents commute to jobs out of town. This is high by suburban Boston
standards, even as Canton is home to a large employment base. Canton’s working residents and its
in-town workers are almost two mutually exclusive groups, suggesting an historic mismatch between
the jobs on offer and the earning potential of the town’s residents. By better matching good-paying
jobs to suitable, diversely-priced housing in Canton, the town may reap economic benefits while
reducing traffic.
Canton is unique among Boston suburbs for its high level of economic activity – and the center of
economic value is the Route 138 Corridor. Unlike most of its neighbors, Canton has a nearly one-to-
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one ratio of residents to jobs. This provides a significant boost to the local tax base, and takes tax
burden off of homeowners. Over 50 percent of Canton’s commercial tax receipts come from the Route
138 Corridor study area.
The Corridor has led the way in Canton’s expansion into higher-paying, knowledge economy jobs,
while also home to dozens of “legacy” industries and manufacturers. In addition to light
manufacturers, distributors, specialty contractors, and dozens of small businesses, the Corridor is
increasingly home to large firms that engage in cutting-edge research, “smart” and green technologies,
and life sciences innovation. These firms compete for talent with high-tech clusters in Boston and
Cambridge.
Canton’s largest employment sectors – Construction-related jobs and Professional, Scientific, and
Technical Services – reflect a unique and growing cluster of firms that tie innovation to buildings
and civil engineering. Companies including Siemens, Johnson Controls, UL, and others work on
technologies related to “smart building” practices and safety systems.
The Corridor’s top employment categories are projected to continue growing, potentially creating
demand for new and reinvented commercial space. The Corridor is fortunate to have large and
growing employment in sectors that are typically less “relocatable” than some others. State projections
for Canton’s growth suggest that Construction-related and Professional, Scientific, and Technical
Services employment will continue to expand, meaning that new and/or existing firms may be seeking
new real estate opportunities in the decade to come.
While most of the Corridor’s commercial real estate is aging and in need of reinvestment to remain
competitive, flexible office/industrial space is in demand and is outperforming traditional office
leasing. The changing preferences of today’s office worker have made suburban, single-use office
properties less competitive – especially older ones – than in previous years. Traditionally lower-value
flex space (with fewer finishes, higher ceilings, and room for light manufacturing or distribution tasks)
has seen greater interest within the Corridor, and has asking rent levels approaching those for basic
office space.
A lack of housing options and retail/restaurant amenities within the Corridor may pose a risk to
long-term business attraction and retention efforts. Multiple businesses reported operating private
shuttles to bring workers in from communities with more diverse housing inventories. Others stated
that it would be difficult to attract firms from more dynamic, mixed-use environments like New York
City or Kendall Square without greater investment in retail and dining establishments within the
corridor.
Zoning restrictions may be limiting the Corridor’s ability to provide housing, retail, and services
that businesses desire and that may reduce congestion-causing car trips. The corridor’s relative lack
of housing options and generally spread-out landscape is a byproduct of its zoning. If the town
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decides that creating a greater mix of uses is in its best interests, zoning restrictions will likely need to
be relaxed and clarified.
REGIONAL CONTEXT
Canton is situated in Norfolk County,
Figure 3: Canton, Norfolk Cty. within Mass.
approximately 15 miles southwest of
Downtown Boston. A mostly suburban
landscape, Canton is bordered by eight
diverse municipalities that range from
tiny Westwood (population just over
16,000) to the City of Boston itself. As one
of Metro Boston’s more centrally-located
suburbs, Canton’s local economy has
shared in much of Boston’s success over
recent decades. Boston’s rise as an
international center of research and
technology, particularly within the life
sciences, has led to opportunities for municipalities like Canton to offer lower-cost options for firms
seeking proximity to talent and resources in Boston and adjacent urban job centers like Cambridge
and Somerville.
While many Boston suburbs are home to residents that work in the urban core, some cities and towns
have actually shared in the region’s economic growth as home to thousands of jobs of their own.
Unlike several of its neighboring communities, Canton is an economic center in its own right. The
town’s residents to jobs ratio is nearly an even 1-to-1. In this way, Canton often has more in common
with the cities and towns that comprise the business-heavy Metro South/West Workforce
Development Area 2 than it does the generally less business-oriented municipalities of Norfolk County
(see Figures 4 and 5). This study includes figures and projections for both regional geographies in its
Economic Indicators section.
2 EOLWD Workforce Development Area designations
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Figure 4: Canton within Norfolk County
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Figure 5: Canton within Metro South/West Workforce Development Area
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SOCIODEMOGRAPHICS
POPULATION
In 2017, the population of Canton
Table 1: Population Trends, 2010-2017
was estimated to be 22,829
'10 - '17
people, a 5.9 percent increase 2010 2017 Growth
since the 2010 Census (Table 1). Canton 21,561 22,829 + 5.9%
This growth rate was faster than
Milton 27,003 27,527 + 1.9%
that of Norfolk County or the
Norwood 28,602 29,121 + 1.8%
state of Massachusetts. The
Stoughton 26,962 28,338 + 5.1%
neighboring municipalities of
Westwood 14,618 15,597 + 6.7%
Milton, Norwood, and Stoughton
grew more slowly, while smaller Norfolk County 670,850 694,389 + 3.5%
Westwood grew its population
Massachusetts 6,547,629 6,789,319 + 3.7%
by 6.7 percent.
Sources: US Census 2010 and ACS 5-Year Estimates 2013-2017; RKG Associates
Canton’s population growth has been primarily driven by two age cohorts: residents between the ages
of 25 and 34, and those over the age of 65 (Table 2). From 2010 to 2017, Canton’s number of 25- to 34-
year-old residents grew by 33 percent, over three times the growth rate for that age cohort in Norfolk
County as a whole. Much of this growth may be due to Canton’s relatively affordable opportunities
for homeownership, which previously had been in reach for young professionals seeking options
closer to employment centers in Boston and Cambridge. As covered in the Housing Market section of
this report, rapidly rising housing costs in Milton and similar communities may have made Canton
the next “cheapest, closest” option for prospective homebuyers looking for access into Boston and a
high local quality of life.
Table 2: Population Growth by Age Cohort, 2010 to 2017
Canton Norfolk County
2010 2017 2010-2017 2010 2017 2010-2017
Population Population % Change Population Population % Change
Total Population 21,561 22,829 + 5.9% 664,900 694,389 + 3.5%
19 and Under 5,441 5,607 + 3.1% 167,642 167,016 (0.4%)
20 to 24 982 936 (4.7%) 38,970 42,157 + 8.2%
25 to 34 2,209 2,942 + 33.2% 78,983 87,213 + 10.4%
35 to 54 6,515 6,542 + 0.4% 203,328 192,707 (5.2%)
55 to 64 2,795 2,801 + 0.2% 84,623 94,423 + 11.6%
65 and over 3,299 4,001 + 21.3% 91,354 110,873 + 21.4%
Sources: US Census Bureau, Census 2010 and American Community Survey, 2013-2017 5-Year Estimates; RKG Associates
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While Canton’s population between 35 and 65 years of age was virtually flat between 2010 and 2017,
its number of over-65 residents grew by 21 percent. This trend is consistent with other suburban
communities in the region and across the country; Norfolk County’s over-65 population has grown at
roughly the same rate since 2010, 21 percent.
Projections from the University of Massachusetts’ Donahue Institute estimate that total population
growth will slow substantially across most Boston suburbs in the years until 2035. In Canton, growth
may slow from an estimated 5.3 percent between 2015 and 2020 to 4.4 percent from 2020 to 2025, and
3.8 percent in the following five years. 3 The state as a whole may see a similar slowdown in population
growth, projected to reach just 2.2 percent from 2020 to 2025.
Table 3: Canton’s Projected Population Growth by Age Cohort
Estimated Estimated Projected Projected
2010 to 2017 2015 to 2020* 2020 to 2025 2025 to 2030
Total Population + 5.9% + 5.3% + 4.4% + 3.8%
19 and Under + 3.1% + 0.4% (3.9%) (1.1%)
20 to 24 (4.7%) + 7.2% 14.5% -13.1%
25 to 34 + 33.2% + 2.4% 5.9% 10.9%
35 to 54 + 0.4% + 3.7% 2.4% 3.7%
55 to 64 + 0.2% + 13.4% 3.7% -5.6%
65 and over + 21.3% + 15.4% 14.5% 14.7%
*2015-2020 estimates included in order to establish comparable 5-year period for projections
Sources: US Census, ACS 5-Year Estimates 2013-20217; UMass Donahue Institute Population Estimates Program; RKG
Associates
Much of the future population growth both in Canton and in the region is expected to occur in the 65
and older cohort, with Canton’s over-65 population projected to grow by more than 15 percent from
2015 to 2020 and a further 14 percent from 2020 to 2025.
Canton, like the state, county, and many of its neighboring communities, is becoming more diverse in
terms of race and ethnicities despite still being majority white (Table 4). In 2017, 80 percent of Canton’s
residents were non-Hispanic white, down from 83 percent in 2010 but still a larger percentage than
seen in the state, county, and all surrounding municipalities except Westwood (88 percent). Of the
net 1,268 residents gained between 2010 and 2017 in Canton, just 31 percent were non-Hispanic white;
the remainder were comprised mostly of Hispanic/Latino (29 percent) and Asian (26 percent)
newcomers. Between 2010 and 2017, residents of Asian descent surpassed black residents to become
the largest minority group in Canton, now comprising 7.2 percent of the population.
3 UMass Donahue Institute Population Estimates Program
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Table 4: Population Growth by Race, 2010 to 2017
Canton Norfolk County
2017 2017 2010-2017 2017 2017 2010-2017
Population % Share % Change Population % Share % Change
Total Population 22,829 100% + 5.9% 694,389 100% + 3.5%
White (Non-Hispanic) 18,339 80.3% + 2.2% 532,276 76.7% (1.2%)
Black 1,383 6.1% + 6.3% 43,719 6.3% + 20.3%
Asian 1,637 7.2% + 24.8% 71,819 10.3% + 24.6%
Latino/Hispanic 963 4.2% + 61.6% 28,900 4.2% + 31.3%
Mixed-Race & All Other 507 2.2% + 26.4% 17,675 2.5% + 9.6%
Sources: US Census Bureau, Census 2010 and American Community Survey, 2013-2017 5-Year Estimates; RKG Associates
HOUSING & HOUSEHOLDS
A growing population of young professionals, young families, and individuals past typical retirement
age has also affected what the average Canton household looks like. Individuals in these age cohorts
tend to live in smaller households, either as individuals, couples, small families, or with a non-family
roommate. In Canton, an influx of 25- to 34-year-olds and a growing over-65 population has led to a
large increase in the number of small households, particularly one-person households (Table 5). Of
the nearly 650 net new households added in Canton between 2010 and 2017, almost 60 percent were
individuals living alone. Canton’s 16.5 percent growth in one-person households contrasts strongly
with Norfolk County’s slight decrease and the state’s virtually flat one-person household count.
Table 5: Household Growth by Size, 2010 to 2017
Canton Norfolk County Massachusetts
2010 2017 2010-2017 2010-2017 2010-2017
Households Households % Change % Change % Change
Total Households 8,378 9,026 + 7.7% + 1.7% + 1.5%
1-person 2,261 2,635 + 16.5% (0.3%) + 0.5%
2-person 2,578 2,737 + 6.2% + 4.5% + 4.8%
3-person 1,433 1,547 + 8.0% + 0.8% + 3.1%
4-person 1,323 1,497 + 13.2% + 5.1% + 2.0%
5-person and greater 783 610 (22.1%) (5.3% (10.4%)
Sources: US Census Bureau, Census 2010 and American Community Survey, 2013-2017 5-Year Estimates; RKG Associates
While Canton’s ongoing increase in small households appears to make it an outlier among Boston
suburbs, local trends do reflect more regional and national changes in household composition.
Nationwide demographic changes have tended to result in a rapidly growing number of households,
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typically outpacing population growth itself. This is due in large part to citizens choosing to live in
smaller households, often delaying “household formation” by marrying and/or having children later
in life, or remaining single.
Rare among Boston suburbs, Canton’s creation of new housing units largely kept pace with its growth
in households from 2010 to 2017, adding approximately 650 units according to Census Bureau
estimates. A large proportion of those additional housing units were, however, single-family
ownership units – a housing typology that may play a limited role in Canton’s future development as
space for large-lot, single-use housing becomes scarcer. Still, the addition of housing units in line with
overall household growth has likely played a role in keeping Canton relatively affordable for
prospective buyers, while neighboring Milton has seen prices escalate substantially during seven
years in which its housing stock has been essentially unchanged. 4
Canton’s new homeowners have primarily purchased new or vacant single-family detached homes
since 2010, with limited changes to the condominium supply (although ongoing construction may
change this dynamic). This follows a period from 2003 to 2008 in which several hundred multi-family
units were permitted in Canton. 5 Some new market rate apartments have come online since 2010,
notably the 196-unit Canton portion of the Prynne Hills development. Still, unlike in most
communities that have experienced an influx of small households (particularly young professionals
and retired residents), rental housing is today playing a decreased role in Canton’s stock versus 2010.
In 2010, Canton’s occupied housing stock was comprised of roughly 74 percent owner-occupied units
and 26 percent renter-occupied units. In 2017, the split had grown to 77 percent owner-occupied and
just 23 percent renter-occupied units (Table 6). Many Boston area municipalities have seen a shift
towards renter-occupied housing in recent years, reflecting a prioritization of access to amenities,
transportation, and jobs over homeownership opportunities. Canton’s shift, on the other hand,
suggests that newcomer households may be coming to Canton for a very specific reason: relatively
affordable homeownership opportunities that enjoy good enough access into Boston’s job centers. The
Housing Market section of this report presents median home sale prices for Canton and several
neighboring communities, and confirms that Milton’s rapidly increasing prices may be causing some
prospective homebuyers to shift their search to Canton – especially as Milton has added relatively
little housing since 2010. Further reflecting Canton’s strong housing market, the town has a lower
estimated residential vacancy rate than any of its neighbors, at just 2.5 percent in 2017 – roughly half
the Norfolk County vacancy rate of 4.9 percent.
Canton’s shift towards an even more owner-occupied community may reflect consumer demand for
ownership units, but also may be a product of zoning restrictions. As covered in the Zoning section
of this report in greater detail, the construction of multi-family housing, whether apartments or
condominiums, is restricted to a degree throughout Canton’s zoning code. Most multi-family units
4 US Census Bureau, Census 2010 Table QTH2 and American Community Surveys 2013-2017 Table B25003
5 Canton Housing Action Plan, 2015
18Source page 20
approved in recent years have been either in overlay districts or via special permits, which can add an
additional level of complexity and uncertainty to an already expensive development process. Within
the Study Corridor and adjacent areas, stakeholders told RKG staff that they felt multi-family housing
was the most appropriate land use in certain spaces, but was rendered infeasible due to zoning that
makes single-family, detached homes the easiest to develop. “A new, sprawling subdivision [near the
Corridor] is probably a huge waste and not a great use of space… but there’s no alternative in the
zoning now,” said one interview subject.
Table 6: Housing Characteristics, 2010-2017
Canton Norfolk County
Census Estimate '10 - '17 Census Estimate '10 - '17
2010 2017 Growth 2010 2017 Growth
Total Housing Units 8,762 9,257 + 495 270,359 275,925 + 5,566
Occupied Units 8,378 9,026 + 648 257,914 262,324 +4,410
Owner-Occupied Units (% of occ.) 73.8% 77.3% + 3.5% 69.2% 69.3% + 0.1%
Renter-Occupied Units (% of occ.) 26.2% 22.7% (3.5%) 30.8% 30.7% (0.1%)
Vacant Units 4.4% 2.5% (1.9%) 4.6% 4.9% + 0.3%
Median HH Value $457,400 $460,200 + $2,800 $408,100 $433,000 + $24,900
Sources: US Census Bureau, Census 2010 & American Community Surveys, 2006-2010 & 2013-2017 5-Year Estimates; RKG
Associates
INCOME
The median household income of Canton residents grew by just 7.7 percent from 2010 to 2017, less
than half the growth rate of the state, county, or any of its neighboring municipalities (Table 7).
Reaching a median of $96,583 in 2017, Canton’s incomes remained higher than the Norfolk County
median, while losing ground against higher-income neighbors Milton ($126,000, +29.3 percent since
2010) and Westwood ($145,799, +27.6 percent since 2010). Several factors are likely causing Canton’s
relatively low growth rate – income growth that fell short of estimated inflation, signifying a decline
in real incomes. Canton’s recent influx of young professionals and small families – groups seeking
affordability early in their careers – have likely offset income gains among the town’s highest-earning
households. Other high-income municipalities, like Milton and Westwood, have proven less
accessible to new residents unless they themselves are high earners. A lack of new housing production
in those municipalities has likely exacerbated this trend; Canton added 2.4 times as many new
residents as Milton did from 2010 to 2017, despite having a smaller population.
These middle-income households, many of whom have been drawn to Canton by its balance of
housing affordability, access, and quality of life, have likely been the driving force behind much of the
town’s real estate market growth. Canton’s affordability is a matter of perspective, tied to household
19Source page 21
income. For workers with middle- or high-paying jobs in Boston or Cambridge, Canton appears to
deliver tremendous value versus more centrally-located communities. For workers that hold lower-
paying administrative or blue-collar jobs – like many of those in the Study Corridor – Canton’s
housing options may make it seem out of reach. For value-conscious households up and down the
income scale, the preservation and amplification of Canton’s housing affordability will be key to the
town’s continued economic growth. This will require creative solutions that add a diverse mix of
housing options in Canton’s well-connected spaces.
Table 7: Median Household Income Trends, 2010-2017
Estimated Estimated '10 - '17
Growth
2010 2017
Canton $89,705 $96,583 + 7.7%
Milton $97,421 $126,000 + 29.3%
Norwood $72,472 $87,516 + 20.8%
Stoughton $67,175 $78,343 + 16.6%
Westwood $114,250 $145,799 + 27.6%
Norfolk County $81,027 $95,668 + 18.1%
Massachusetts $64,059 $74,167 + 15.0%
Sources: UMass Donahue Institute Population Estimates Program; RKG Associates
Comparing median household income growth of residents with the average wage growth of Canton
employees highlights an ongoing shift in the town’s employment mix. As shown in the Wages section
of this report, Canton’s residents have generally had very little overlap with people who hold jobs in
the town; they historically have been two mutually exclusive groups, with nine in ten working Canton
residents commuting outside the town for work. Traditionally, Canton residents have held higher-
paying jobs in markets like Boston and Cambridge, while many Canton-based jobs were filled by
lower-earning workers from places like Brockton, Taunton, Fall River, and lower-income areas of the
city of Boston. The addition of higher-earning, “knowledge economy” positions in Canton has helped
to close this historic earnings gap; the average Canton wage grew 21 percent from 2010 to 2017. 6
Despite the increasing availability of better-paying local jobs, however, there is limited evidence of an
increased number of people that both work and live in Canton. This may be due to a continued
mismatch between housing opportunities and the jobs on offer.
Changes in Canton’s distribution of household incomes further supports this theory. While both
Canton and Norfolk County saw large increases in the percentage of households earning more than
$100,000 per year, the county saw its share of every other income cohort decrease – suggesting that
growth was mostly driven by the same households earning more in 2017 than they did in 2010. In
6 Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development ES-202 Report; RKG Associates
20Source page 22
Canton, however, the share of
Figure 6: Income Cohorts, 2010-2017
middle-earning households,
between $50,000 and $74,999
per year, increased from 11 100%
percent to 16 percent. While
80% 43% 40%
some of this group is likely 49% 48%
comprised of households that $100,000 +
60%
moved up from lower-earning 14% $75,000 - $100,000
16% 12%
11%
cohorts over the years from 40%
11% 16% $50,000 - $74,999
16% 14%
2010 to 2017, the majority were $25,000 - $49,999
20% 16% 16% 13%
likely middle-income 11% $0 - $24,999
newcomers, perhaps seeking 15% 12% 15% 13%
0%
affordable homeownership 2010 2017 2010 2017
opportunities. CANTON NORFOLK COUNTY
Sources: US Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates 2013-2017; RKG Associates
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
Canton continues to be one of Metro Boston’s best-educated communities. The town’s share of
working-age residents with a bachelor’s degree or higher reached 47 percent in 2017. Canton’s share
of college degree-holders grew at a faster rate than Norfolk County’s from 2010 to 2017, reflecting an
influx of well-educated newcomers as well as a statewide trend towards higher graduation rates.
Meanwhile, the share of working-age residents without a high school degree fell to 3.9 percent, less
than half the state’s share, 9.7 percent.
Table 8: Educational Attainment, 2010-2017
Canton Norfolk County
2017 2017 2010-2017 2017 2017 2010-2017
% Share Population* % Change % Share Population % Change
Total Working-Age Population 100% 14,878 + 9.5% 100% 29,749 + 6.4%
Less than High school 4% 576 (16.3%) 7% 29,749 (5.6%)
High school or GED 23% 3,457 (16.2%) 23% 97,264 (7.0%)
Some College/Associate Degree 24% 3,617 + 3.0% 23% 103,430 (0.3%)
Bachelor’s Degree 29% 4,276 + 20.7% 27% 138,379 + 14.4%
Master’s Degree and above 18% 2,643 + 37.2% 18% 99,980 + 20.6%
*“Working age population” over age of 25
Sources: US Census Bureau American Community Survey, 2012-2016 5-Year Estimates; RKG Associates
21Source page 23
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
The following section presents selected trends in employment, business establishments, commuting
inflows and outflows, and average wages for Canton, Norfolk County, and Canton’s Workforce
Development Area (WDA), the Metro South/West WDA. The town’s WDA designation is defined by
the Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development. Several of Canton’s most
immediate geographic neighbors are not part of Canton’s WDA, including Milton, Randolph,
Stoughton and others. The Metro South/West WDA’s data is included in this report due to its
municipalities’ numerous commonalities with Canton’s employment base, including a strong
presence of Health Care, Professional & Technical Services, and Manufacturing jobs. These sectors
play a smaller role in the Norfolk County employment base, which has a smaller jobs-to-residents
ratio.
EMPLOYMENT
Canton added an estimated 2,233 jobs between 2010 and 2017, for overall employment growth of 10.9
percent. This growth rate was broadly in line with the Metro South/West WDA’s 11.6 percent
employment growth rate, and slightly further behind Norfolk County’s 12.3 percent growth (albeit
from a smaller base).
No single industry sector dominates Canton’s employment base, which gives the town a level of
economic diversity that may help it to weather future economic downturns better than other
communities. The largest employment sectors are Construction, Wholesale Trade, and Management
of Companies, each of which comprises over 10 percent of Canton’s overall employment.
Canton’s prevalence of jobs classified within the Construction industry is highly unique within
Greater Boston. No other municipality within the WDA was estimated to have Construction as its
largest employment category. Some cities and towns, like Milton, have seen strong growth in
Construction sector employment, largely driven by Metro Boston’s strong real estate market and a
subsequent barrage of hiring by contractors and building firms. Canton’s Construction sector,
however, is comprised of more than just traditional construction labor and contractors, which account
for as few as 333 of the sector’s 3,000-plus local jobs, according to one estimate. 7 Nearly four in every
five jobs classified in the Construction sector are within firms that serve the building and civil
engineering industries, as opposed to actually doing construction work. Many of Canton’s
construction sector firms work in innovative, high-tech capacities to create smart building
technologies, advanced security systems, and products on the leading age of sustainable engineering.
7 EMSI Industry Tables, ZIP Code Level, 2019
22Source page 24
Table 9: Jobs by Selected Sectors, 2010-2017
Canton Metro South / West WDA Norfolk County
2010 2017 2010 2017 2010 2017
% Chg. % Chg. % Chg.
Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs
All Industries 20,502 22,735 + 11% 522,012 582,675 + 12% 313,615 352,138 + 12%
Construction 2,103 3,012 + 43% 19,419 26,507 + 37% 15,661 21,188 + 35%
Wholesale Trade 2,858 2,888 + 1% 27,197 25,685 (6%) 16,760 17,534 + 5%
Management of
1,913 2,455 + 28% 22,739 24,327 + 7% 9,070 9,980 + 10%
Companies
Manufacturing 1,938 1,930 0% 49,214 46,761 (5%) 21,465 20,436 (5%)
Finance & Insurance 1,822 1,836 + 1% 20,180 20,370 + 1% 22,947 23,133 + 1%
Health Care & Social
1,533 1,824 + 19% 61,129 74,476 + 22% 43,412 53,861 + 24%
Assistance
Prof. & Technical
1,160 1,773 + 53% 62,401 74,536 + 19% 20,497 23,426 + 14%
Services
Administrative
1,119 1,166 + 4% 30,068 35,676 + 19% 14,988 20,761 + 39%
Services
Educational Services 1,030 1,018 (1%) 54,682 59,666 + 9% 28,397 30,886 + 9%
Retail 987 950 (4%) 54,908 58,191 + 6% 40,325 43,134 + 7%
Information 1,141 902 (21%) 24,174 27,453 + 14% 10,700 11,155 + 4%
Accommodation &
823 810 (2%) 35,836 40,575 + 13% 24,691 29,369 + 19%
Food Services
Other Services 630 680 + 8% 16,450 17,855 + 9% 14,313 12,187 (15%)
Public Administration 395 470 + 19% 15,216 16,058 + 6% 9,366 9,945 + 6%
Arts, Entertainment
366 468 + 28% 10,510 13,806 + 31% 6,913 9,101 + 32%
& Recreation
Transport. &
542 305 (44%) 9,194 10,001 + 9% 7,876 8,641 + 10%
Warehousing
Real Estate 118 247 + 109% 6,690 7,954 + 19% 5,379 6,165 + 15%
Sources: Massachusetts Executive Office of Workforce and Labor Development, ES-202 Report; RKG Associates
For example, the Canton facility of Munich-based conglomerate Siemens (85 John Road) develops
“smart,” adaptive building technologies related to fire and security. Firms like Siemens have led the
way in the Construction sector’s 43 percent employment growth in Canton since 2010, as well as in
the 53 percent growth in the Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services category. Canton added
an estimated 2,233 jobs overall from 2010 to 2017, over 1,500 of which were in these two high-
performing sectors alone.
These new roles have played a significant part in shifting Canton’s job base from one of mostly legacy,
low-tech occupations to a far more mixed environment, in which opportunities exist for roles at nearly
every pay grade. Strong wage growth, led by these new jobs, has helped close the historic gap between
Canton’s lower-earning workers and higher-earning, out-commuting residents. Firms like Siemens
and Organogenesis, many of which are based within the Route 138 Corridor itself, are competing for
talent with Metro Boston’s high-tech clusters in Kendall Square, the Seaport District, and others. It
will be in the Town’s best interest to help the Route 138 technology cluster to evolve in order to remain
23Source page 25
competitive – especially as worker preferences are rapidly shifting away from single-use, suburban
office park developments.
LOCATION QUOTIENTS
Location quotient analysis is a method of comparing a local economy’s employment strengths and
weaknesses relative to its larger economic region – in this analysis, the Metro South/West WDA. While
a location quotient of 0.8 to 1.2 indicates sector-specific employment that is roughly in line with the
larger region, a quotient over 1.2 suggests that a given industry sector is an area of strength. Likewise,
a quotient less than 0.8 would indicate that Canton is relatively under-developed in a specific
employment sector.
As shown in Table 10, Canton enjoys strong employment relative to the broader WDA in a number of
sectors, notably in Construction, Wholesale Trade, Management of Companies, and Finance &
Insurance. While this data may suggest that Canton’s economy already has a disproportionately large
number of jobs in Construction and other industries relative to the town’s overall economy, their
relative strengths may also suggest opportunities for further enhancement. Canton may look to
continue growing its innovative Construction suppliers cluster, for example, as part of an effort to
establish itself as the center of smart building technology in Massachusetts.
Wholesale Trade, despite posting virtually no net growth in employment from 2010 to 2017, remains
a competitive sector in Canton. Steady employment figures at large Canton-based firms like DXL
Group and growth in other firms have helped to cancel out the over 800 jobs that left with Reebok’s
move to Boston in 2017. 8 Separately, management positions at Dunkin Brands, Compushare, and
others have made Canton one of the WDA’s largest clusters of corporate headquarters and operations.
Finance and Insurance remains an important driver of Canton’s economy, despite little net job growth
since 2010. Several of the largest local employers in finance and insurance are located in the Corridor.
Large transactional service firm FIS (10 Dan Road) employs roughly 325 workers that handle online
and printed payment processing tasks. The Bank of Canton, one of the 25 oldest financial institutions
in the country, is headquartered at 490 Turnpike Street. 9
Health Care, one of the Boston region’s greatest economic strengths, is not a major employment sector
in Canton. The town’s 2017 location quotient of 0.63 indicates that the industry plays a much smaller
role in Canton’s economy than it does in the rest of the WDA. Interviews with stakeholders suggested
that hospitals, clinics, and physicians’ offices just outside of Canton in neighboring towns help to meet
much of the community’s demand for medical services. Canton’s Manufacturing sector, despite
employing nearly 2,000 workers, is roughly average-sized versus the WDA as a whole.
8 Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development, ES-202 Report; RKG Associates.
9 www.thebankofcanton.com
24Source page 26
Table 10: Location Quotients vs. Metro South/West WDA, 2010 and 2017
Canton Location Quotient
2010 2017 Change
All Industries
Construction 2.97 3.16 +0.19
Wholesale Trade 2.87 3.12 +0.25
Management of Companies 2.25 2.76 +0.52
Manufacturing 1.00 1.06 +0.06
Finance & Insurance 2.43 2.44 +0.01
Health Care & Social Assist. 0.63 0.62 (0.01)
Prof. & Technical Services 0.46 0.60 +0.14
Administrative Services 0.95 0.83 (0.11)
Educational Services 0.47 0.43 (0.04)
Retail 0.45 0.41 (0.04)
Information 1.21 0.84 (0.38)
Accommodation & Food Serv. 0.57 0.50 (0.07)
Other Services 0.97 0.98 +0.01
Public Administration 0.65 0.74 +0.09
Arts, Entertainment & Rec. 0.88 0.86 (0.02)
Transport. & Warehousing 1.53 0.77 (0.76)
Real Estate 0.44 0.79 +0.35
Sources: Massachusetts Executive Office of Workforce and Labor Development, ES-202 Report; RKG Associates
ESTABLISHMENTS
The number of business establishments operating in Canton, the Metro South/West WDA, and
Norfolk County all increased from 2010 to 2017. The town itself added a net gain of 36 businesses, the
majority of which were in the Health Care & Social Assistance sector. Many of these were likely sole
practitioners or small businesses, often involved in outpatient care, elderly care, and other assistance-
type roles that are common in Canton. It should be noted that employment and establishment data
throughout the state were affected by an accounting change within the Health Care and Other Services
sectors between 2012 and 2013. As many of the relevant employees within the out-patient and elderly
care subsectors are sole practitioners, this change drastically affected the number of firms operating
in those sectors.
Outside the Health Care and Other Services sectors affected by the accounting change, local business
establishment growth was modest from 2010 to 2017. Consistent with other parts of Metro Boston,
local manufacturing and construction firms continued a trend towards consolidation. Canton’s
number of construction-related firms shrank from 2010 to 2017 even as the category added more than
900 jobs during that period.
25Source page 27
Table 11: Business Establishments by Selected Sector, 2010-2017
Canton Metro South / West WDA Norfolk County
2010 2017 # Chg. 2010 2017 # Chg. 2010 2017 # Chg.
All Industries 1,065 1,101 +36 34,384 37,252 +2,868 24,321 25,288 +967
Construction 133 131 (2) 2,925 3,042 +117 2,267 2,313 +46
Wholesale Trade 139 103 (36) 2,261 2,095 (166) 1,435 1,329 (106)
Management of
12 14 +2 273 326 +53 129 183 +54
Companies
Manufacturing 57 49 (8) 1,123 1,017 (106) 697 603 (94)
Finance & Insurance 35 41 +6 1,713 1,833 +120 1,159 1,259 +100
Health Care & Social
74 149 +75 3,084 5,193 +2,109 2,060 5,080 +3,020
Assistance
Prof. & Technical
144 162 +18 6,129 6,609 +480 3,003 3,353 +350
Services
Administrative
54 62 +8 1,887 2,079 +192 1,177 1,280 +103
Services
Educational Services 22 23 +1 725 892 +167 399 476 +77
Retail 96 92 (4) 3,538 3,419 (119) 2,493 2,453 (40)
Information 14 17 +3 907 1,030 +123 437 499 +62
Accommodation &
64 61 (3) 2,067 2,184 +117 1,469 1,580 +111
Food Services
Other Services 129 98 (31) 5,112 4,469 (643) 5,778 2,730 (3,048)
Public Administration 12 19 +7 352 427 +75 253 317 +64
Arts, Entertainment &
19 20 +1 570 672 +102 343 398 +55
Rec.
Transport. &
23 25 +2 460 560 +100 404 493 +89
Warehousing
Real Estate 35 34 (1) 1,127 1,252 +125 754 867 +113
Sources: Massachusetts Executive Office of Workforce and Labor Development, ES-202 Report; RKG Associates
WAGES
The average annual wage for Canton workers grew to $76,804 in 2017, a 21 percent increase from 2010.
Despite remaining slightly lower than the WDA’s average annual wage of $78,624, Canton’s growth
rate was stronger than the WDA’s 16 percent wage growth. The fastest growing wage categories in
Canton tended to be its largest and those with strong employment growth: Wholesale Trade (+32
percent), Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (+28 percent), Construction (+22 percent), and
Management of Companies (+11 percent), among others. These industries are leading the charge in
Canton’s expansion into higher-tech, knowledge economy jobs. Many firms in these sectors are
located in the Route 138 Corridor.
Canton’s unique “smart building” cluster within the Construction employment sector has made it a
wages outlier versus the WDA and Norfolk County. The average employee in Canton’s Construction
sector took home nearly $97,000 in 2017, 21.7 percent more than the average Construction sector
employee in the WDA.
26Source page 28
Table 12: Average Annual Wages by Selected Sector, 2010-2017
Canton Metro South / West WDA Norfolk County
2010 2017 % Chg. 2010 2017 % Chg. 2010 2017 % Chg.
All Industries $63,492 $76,804 21% $67,912 $78,624 16% $54,912 $64,272 17%
Construction $79,196 $96,720 22% $66,924 $79,456 19% $67,392 $81,692 21%
Wholesale Trade $85,020 $112,632 32% $92,040 $116,064 26% $73,892 $97,188 32%
Management of
Companies $83,772 $92,976 11% $104,156 $129,012 24% $82,472 $99,112 20%
Manufacturing $61,724 $68,640 11% $97,760 $108,628 11% $73,684 $83,980 14%
Finance & Insurance $91,468 $94,328 3% $105,248 $125,268 19% $82,056 $104,780 28%
Health Care & Social
Assist. $41,496 $42,432 2% $52,988 $53,092 0% $55,432 $50,700 -9%
Prof. & Technical
Services $78,572 $100,360 28% $113,932 $136,760 20% $98,124 $118,612 21%
Administrative
Services $25,636 $36,608 43% $40,664 $50,596 24% $40,508 $51,532 27%
Educational Services $45,292 $56,992 26% $52,260 $60,216 15% $49,504 $56,628 14%
Retail $38,428 $37,596 -2% $30,108 $35,568 18% $29,120 $34,892 20%
Information $66,612 $77,584 16% $107,328 $122,876 14% $70,772 $85,280 20%
Accomm. & Food Serv. $21,684 $22,568 4% $20,176 $24,544 22% $18,096 $22,308 23%
Other Services $42,380 $49,504 17% $33,384 $40,612 22% $26,988 $39,000 45%
Public Administration $59,176 $73,164 24% $63,856 $79,404 24% $57,668 $74,620 29%
Arts, Entertainment &
Rec. $18,460 $28,236 53% $35,880 $43,784 22% $41,704 $51,220 23%
Transport. &
Warehousing $36,140 $53,820 49% $45,344 $52,676 16% $47,008 $52,260 11%
Real Estate $47,892 $69,212 45% $74,516 $77,116 3% $50,440 $64,428 28%
Sources: Massachusetts Executive Office of Workforce and Labor Development, ES-202 Report; RKG Associates
As noted in the Incomes section of this report, changes in local wage data have not occurred
simultaneously with changes in residents’ incomes, reiterating the lack of overlap between Canton
residents and workers. The addition of higher-paying jobs in fields like construction technology and
scientific research and development has spurred average wage growth that has significantly outpaced
the household income growth of local residents. The median household income in Canton grew by
just 7.7 percent from 2010 to 2017, barely more than one-third the growth rate in local wages.
EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS
Projections from the Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development (EOLWD)
offers insight on which employment categories can expect to see the most job growth in the decade
ahead. In the Metro South/West WDA, the EOLWD projects that as many as 53,000 additional roles
will be created by 2026. 10 The largest drivers of employment growth will be those sectors that already
form the backbone of the WDA’s economy: Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (+12,900
10 Massachusetts EOLWD Labor Market Information, Industry Projections for Metro South/West WDA, 2016-2026
27Source page 29
jobs or 17.7 percent), Health Care (+11,900 jobs or 16.4 percent), and Educational Services (+9,400 jobs
or 16.0 percent).
Canton’s share of the WDA’s job growth may be relatively small – between 700 and 800 jobs, according
to estimates by EMSI. 11 This would represent a significant slowdown versus the employment growth
seen over the last decade, down from nearly 11 percent to just over 3 percent total growth. Projections
may overstate the forward-looking impacts of Reebok’s 2017 move to Boston; the resulting loss of
nearly 800 positions in the Wholesale Trade sector within three months certainly does not mean that
the sector is assured to lose thousands more jobs in the years to come. Still, with projected job losses
in Reebok’s Wholesale Trade sector removed, Canton’s projected job growth rate through 2026 is just
six percent, well below the WDA’s 8.6 percent growth projection. These projections highlight the
challenges faced by suburban employment bases with aging commercial real estate inventories.
Reinvention of these spaces will be critical to remaining competitive with more dynamic urban
commercial centers; for most growing firms, low-cost space will not be enough to draw them to single-
use environments that lack transit connectivity and other amenities.
The key drivers of Canton’s employment growth in the decade to come are likely to be those industries
that have led its economy since 2010 (Table 13). The fastest growing sector from 2010 to 2017,
Construction is set to add the most local jobs by 2026, up to nearly 900 new positions. 12 Professional
and Scientific Services may add an additional 180-plus jobs. Canton’s relatively small Health Care
employment base is projected to add around 400 roles by 2026, mostly in subsectors like Ambulatory
Services and Nursing/Residential Care Facilities.
Gains in these employment sectors may help offset potential contraction in others, including Finance
& Insurance, Information, and Manufacturing, among others. The largest potential job loss category
(excluding the aforementioned Wholesale Trade category, which has projections likely influenced by
the Reebok move) is Finance & Insurance, which may shed as many as 231 jobs or 13 percent of its
local employment base. This may be due to a rapidly-increasing level of automation and a high level
of “transferability” – in many cases, positions can easily be outsourced or moved to less expensive
regions. This is not necessarily unique to Canton. EMSI projects that Massachusetts as a whole will
see experience a net loss of jobs in Finance & Insurance in the years until 2026.
11 EMSI is an economic modeling and data analytics service based in Moscow, ID.
12 EMSI Industry Tables, 2016-2026
28Source page 30
Table 13: Projected Jobs by Selected Sector , 2017-2026
Canton
New Jobs
2017 Jobs % Chg.
by 2026
All Industries 22,735 713 3%
Construction 3,012 894 30%
Health Care & Social Assist. 1,824 407 22%
Other Services 680 258 38%
Prof. & Technical Services 1,773 182 10%
Transport. & Warehousing 305 114 37%
Public Administration 470 82 17%
Retail 950 61 6%
Administrative Services 1,166 16 1%
Educational Services 1,018 11 1%
Accomm. & Food Serv. 810 -7 -1%
Real Estate 247 -20 -8%
Arts, Entertainment & Rec. 468 -49 -10%
Manufacturing 1,930 -65 -3%
Information 902 -98 -11%
Management of Companies 2,455 -121 -5%
Finance & Insurance 1,836 -231 -13%
Wholesale Trade 2,888 -762 -26%
Sources: Jobs data via Massachusetts Executive Office of Workforce and Labor Development,
ES-202 Report; Projections via EMSI; RKG Associates
Projections of local employment growth and contraction do not, however, account for the market-
moving potential of the former Reebok headquarters facility. With the square footage to accommodate
perhaps as many as 1,000 workers, the facility’s potential impacts upon the town’s employment base
are likely to be substantial – especially if it is occupied by a single user. Today, most office and flex
space within the Study Corridor is unlikely to compete with the former Reebok facility for users, given
its aging inventory and access challenges. Job growth within the Corridor is likely to carry on
regardless of the Reebok site’s future use, but if new businesses complement those in the Study
Corridor, there could be multiplicative effects on the Corridor’s growth. For example, if the Reebok
site were to be occupied by a single large financial institution, the increased demand for space and
employees on Dan Road or elsewhere in the Corridor may be minimal. However, if the Reebok site
were occupied by a medical research and development operation, the Study Corridor’s existing
medical R&D cluster may be amplified and become more attractive to prospective firms and site
selection professionals.
UNEMPLOYMENT TRENDS
Unemployment in Canton has fully recovered from the 2008 recession, reaching a new post-2000 low
of 2.3 percent in April 2017. The local unemployment rate grew in mid-2017 with the Reebok
relocation, but recovered quickly in the following year, never surpassing the state’s higher
unemployment rate. Through the first six months of 2019, the State estimates that an average of 350
29Source page 31
jobseekers lived at Canton at any one time. Canton’s unemployment rate has historically tracked
closely with that of Norfolk County, and slightly higher than the Metro South/West WDA rate. In
today’s strong regional economy, the unemployment rates for Canton, Norfolk County, the WDA,
and the state have all clustered within the 2.5 and 3.5 percent range.
Figure 7: Unemployment Rate Trends, 2008-2018
9%
8%
7% 7.4%
7.1%
6% 6.4%
6.0% 5.9%
5%
5.2%
4.8%
4%
4.2%
3% 3.6%
3.3%
3.0%
2%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Canton Norfolk County WDA Massachusetts
Sources: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development, Labor Market Information; RKG Associates
COMMUTING INFLOWS AND OUTFLOWS
Canton’s working residents and the workers that fill Canton’s jobs are two virtually disparate groups.
The US Census’ Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics analysis estimated that in 2015, just
five percent of Canton’s nearly 24,000 employees lived in the town itself. 13 While many American
suburbs do tend to have a relatively small number of residents that live and work in the same
community, Canton’s proportion is uniquely small. In Stoughton, 12 percent of workers live locally,
19 percent in Milton, and 10 percent in Norwood. This discrepancy is especially notable given
Canton’s sizable employment base, which is nearly double the size of Stoughton’s and almost four
times as large as Milton’s. 14
Canton’s high proportion of inbound and outbound commuters may indicate a historical mismatch
between the skills of its resident workforce and those demanded by the firms that located there. As a
relatively wealthy community, many of Canton’s households have typically earned higher incomes
13 US Census, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics database, 2015
14 Massachusetts Executive Office of Workforce and Labor Development, ES-202 Tables; RKG Associates
30Source page 32
by working in the region’s economic centers: Downtown Boston, Cambridge, and in other
municipalities along Route 128, for example. Conversely, firms that have chosen to locate in Canton
may have historically done so in the interest of cost savings. More cost-conscious firms may be less
likely to pay high wages and may seek employees with relatively less education and lower wage
demands – groups that have not traditionally been able to live in many parts of Canton. This dynamic
may now be in flux. Canton-based jobs are seeking top talent to fill roles in research, development,
engineering, and corporate management positions, and paying correspondingly higher wages.
Simultaneously, young professionals have found Canton to be an attractive opportunity to purchase
starter homes due to its relative affordability (although Canton overall remains a high-cost
community). Economic development efforts in Canton and in the Route 138 Corridor specifically may
seek to add housing and amenities that allow more of the town’s employees the option of living near
their work, perhaps within walking or biking distance. This could have numerous economic benefits
(capturing income and sales tax impacts, spurring new development of retail and service businesses),
as well as a potential reduction in commuting car trips.
Figure 8: Canton Commuting Patterns, 2015
Approx. Approx.
23,800 11,000
People work in Canton Employed people live in Canton
5% 95% 89%
Commute from
11%
Live in Canton Commute
elsewhere Work in Canton
elsewhere
Boston 8% Boston 29%
Brockton 5% Quincy 4%
Stoughton 3% Norwood 3%
Quincy 3% Cambridge 2%
Randolph 2% Brockton 2%
Weymouth 2% Braintree 2%
Taunton 2% Stoughton 2%
Norwood 2% Newton 2%
Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics 2015, RKG Associates
31Source page 33
MARKET & DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY
The following section presents data and analysis on the real estate market within the town of Canton
and specifically within the Route 138 Study Corridor area. The Corridor’s existing real estate
inventory, as captured by the most recent assessors’ database, is examined to understand changes in
value, density, and land use over time and across locations. Recent market data on vacancy,
absorption, and prevailing rents/prices provide perspective on where demand exists in Canton and
the broader regional market today. Finally, a parcel-level review of vacancies, proposed
developments, and potential development sites offers perspective on where growth could happen
next.
DEVELOPMENT TRENDS ANALYSIS
According to data provided by Canton’s Assessors Office, the Study Corridor was home to roughly
5.1 million square feet of developed space in 2018. Development in the Corridor has been almost
exclusively single-use commercial space. Excluding vacant and exempt parcels, approximately 91
percent of the Corridor’s acreage and 92 percent of its built square footage is classified as industrial,
office, or retail. The largest land use category is industrial. With over 3.3 million square feet of
developed space on 412 acres, industrial uses set the tone for development in most parts of the
Corridor. As industrial space is traditionally a low-density use – large floor plates in one-or two-story
buildings, with ample space needed for trucks and distribution activities – the Corridor’s low overall
density is heavily influenced by the presence of laboratories, factories, and distribution centers.
Zoning requirements (analyzed in the Zoning section of this report) spread already-low land uses out
even further, as facilities must meet parking, setback, and lot coverage requirements after accounting
for the area’s numerous wetlands encumbrances.
Table 14: Route 138 Study Corridor’s Built Inventory, 2018
Properties Acreage Built SF FAR 15
Industrial 54 412 3,343,305 0.19
Residential 34 36 228,631 0.15
Office 24 106 972,138 0.21
Retail 22 38 190,223 0.12
Education 9 20 138,039 0.16
Mixed-Use 3 2 42,565 0.49
Vacant or Undevelopable 21 154 0 -
Total Taxable 167 767 4,914,901 0.18
Sources: Canton Assessors Database; RKG Associates
15 Floor-Area-Ratio, or FAR, is defined as a property’s gross built square feet as a proportion of its ground square footage.
For example, a 25,000 square foot building on a 50,000 square foot property – regardless of its height - would have an FAR
of 0.5.
32Source page 34
The Corridor has seen relatively little in the way of new construction over the last decade. The vast
majority of commercial structures are considered to be “aging,” built in the 90s, 80s, or earlier. In many
cases older structures have transitioned into their second or third life stages, as original tenants have
moved on and reinvestment would be required to attract new, top-tier tenants. The Corridor’s
continued low vacancy rate, however, makes clear that its aging commercial real estate is meeting a
demand for lower-cost options with strong auto-accessibility to Boston and its highway network.
Part of what sets Canton apart from similarly-sized towns across Massachusetts is its strong
employment base, and its correspondingly high commercial tax receipts, which help to keep
residential taxes lower than many of Canton’s neighbors. While jobs and businesses exist in many of
Canton’s neighborhoods, the Route 138 Corridor is the key driver of the town’s commercial tax base
– despite being home to less than half of its jobs. Much of this impact is due to the Corridor’s industrial
uses. While large industrial structures tend to have the lowest dollar value per square foot of any
major land use type, they can be significant drivers of overall fiscal value. Buildings like those on Dan
Road, John Road, New Boston Drive, Pequot Way, and others can be fiscally lucrative in that they pay
large amounts of taxes due to their size, and tend to require very little in municipal services in return.
According to an RKG review of tax receipts and assessors’ data, the Corridor may drive approximately
12 percent ($9.1 million) of the town’s annual tax receipts overall, but 57 percent ($8.1 million) of its
annual commercial tax receipts.
The fiscal benefits that these industrial land uses bring are not without tradeoffs, however. Due to
their large land requirements, sprawling footprints, and relatively strict zoning requirements, these
structures tend to breed isolation. Zoning makes it difficult or impossible for employees to live within
walking, biking, or even a short drive distance, and spreads workers out so much as to make transit
service impractical. This effectively mandates that workers drive cars, which correspondingly
worsens traffic and cuts off employers from workers that cannot afford to or do not want to drive. The
spread-out employee base also makes it difficult to justify the development of clusters of food, retail,
and service businesses to serve them.
Contrary to some other Boston-area suburbs, development in the Route 138 Study Corridor has not
shifted towards higher densities (nor higher values) in recent years. While this may be a function of
demand, it is also likely a result of zoning, according to stakeholder interviews. Just five structures
have been built new or heavily refurbished since 2008, with a cumulative density of just 0.12 FAR –
less than that of the Corridor as a whole.
33Source page 35
Table 15: Structures Built or Refurbished in Study Corridor Since 2008
Acreage Built SF FAR Assessed Value*
Total 59.4 298,333 0.12 $77,139,600
43 Kelly Way - Canton Point Age-Restricted Condos 9.3 113,837 0.28 $28,147,100
933 Turnpike - Prestige Car Wash 1.7 10,697 0.14 $1,390,900
1032 Turnpike - Office over Retail 0.7 13,750 0.45 $2,621,700
1010 Turnpike - Premier Fence Warehouse & Showroom 7.3 19,560 0.06 $2,068,000
1 Del Pond Drive - Orchard Cove Continuing Care Center 40.4 140,489 0.08 $42,911,900
*Orchard Cove lists an assessed value but is classified as tax exempt by the Town of Canton
Sources: Canton Assessors Database; RKG Associates
Figure 9: Route 138 Corridor Complete Projects Since 2008
From top left: Canton Woods (43 Kelly Way), 933 Turnpike, 1032 Turnpike, 1010 Turnpike, 1 Del Pond Drive
Sources: Canton Assessors’ Database
While relatively little new residential development has taken place in the Corridor over the last
decade, the area is home to several hundred existing residential units. Stagecoach Village/Indian
Woods Way, Lamplighter Village, Canton Arboretum/Woodfield Commons, and Turtle Brook Way
are among the residential developments that provide the Corridor with a wide array of housing
options. The Turtle Brook Way condominium development, begun in 2007, added some of the area’s
newest multi-family housing with the completion of more condos in 2016. These are directly adjacent
to the Study Corridor.
Notably, the only new residential products that have come online within the Study Corridor since
2008 have been age-restricted. The last new units to enter the open market did so in 2007 at Canton
Woods (1 Windsor Woods Lane). There have however, been some new market rate units added in the
vicinity of the study area, primarily single-family, detached homes to the east of Route 138. Across
Canton, around 225 single-family units were built or heavily refurbished between 2008 and 2018,
according to the Assessor. Near the Corridor, these included homes on Tracywood Road, Autumn
Circle, Bayberry Road, and others. The Prynne Hills apartment development, completed in 2013,
34Source page 36
delivered 196 units in Canton and an additional 275-plus units across the town line in Randolph, and
is approximately 1.8 miles east of the Corridor’s Randolph Street intersection. Older housing
developments just outside the Study Corridor include Blue Hills Village (98 units), Brightview Canton
(160 age-restricted/assisted living units), Blue Hill Commons (53 units), and others.
DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE & BUILDING PERMITS
Currently in-process and proposed projects brought to the Town planner have included:
925 Turnpike Street – proposed hotel, auto repair garage – status pending
2 Meetinghouse Road – four proposed residential condominiums – permitted
738 Turnpike Street – proposed daycare – under construction
980 Turnpike Street – 32,000 square foot steel storage building behind existing structure –
permitted
2239 Turnpike Street – proposed 27 condominiums at former Connors Wayside Furniture –
under construction
225 Turnpike Street – vacant former Bay State Technology School – status pending
As with development activity within the Corridor in the previous decade, proposed developments
are for a variety of uses, typically at small scale, and are not likely to be immediately catalytic for
new economic development in the area. Most proposals are on parcels that will involve adaptive
reuse of existing structures, or infill development beside existing structures.
Outside the Study Corridor, a number of permitted multi-family residential projects will deliver as
many as 350 units, which may help Canton to keep its relative housing affordability advantage
versus competing communities. 16
16 Town of Canton Planning Department
35Source page 37
Figure 10: Selected Development Proposals, 2019
Sources: Town of Canton
RESIDENTIAL MARKET
While the Study Corridor is home to a limited share of Canton’s residential real estate, an
understanding of the entire town’s housing dynamics is critical to evaluating the Corridor’s potential
for different land uses in the future. Canton’s residential real estate market has experienced a strong
comeback since the Great Recession of 2008-2010, with the median single-family home sale surpassing
its 2005 pre-recession high in 2017. Demand has driven the creation of over 600 new housing units
since 2010, and while not necessarily in the Corridor itself, additional condominiums, apartments, and
single-family homes are reportedly in the pipeline for other areas of Canton.
Canton’s emergence as a relatively affordable option for prospective homebuyers has fed this growth.
While the town’s high quality of life, strong schools, and relative proximity to Boston have certainly
played a role in driving demand, the strong market for new housing has likely come about due to the
increasing unaffordability of some comparable communities. Milton, a community slightly closer to
Downtown Boston by car and with service on the Mattapan Trolley extension of the MBTA’s Red Line,
has traditionally had home prices and rents slightly greater than Canton’s. Between 2000 and 2014,
the average premium on a single-family home in Milton versus one in Canton was approximately six
percent; before 2000, Canton was frequently more expensive. 17 Since 2015, however, the premium on
17 The Warren Group
36Source page 38
homes in Milton has ballooned: it was 25 percent more expensive to buy a single-family home in
Milton than in Canton in 2016, and in 2018, 30 percent. 18
Figure 11: Median Home Sale Prices, Single-Family Homes
Sources: Banker and Tradesman Town Sale Database, The Warren Group RERS, RKG Associates
While Canton increasingly looks like a “cheapest, closest” option for homebuyers that might
otherwise have considered Milton, the town’s housing costs are on the rise as well. The median sale
price for a single-family home in Canton reached $524,900 in 2018, up 9.6 percent from three years
before and 18.8 percent over five years. These growth rates indicate a strong market, but are actually
below those in neighboring Stoughton (+ 26.5% over five years), Norwood (+30.3%), and Westwood
(+35.0%).
Condominium prices have risen to surpass pre-recession levels as well, although price appreciation
has been more modest: 10.8 percent over the last five years, reaching a 2018 median of $321,225. That
figure actually represents a slight decline versus the 2015 median. This recent stagnation in
condominium prices may be due to a relative lack of new product and an aging inventory; many of
the units added since 2015 have been age-restricted, which typically come online at lower prices than
would new construction, market rate units. Forthcoming construction/redevelopment of
condominiums in Canton Center will likely move the median condominium price upwards in the next
three to five years. The strong interest in buying opportunities, whether single-family or
condominium, have pushed owner-occupied units to comprise an even larger share of Canton’s
already owner-dominated housing market. 77 percent of housing units are owner-occupied, up from
18 Ibid
37Source page 39
74 percent in 2010. It is rare that a community gaining young professional and post-retirement
residents would see an increase in the role of ownership housing, as these are typically groups that
are disproportionately housed in rental units.
Figure 12: Median Home Sale Prices, Condominiums
Sources: Banker and Tradesman Town Sale Database, The Warren Group RERS, RKG Associates
Rental units represent an aging housing product in Canton, with relatively little investment in new
units since 2010. Like sale prices, rents have risen since the Great Recession, but have not seen the
same levels of appreciation. The average monthly rent across all of Canton’s rental units in 2018 was
$2,369, up 6.9 percent over three years and 21.6 percent versus five years prior, when the local rental
market was just beginning to recover from recession. A non-scientific review of 69 online listings in
June 2019 showed a housing market heavily dominated by 2-bedroom units, with an average asking
rent of $2.22 per square foot per month. The majority of units listed for rent were in structures with
at least 100 homes, including Prynne Hills Apartments, Waterfall Hills at Canton, Woodfield
Commons, and Canton Woods, at the southern end of the Study Corridor. 19
19 Loopnet, Zillow Research, Apartments.com
38Source page 40
Figure 13: Median Monthly Rents
$2,640
$2,489
$2,307
$2,088
$2,069
Sources: Zillow Research Rental Value Index Seasonally-Adjusted Time Series, RKG Associates
Overall, these relatively large apartment developments play a smaller role in Canton’s housing market
than similar developments do in Norfolk County as a whole. Just 4.7 percent of Canton’s housing
units are in structures with 50 or more units, compared to Norfolk County where these comprise 8.3
percent of the housing stock. Nearly 16 percent of Canton’s housing units are in structures of between
five and 19 units. Some of these are in developments within the Study Corridor, like at Lamplighter
Village, a collection of five such buildings.
Figure 14: Changes in Housing Tenure, 2010-2017
100%
18% 17% 13% 14%
26% 23% 25% 29%
80% 43% 42%
60%
40% 82% 83% 87% 86% Renter-Occupied Share
74% 77% 75% 71%
57% 58% Owner-Occupied Share
20%
0%
2010 2017 2010 2017 2010 2017 2010 2017 2010 2017
Canton Milton Norwood Stoughton Westwood
Sources: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, 2006-2010 & 2013-2017, RKG Associates
39